Watts Capital Partners, LLC

Private Investment Office. #Risk-ManagedPerformance

[Watts Capital Partners, LLC @WattsCapital]

@PerezEnMexico @WSJ The violence following the elimination of Oseguera looks more like the cartels striking back at the government. The cartels threaten to destroy the tourist trade and raise citizen opposition to the government’s crackdowns.

[Watts Capital Partners, LLC @WattsCapital]

@RickRicchibx @PortfolioBoss I have gold for investment. To pay in the grocery store post melt-down, I have pre-1965 dimes and quarters, which are 90% silver. In a worse meltdown, barter is more likely than using silver coins. Stockpile, food, fuel, medicine, personal items.

[Watts Capital Partners, LLC @WattsCapital]

Newsletter - Broadband Communities https://t.co/YebkqWRU5F

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Russia has reportedly asked Elon Musk to help build a $65 billion undersea rail tunnel linking Russia and Alaska.

The tunnel would be named the “Putin-Trump Tunnel.”

[Investing.com @Investingcom]

⚠️WHERE ARE WE NOW?

$SPY $QQQ

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🚨US federal government jobs are set to DROP by another 100,000 in Sept and Oct.

This will bring the total 2025 decline to -200,000.

Federal employment would then fall to 2.81 million, or 1.8% of total employment, the smallest share since 1939.👇
https://t.co/OPnHZqsNXK

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Is the Buffett rule sounding the alarm? Since the 1990s, global financial assets have grown from 75% to over 200% of world GDP. (via Goldman)

[Barchart @Barchart]

Tech Stocks just saw a weekly inflow of more than $10 Billion, the largest in history

[Monetary McFly 🪰 @Monetaryguy589]

We have a $1.4T Instrument Discrepancy occurring in the Fed Funds market currently

This discrepancy skewing $1.4T negative as of 2Q - indicates shortages of Liabilities- Cash Deposits. The Bills collateral situation is robust needless to say. QT has removed this liquidity

Leading up to 2008 the discrepancy skewed towards Assets - Collateral in the system - as excess liquidity was seeking better collateral as the market broke down

Today, these liabilities are way to opaque with zero haircut offshore Repo also acting as Cash

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

⚠️OH MY LORD:

The Warren Buffett Indicator just hit 221%, another ALL-TIME HIGH.

It now stands 80 percentage points above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak.

Never in history has the US stock market’s rise outpaced economic growth this fast.👇
https://t.co/OPnHZqsNXK

[Mario @PawlowskiMario]

⚠️ WARNING FROM A MAN WHO SAW IT BEFORE

I saw this shit before. With my own fucking eyes.

Poland. 1989.
Communism collapses. Chaos. Overnight everything flips. People lose everything. A few smart and ruthless ones buy state assets for pennies. Boom. Billionaires born.

Russia. Early 90s.
Same fucking pattern. But ten times more brutal. The whole system collapses. People starve. Oligarchs rise. All because they planned it that way. Manufactured collapse. Shock therapy.
The masses suffer. A few monsters get rich enough to own nations.

Fast forward.

United States. 2008.
Real estate bubble pops.
People lose homes. Banks get bailed out.
Wall Street buys back everything that Main Street built.
Rich get richer.
Middle class gets wiped out.
And no one goes to jail.
America didn’t learn a fucking thing.

Now look around.

OPEN YOUR FUCKING EYES!

Gold is at historic highs.
Real estate is cracking again.
More sellers than buyers.
Developers bidding 800K on 1.5M mansions in Florida (my friend just showed me his bid) and laughing while they wait.
Real Estate Prices are not just falling
Confidence is collapsing.

And Trump and his billionaire buddies?
They want the crash.
They are waiting for it.
They are engineering it.

Because when the economy burns
They buy everything from the ashes
With cash
While you’re still figuring out how to afford gas

They don’t care about you
They care about timing
And right now
They smell blood

THIS IS YOUR FINAL FUCKING WARNING

If the system collapses again
The billionaires will feast
The rest of you will beg
And they’ll say it’s your fault

It’s the same playbook
Poland 1989
Russia 1991
America 2008
America 2025?

