Wentz Financial Group is teaming with the United States Marine Corp on their Toy for Tots toy drive this year in effort to make the Holidays brighter for children in need. We are collecting toys until December 15th - feel free to stop by our office until then!
GDP grew at an annualized pace of 4.9% in the third quarter, driven by strong growth in the all important consumer spending component, which makes up 70% of the U.S. economy.
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Stocks fell 2.9% for the worst week since March as Treasury yields rose to new highs. The reason was the Fed projecting higher interest rates for longer and the belief the "neutral rate" is higher than previously thought.
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US stocks finished the week positive and enough to push the index into a new bull market- referred to as a 20% increase from recent lows. Now, investors will look to inflation data and the Fed meeting this week to see if the rally can continue
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The media has been extremely focused on the debt ceiling as we approach the so called "x-date" of the US government defaulting on its debt. However, we expect a deal and markets to shift focus back to the Fed and the prospects of a recession.
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https://t.co/JsfOnaWBPl
Volatility this year has been relatively low. In fact, stocks saw the sixth consecutive week of moving less than (+/-) 1% for the week, this differs with the past three years of high volatility. However, underlying breadth has been weak.
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Investors will shift focus to first quarter earnings which kicks off Friday with the large banks. With the recent banking turmoil, investors will look for remarks on the health of the banking system and how that has affected credit conditions.
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The confidence in the banking system tumbled after two bank failures, causing a further increase in deposit outflow and regulators intervening. While this is happening, there is another debate – what will the Fed do at this week’s meeting?
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Focus quickly shifted from Powell's testimony and the employment report to the banking sector after SVB (15th largest US bank) failed and was taken over by the FDIC. This left investors asking: Are these just two of the first dominos to fall?
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https://t.co/J7blNkODiU
The year-to-date rally in stocks slowed further last week while Treasury yields move back to the highest levels since November. A consistent flow of strong economic data and hawkish comments from Fed policymakers have been the main culprits.
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https://t.co/JOjcPH4Lt9
Stocks rose last week, the NASDAQ saw its fourth consecutive weekly gain as growth continues to outperform value in 2023 due to softer inflation data and the market’s expectation rates will not stay as high as the Fed has projected.
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Markets have not been buying the Fed’s message rates will stay higher for longer, apparent by the 10yr Treasury yield falling to 3.37%, the lowest since September, mostly from deteriorating economic data that is suggesting a recession in 2023.
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https://t.co/KwR80uWI3k
Stocks began the week higher off welcoming inflation data but ultimately moved lower, finishing down 2% after the Fed raised rates another 50 bps and indicated rates will go higher and stay higher for longer than what markets were expecting.
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While investors celebrated the idea rate increases will slow with a recent 16% rally in stocks, another pullback is likely as markets face the reality the Fed will project higher level of peak rates and that rates will stay higher for longer.
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Last week’s earnings reports provided an update on how some of the largest companies are navigating the current environment, including the big five tech companies Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft.
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The next several weeks will be dominated by earnings reports and this week will be the busiest. With depressed sentiment & earnings so far better than expected, a short-term bounce looks likely, but we remain cautious until we see certainty.
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Click below to read more about our thoughts on last week’s inflation report, the market reaction, and the next big event, third quarter earnings season, in our latest weekly update:
https://t.co/JLXRfpSyE5
OPEC+ announced a 2 million bbl/day cut to production, pushing oil 16.5% higher last week. Meanwhile, labor market data showed another 263k jobs were added in September which will keep the Fed on course of aggressively raising rates.
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https://t.co/9GF41e1Zxd
Stocks fell again as investors digested another hot inflation reading and a big earnings miss from FedEx with commentary that suggested the global economy may be slowing sooner/faster. Wednesday will be important to see how the Fed reacts.
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https://t.co/xv2INQhXT0
While rate increases receive the bulk of the attention, another policy tool has been working in the background which is the reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, or quantitative tightening, which will reach peak levels this week.
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https://t.co/hZRNxKL3pg