CarpeDiemSilver99

Bressert-style cycle analysis. Miners, metals & markets enthusiast. Views subject to change without notice, pending price & time action. Not financial advice.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

DXY Monthly Cycle View: DXY flipped a monthly %-MACD buy signal, inverse to gold's sell signal.

Jan is a candidate 3Yr CL (& 15Yr HCL), preceded by 4 failed weekly cycles, but hasn't confirmed a CL yet.

DXY & gold could both retest their Jan pivots.
https://t.co/L3mzQVaqLf

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

DXY today taking out its Sep ICL making this the 4th consecutive failed weekly cycle. On week 19 seeking an ICL, perhaps creating a potential positively divergent "3-drive" to a pivot low.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

Gold 15Yr Cycle View: Monthly %MACD flipped a sell signal.

The Jan high is a 15 Yr CH candidate (not yet my base case). A potential retest marginal higher high could make TSI neg-divergent.

Pending an expected DCL, I think short term risk is higher.
https://t.co/YvU63nESG6

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

Prior to $gold's last major long term low... TSI hit -74, RSI(Mod) hit 20.4 and MACD hit -184.8 (pink ovals), and price continued to decline for several months into Dec 2015 HCL.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

Silver:Gold Daily Ratio Cycle View: Silver cash / gold cash is on day 37, in the timing band for a DCL, in a left translated - failed daily cycle #3.

Monday will be day 40, with the prior two DCLs both being day 41. An impending DCL "might" also be an ICL.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

Weekly BTCUSD Cycle View: High volume, on week 17 in intermediate decline seeking either a HCL or early ICL.

A prior bear flag pattern targets near 52.3K.

On closing price basis, momentum is positively divergent.

https://t.co/cUJwzSlw31

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

Weekly BTCUSD Cycle View (revised count): "If" 01 Sep was the prior ICL, this is then Week 22 seeking an ICL.
The low today is a 1.27% Fib retracement of the Apr ICL.
Potential bear flag measured move target near 52, 300.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

Silver Cash Flag Pattern View: Watching a potential bear flag continuation pattern, which seemingly targets a retest of the Mar low.

The orange 150-day MA has been support 5 of the prior 8 candles. A potential close below the 150MA @ 74.25 might trigger the continuation.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

@FibSixOne8 Was seeing that too - if so, measured move to retest the Mar high.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

VIX Daily Cycle View (Update): In cycle decline, VIX has extended out the DCL candidate from earlier this month, now to a late Day 92 count.

Both TSI and RSIMod extended out their positive momentum divergences.

https://t.co/QlQEM1gF1Y

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

VIX Daily Cycle View (update): VIX made another positively divergent lower low yesterday/06 May.

That extends out the DCL/daily cycle low candidate to Day 69 (but is unconfirmed - so lower is still a risk too).

https://t.co/IWNOhdT9eG

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

WTI Crude Oil tagged (pink) support zone, with RSI near lowest daily momentum levels of 2026.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

$SPY Daily Cycle View: Changed my count to consider 19 May as a (early and shallow) Day 50 DCL 1 candidate.

Looks like SPY will open with a Day 07 negatively divergent higher high, as it seeks out a HCH.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

TLT Weekly Cycle View: On week 15, TLT has failed and is in half cycle decline seeking a HCL/half cycle low.

The longest HCL of the prior six intermediate cycles, was week 17 (with the prior being 15).

A bear flag pattern/measured move potentially targets a lower low @ 82.00.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

Noteworthy New TSX Silver Miners ETF: 12 May Global X Silver Miners ETF began trading on TSX/Canada as well, with ticker $SLVX.to (Canadian/TSX listed version of $SIL).

https://t.co/LcCqDhiN45

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

$CDE Weekly Cycle View: Without a weekly close above the declining 10MA, the March low now appears to be just an intermediate HCL (not an ICL).

In cycle decline, breaking below the weekly inclining trend line, CDE on week 26 is LT and seeking an ICL.

https://t.co/TvclV35pih

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

CDE Daily Cycle View: On day 49, CDE gapped below its 10MA, leaving Day 46 as the lower "CH" candidate (unless retested) in a left translated cycle, likely in cycle decline.

A break below the daily inclining trend line puts CDE at risk for its 2nd consecutive failed cycle.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

CDE Daily Cycle View: On day 49, CDE gapped below its 10MA, leaving Day 46 as the lower "CH" candidate (unless retested) in a left translated cycle, likely in cycle decline.

A break below the daily inclining trend line puts CDE at risk for its 2nd consecutive failed cycle.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

DXY Weekly Cycle View: Last week's DCL is a week 14/ W14 HCL candidate, with TSI flipping up & price closing above the 10MA.

In cycle advance (?) starting W16, likely retesting the W09 HCH @ 100.64 - if it breaks above the declining dashed trend line.

https://t.co/nKXcw8e5Wc

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

DXY Daily Cycle View (update): If DXY (Day 07) can close above the daily declining trendline, it could confirm 05 May as the DCL.

Either DXY is in intermediate decline (failed daily cycle) or the DCL could be the ICL (given positive divergences).

https://t.co/gTYTCahcga

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

GDX "If -type" Yearly Cycle Decline View: "If" GDX can't take out its April high, it risks left translating this 4th weekly cycle since the yearly cycle low/YCL Dec 2024.

"If" GDX then takes out the Mar ICL, then this "would be" failed weekly cycle - could carve out a YCL.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

DXY Daily Cycle View (update): If DXY (Day 07) can close above the daily declining trendline, it could confirm 05 May as the DCL.

Either DXY is in intermediate decline (failed daily cycle) or the DCL could be the ICL (given positive divergences).

https://t.co/gTYTCahcga

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

DXY Daily Cycle View: Inching towards the golden Fib level near 97.50 on Day 44, today's positively divergent lower low is accompanied by constricted Bollinger Bands.

Seeking a daily cycle low/DCL on Week 14, which could also be an intermediate HCL candidate.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

VIX Daily Cycle View (update): VIX made another positively divergent lower low yesterday/06 May.

That extends out the DCL/daily cycle low candidate to Day 69 (but is unconfirmed - so lower is still a risk too).

https://t.co/IWNOhdT9eG

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

VIX Daily Cycle View: On Day 64 VIX is in cycle decline, with a positive momentum divergence, seeking a daily cycle low/DCL (prior DCL was Day 64).

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

DXY Daily Cycle View: Inching towards the golden Fib level near 97.50 on Day 44, today's positively divergent lower low is accompanied by constricted Bollinger Bands.

Seeking a daily cycle low/DCL on Week 14, which could also be an intermediate HCL candidate.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

TLT Daily Cycle View: On Day 35 TLT made a positively divergent lower low, and is seeking a half cycle low/HCL.

[CarpeDiemSilver99 @WheatonRiver2CD]

VIX Daily Cycle View: On Day 64 VIX is in cycle decline, with a positive momentum divergence, seeking a daily cycle low/DCL (prior DCL was Day 64).