Tesla Q3 deliveries: 486,532. Consensus: 486,761.
A gap of 229 cars. Some headlines called it a beat, some called it a miss.
Read the number, not the headline.
Which headline did you see first?
#Tesla#TSLA
The $10,000 Test:
A $10,000 position down 50% needs a 100% gain to get back to $10,000.
Down 20% needs 25%.
Losses and gains aren't symmetrical, so limiting losses matters more than finding winners.
Biggest drawdown you've recovered from?
#Investing#RiskManagement
Today in one picture:
CPI: hotter
Dollar: 17-month high
Yields: higher
Gold: down
Chips: down
One number at 8:30am moved all of it.
Which move hit your portfolio hardest?
#HotCPI#StockMarket
Market Autopsy, Oct 9:
T-Mobile -13.3%
AST SpaceMobile -10.5%
AT&T -9.8%
Verizon -8.8%
When a whole sector falls together, it's rarely one company. It's the business model being repriced.
Would you buy that dip without knowing why?
#Telecom#StockMarket
Last week the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.36%, its highest since April 2002. The S&P 500 set a record the same week.
Stocks and bonds are telling different stories. One of them will have to give.
Which are you listening to?
#Bonds#InterestRates
Bumble jumped 55% yesterday on a $1.3 billion buyout.
The stock almost everyone gave up on just got bought.
Which beaten-down company do you think gets acquired next?
$BMBL #Stocks
The Other Side:
Most new investors don't need a better stock picker. They need a smaller position size.
How much of your account is in your single biggest position?
#Investing#RiskManagement
IonQ just raised $2 billion by selling stock at $40 a share.
When a company sells its own shares, it's telling you the price looks good to them.
Dilution isn't always bad. But always ask who's selling and why.
$IONQ #QuantumComputing
Grocery receipt in 2019: one bag of food.
Grocery receipt in 2026: one bag of food, emotionally.
What item shocked you most at checkout lately?
#Inflation#CostOfLiving
Bank of America: $1.2 billion in fines.
It didn't report $5B+ in suspicious transactions on time, and had handed much of that monitoring to third parties.
I work in compliance and security. You can outsource the work. You can't outsource the responsibility.
$BAC #Banks
Oil is back above $90 a barrel after a tanker attack pushed WTI up 3% on Oct 8.
Energy stocks are up about 37% this year, roughly level with tech, with far less attention.
Why do you think energy gets so little airtime?
#Oil#Energy
Inflation is 3.7%.
The 5-year Treasury is paying about 5.15%, the most since 2007.
Your bank savings account is paying... check it.
What rate is your savings actually earning?
#HotCPI#Savings
Beating earnings estimates is usually priced in. Raising guidance usually isn't.
That one difference explains a lot of confusing earnings-day moves.
Which do you look at first?
#Earnings#Investing