Weasel Words

I like having fun with politics.

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@RightWI1776 Democrats have won the early vote in Texas for one day over the past four cycles. There is never a Dem firewall in Texas. And Dems sometimes win Election Day (Beto 2018 for instance). This year the R lead is tiny.

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@ArthurMorganTX If you want incorrect numbers and very odd analysis, he’s definitely the guy to listen to.

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@BlackLabelAdvsr Posting a graphic with numbers that are over 500,000 off does not inspire confidence that you know what’s going on, you know. Not to mention a nearly 20% error on voters with no primary history.

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@PeterWalkerSA @Dennis_Porter_ We’ve been hearing this for decades. Hasn’t happened yet. Dems are now more capitalist than Rs, really. Rs are the party of government control and picking winners and losers.

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@jake_thegoodman @polypup12387074 HPVs aren’t 80% of IPEV.

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@onwardmyhawkmen But if you’re so incredibly brainwashed as to think there are Communists around, of course you’re going to think a lot of insane things. Like, for instance, Talarico (a Presbyterian seminarian) being ‘demonic’. D’s always rebuild the US after R’s trash it, over and over again.

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@onwardmyhawkmen Look back decades. Any D going back to at least LBJ and almost certainly FDR would be at home in today’s D party. Nearly no R from before 2010 would be welcome in today’s R party. Reagan would be a moderate D.

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@bweezybird @GrantMa25066011 Trump had much higher approval ratings in 2018 than now. But, if you mean more people in 2018 were deluded into thinking it was possible for Trump to be anything but a terrible president, you would have a point. By now, he’s clearly just a total disaster.

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@bestgtor88 @GrantMa25066011 Paxton is the illegal mess. Maybe he should go after himself?

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@Test126863 @GrantMa25066011 And yet he had higher approval ratings and a more unified Republican Party than Paxton does, and was a far better campaigner.

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@MarkGar7303 @zivjelee Please look at the large heavily Hispanic, highly Catholic country just south of Texas. Who is the (quite popular) President? What did she run on? What is that country’s attitude towards LGBTQ+ issues? You’ll note it’s not in line with what you think ‘Hispanics’ will do.

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@nintendom51192 @realPrestonHill That’s not true in Texas. Well over 70% of Texans vote in-person early voting. Election Day has fairly little partisan lean, and Ds win it sometimes.

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@MysteryFountain @realPrestonHill They’re not even ‘plausibly wrong.’ They’re much more totally made up.

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@ladamaenmicasa1 @whycoose @kellwoohoo Not that all Crockett voters are black - certainly not! - but black turnout is fairly high. Don’t think they’re sitting it out.

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@whycoose @kellwoohoo When Crockett asked her voters to vote for Talarico on primary day? And when Talarico is consistent with their values and Paxton is diametrically opposed to them?

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@kellwoohoo Or vote for the libertarian.

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@maps_spams @Thorongil16 Fairly high. Not earth shattering but consistently high.

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@AM_LGH @Thorongil16 Weekend turnout is often down. Its hard to say yet how much down. Travis is doing fine right now compared to average, for instance.

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@bdquinn Oh, absolutely. But right now it looks like both black and Hispanic are up (and white is down). No idea about the various Asian demographic groups, and those will matter, too. I just fine the amount of self-own here amusing. If the chart contradicts the thesis, maybe don’t post?

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@jake_thegoodman @polypup12387074 Texans typically don’t vote on ED - it’s under 30% of the vote, rural or urban. And that chart is showing same-day IPEV, meaning rural IPEV is down. Hoping for a recovery on ED is possible, but the lines would be astronomical.