Having an opinion and being wrong happens all the time. No shame in being wrong. My post below from last year is such a terrible take that it makes me physically laugh.
I’ll never ignore reality though. I have no attachment to any of my opinions. Doesn’t matter if I post it and get 1000 likes. Soon as I am wrong I adapt. I don’t remember who said it originally but “strong opinions loosely held”.
Semis went up 40% in the past 6 weeks alone. Imagine I still had this opinion and doubled down on it?
That would be delusional and what I do think is shameful.
Some people on here have been calling for a crash every single day for the last 7 weeks. Even if the market did crash next week, we’ve gone up 30%. That’s a whole trend lol. That’s a lot.
If I thought the market was going to rip higher, and the whole time I held this opinion the market went down 30%… am I finally right when it turns and goes up?
No I’d be delusional.
If I had the chance to go back in time and tell myself 5 things about the market 8 years ago, this is what they would be.
Ultimately, many of you will have to learn these lessons the hard way.
1. Don't short stocks until you have $1 Million in profit
2. Don't Trade Options
3. Hold your winners, religiously and define your sell rules
4. Master One Setup, just one.
5. If it's red, it's gone. Don't hold a stock that doesn't show a profit from the get go
6. No trading when the market is below the 50SMA
7. Learn how to count
75% of stocks follow the trend of the general market so in an uptrend if you're treating every pullback like the top you're statistically working against yourself every day
Just my opinion but think mistake a lot of traders make is trying a name once w a stop and moving on vs tightening stops and trying it 2-4x to get it right.
There’s a reason you want in, it’s a leader likely. Leaders never make it easy.
My members will see me stalk a name and try it 3x w a smaller total loss than the 1 time buyer who moves on to likely less strong names.
I like a Day 1 of a Rally attempt that has the characteristics of a 100% ATR close up from the Open.
And on top of that the volume had FTD characteristics with regards to being higher than the previous day and above average.
$QQQ 122% ATR HOD and 111% ATR Close. +39% volume
$SPY 112% ATR HOD and 101% ATR Close. +62% volume
The job is as it always is : What stood up the most today? And of those that stood up the most vet them out for other key variables of performance. ie: RS line above 21ema , RSNH, RSNHBP , discernible base with no flaws, top group/theme / emerging group/theme, etc.