They’re not saving the country
They’re prepping to own it
All of it

And if you’re still sleeping through this
You’re not just a victim
You’re a volunteer

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

The arrogance of today’s retail investor base when it comes to information they dismiss or opinions they disagree with, due primarily to stock price performance, is hitting ATH’s every day now.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The cover of this week’s edition of The Economist magazine … and it concerns advanced rather than developing countries.

#economy #debt @TheEconomist

[Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian]

BREAKING: Trump just hit his lowest approval rating ever.

Officially surpassing his January 6th, 2021 lows.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Buy-the-dip activity is incredibly strong:

Investors bought +$3.9 billion in US equities last week following 3 straight weeks of selling, according to BofA.

Net inflows to single stocks hit +$4.1 billion, the 5th highest since 2008, and the largest on record for a week when the S&P 500 fell at least -1%.

This was driven by institutional inflows of +$4.4 billion, the most since November 2022.

Retail investors bought +$1.1 billion, marking their 2nd weekly purchase out of the last 6.

Meanwhile, hedge funds sold -$1.6 billion, posting their 5th consecutive weekly sale.

Investors are eager to buy dips.

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

U.S. margin debt just hit $1.1 trillion, the highest ever. That means investors have borrowed over a trillion dollars to buy more stocks. In September alone, they borrowed another $67 billion. And now, the SEC is being asked to approve something called 5x leveraged ETFs, which would let people borrow five times the amount they invest. In simple terms: investors are already loaded with debt, and now some firms want to hand them an even bigger credit card.

Margin debt is basically money borrowed from a broker to buy more investments. If your portfolio goes up, you make extra money. But if it goes down you lose faster and if it falls too much, you’re forced to sell to pay back what you owe. That’s called a margin call. So, when margin debt hits record highs like this, it means a lot of people are investing with borrowed money. It works great in a bull market, but it makes the system fragile when prices start falling.

Right now, margin debt equals about 2% of the total value of the S&P 500, higher than during the dot-com bubble in 2000. That doesn’t automatically mean a crash is coming, but it does mean everyone’s taking on more risk. When markets are full of borrowed money, small dips can snowball into bigger ones, because people have to sell to cover their loans. That selling creates even more pressure on prices

And here’s where it gets risky, some firms want to launch 5x leveraged ETFs, funds that would let traders magnify stock or crypto moves by five times each day. So if Tesla moves 2%, that ETF could move 10%. It sounds exciting, but it also means a small market drop could wipe out an investor in a day. The U.S. currently limits leverage to 2x for safety reasons, but these proposals would go far beyond that. If approved, they could make the market even more sensitive to fast, sharp swings.

We already saw what can happen when everyone is leveraged at once. On October 10th, crypto markets lost $19 billion in just 24 hours. Over 1.6 million traders were wiped out because prices dropped, triggering automatic liquidations. Once that started, everything snowballed prices fell faster, trading systems froze and there was almost no liquidity left to stop the fall.

Now imagine that kind of event in traditional markets where stocks and crypto are more connected than ever. If one side breaks, it could easily spill over to the other. That’s why regulators are watching closely approving 5x ETFs in an already leveraged environment could turn normal market pullbacks into chaos. This all just means we’re in a phase where confidence is high and risk taking is everywhere. Leverage isn’t necessarily evil but it just magnifies everything. When things are good, it makes them great. But when things turn, it makes them worse.

[Vlad @VladTheInflator]

Apartment rents are collapsing

[John Tuld @BradHuston]

"Moving out of gold and into bonds here is probably the most compelling diversification option that you can do right now." - Bob Elliot.

I actually had some folks in disbelief this was said on CNBC yesterday about gold. Here's the receipts.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Gold is now the best performing major asset class over the last 20 years with an annualized return of over 11%.

Video: https://t.co/0xFFKOW8Xp

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🚨US layoffs are running at RECESSION levels:

US employers have announced 946,426 job cuts in 2025, the most since the 2020 CRISIS

This is the 2nd-largest total since the Financial Crisis.

Over the last 36 years, only 4 times have seen higher layoffs.👇
https://t.co/5z1KMHF7Ay