Anton Wetorp

Trendfollowing macroinvestor

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

I expect a "Operation untwist" from the Fed.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

Markets having a leer at a transition to stagflation last couple of days.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

Growth is not rolling over. So nominal growth is accelerating but central banks are not hiking. Bullish.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

If there are 3000 million barrels in strategic petroleum reserves and 10 million per day supply is lost the reserves will last for 300 days.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

Iran has already shown their hand. They want to open the strait.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

@JackFarley96 Check money supply growth.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

Asia+Europe does not need USD, its the other way around. US cant even fund its debt anymore, thats why Fed started RMP. Asia and Europe need commodities and have A LOT of USD assets they can sell. And they are still doing QT, steeper yields curves will call money home.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

EU 2 year at 2,6% does not mean the market THINK the ECB is hiking 2 times. The market is TELLING ECB they should hike 2 times. Noone wants to buy the 2 year at 2% if you believe inflation is going higher...

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

For 20 years Europe has shot itself in the foot. Now US has started shooting Europe (and itself) in the foot. Maybe this is a turning point and Europe can get their shit together.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

Since US was in goldlocks in the Q1 the inflation impulse might have given us a whiff of reflation. Could explain why US stocks still are pretty resilient and gold pretty weak. YoY growth should tick down in Q2 tho.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

When we get a top in oil and it turn lower the dollar is cooked.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

@Almostismyname @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye And to bearish on friday as the level is ~6800.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

@fejau_inc I think its a lot simpler than that. RoW has beaten inflation and can step on the gas, US still need to brake.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

@DannyDayan5 Gold, oil and copper is up. Looks like stagflation, not deflation. Growth going down with inflation sideways.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

Novo nordisk is down 77% from the top. It was the biggest market cap i Europe, P/E is now 10.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

@darioperkins But how much of the capex is spent in the US and how much go to taiwan+korea?

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

AI seems to be the answer to every single question in macro at the moment. The sentiment is nuts.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

@Callum_Thomas chart says: consensus was wrong for 20 years

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

Where do people imagine inflation come from?
Labor market is slow.
Housing market is slow.
Oil market is slow.
Money growth is slow.
There are no supply disruptions.
It all points to more rate cuts.

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

@moneymenpod Yep bitcoin clearly run on liquidity, especially excess liquidity. Net bond issuance + QT will suck liquidity for years so to me it looks doomed. Pivot in what way?

[Anton Wetorp @Wetorp]

People calling the precious metals rally "the debasement trade" are stupid. Bitcoin is the debasement trade. Last year growth went down, inflation was up/flat and Fed cut rates. Real rate easing + stagflation + falling USD is the perfect setup for gold...