Idioteque

Fair is foul, and foul is fair.

[日本経済新聞 電子版（日経電子版） @nikkei]

【日経特報】��衛隊、機密システムに感染USB接続　中国系ウイルス１年気づかず
https://t.co/x6uSKkeleX

[マライ・メントライン＠職業はドイツ人 @marei_de_pon]

【AIがつくったものだと、「自分が作成したものを自分で理解できていないので、説明ができない」ということが起こるんですね】
なるほど。こうして広範な知的衰退とか、権力への無自覚な奴隷化とかが進行してゆくのか、と納得できる。たぶん、危機感をしっかり持てる人の割合は少ない。そこが問題だ。

[大場紀章(エネルギーアナリスト) @nuribaon]

ナフサが備蓄対象から外れたのは石油化学業界の要望で、業界は自己責任でやると当時主張していたとのこと。

ユニットバス、シンナーなどで供給懸念…ナフサ不足の真相と1993年備蓄義務撤廃の誤算 https://t.co/cFeO84rhMC

[Reuters @Reuters]

Japan sees weakening economic momentum, early signs of war-induced pain https://t.co/CoYRNk6tno https://t.co/CoYRNk6tno

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

BREAKING: While Trump posted “48 hours before all Hell will reign down,” the European leader closest to him was in Doha telling Italian national television: “This time, we do not agree.” Giorgia Meloni became the first EU, NATO, G7, and G20 leader to set foot in the Gulf since the war began on February 28. She flew into countries under active bombardment to negotiate gas contracts. The UAE engaged 23 ballistic missiles and 56 Iranian drones on the same day she was scheduled to arrive there. She came anyway. She came for gas.

Italy gets 10 percent of its total gas consumption from Qatari LNG. Qatar’s Ras Laffan export facility was hit by Iranian missiles, losing 17 percent of its capacity. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on Italian cargoes, cancelling five shipments. Meloni sat in Lusail Palace with the Amir and pledged that Italy would contribute to restoring Qatari energy infrastructure damaged by Iranian bombing. She reaffirmed the necessity of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. She did not offer a single warplane to help reopen it. Italy denied the US use of Sigonella airbase for offensive operations. Meloni’s government called the strikes a “dangerous trend outside international law.” And then she flew to the Gulf to negotiate the supply of the molecule that cannot flow because the strait she will not help open remains closed.

The Bank of Italy lowered GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing the war. Italy breached the EU’s deficit ceiling last year. Italian families are paying for a war Italy refused to join, in fuel prices set by a strait Italy will not help reopen, for gas produced by allies Italy supports diplomatically but not militarily.

Meloni told RAI: “I continue to believe that, geopolitically, Europe has little to gain from a divergence with the United States, but our duty is, first and foremost, to defend our national interests, and when we disagree, we must say so.” That sentence was delivered from the Gulf, to Italian cameras, about an American war, by the leader Trump once called “fantastic” and treated as his closest European ally. The friendship is not over. But the sentence “this time, we do not agree” is the most significant public break between a European leader and the American president since the war began. It came not from Macron, who blocked the UN resolution. Not from Starmer, who is hosting the Hormuz summit from London. It came from Meloni, the one Trump expected to stand with him.

The day before Meloni arrived in Doha, eight Iranians were killed when the B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj was struck. They had gathered underneath the unfinished structure to celebrate Sizdah Bedar, the Iranian holiday known as Nature Day. They were picnicking. The bridge collapsed on them. Over 3,000 people have died across the Middle East since February 28. The strait is closed. The gas is trapped. The ally who was supposed to help is negotiating contracts instead. And the leader who promised all Hell is posting countdowns while his closest European friend tells the camera, on the record, in the Gulf, that she disagrees.

The alliance did not fracture over ideology. It fractured over a molecule that cannot pass through a 34-kilometre strait. Meloni needs the gas. She will not fight for the strait. And the distance between those two positions is the distance between a partnership and a transaction.

https://t.co/dAOBBMsgDS

[日本経済新聞 電子版（日経電子版） @nikkei]

JERA、米国からのLNG調達契約が一部破棄　30年から年間100万トン
https://t.co/gc5D9Y7w2V

[nageune31 @nageune31]

🟠韓国政府「代替原油を5000万バレル確保したよ。これで今月はだいたい回るだろう。5月以降の分も引き続き鋭意交渉中」

△私がイ・ジェミョンは超有能だと言った通り。サウジアラビア、オマーン、アメリカ、カザフスタンなどからさっそくかき集めてきた。アルジェリア、ギリシャなども…

…検討中らしい。注目すべきは、たぶん韓国政府だけが実施している「備蓄油スワップ」方式だ。中東より遠方から運ぶので倍近い日数がかかるが、タンカーが到着するまでは運転用として政府が国の備蓄分の原油を民間の石油会社に貸し与える。タンカーが到着しだい、会社は���の備蓄コンビナートに補充して返すわけだ。

5,000万バレルは韓国の月平均消費量の約8,000万バレルの6割水準だが、国内エネルギー需要の厳格管理や工場稼働���低下などを考慮すると、なんとか需給管理が可能だとのこと。もちろん石油価格が多少割高になってしまうのは仕方がない。原油が全く入って来なくなることに比べれば。

韓国は原油精製大国なので、余裕を持って国内に入れて石油製品として輸出してあげないと困る国がたくさん出てくる。

世界各国から搬入するにはタンカーが大量に必要だが、世界で運航中の超大型原油運搬船（VLCC）は約800～900隻で、そのうち韓国資本が運営する超大型タンカーは約140隻以上と世界最高水準だ。なんとか回していけるだろう。

とにかくホルムズが封鎖されたままでも、政府備蓄分には実質的に手を付けず、民間分を回転させていく目途がつきそうだ。いざとなれば外交力を発揮してロシアとイランから買い付けるだろうし。

https://t.co/XIQEZatIb9

[大場紀章(エネルギーアナリスト) @nuribaon]

妻に「ウクライナの時はあんなに怖かったのに、今回の中東は全然伝わってこない」と言われた。日本の海外報道は基本的に西側メディアの翻訳だ。ウクライナでは西側が「被害者を守る側」だったから、感情に訴える物語が大量に作られ、それが翻訳されて流れてきた。今回攻撃しているのは米国とイスラエルだ。西側メディアが被害者の物語を作る構造にない。

しかし日本にとってはホルムズ危機の方が遥かに深刻だ。石油の中東依存度95.9%。LNGは極低温液体で物理的に大量備蓄ができず、国内在庫はわずか2〜3週間分。石油には254日分の備蓄があるが、これは「安全」ではなく「猶予」でしかない。伝わりやすい戦争と伝わりにくい戦争。日本の生活に直結するのは後者。

[大場紀章(エネルギーアナリスト) @nuribaon]

（翻訳）
ホルムズ海峡の影響で、肥料市場、ひいては農業市場が大きく影響を受けています。

肥料成分のグローバルな流れのシェア：
硫黄の約44%
尿素の約31%
アンモニアの約18%
リン酸塩の約15%

今後、主要な商品および農業ショックが控えています。

[大場紀章(エネルギーアナリスト) @nuribaon]

ホルムズ海峡封鎖によって、日本は石油輸入の75%を失います。一方、米国のホルムズ依存度は消費のわずか2%に過ぎません。

IEAは1974年、アラブ石油禁輸を契機に米国のキッシンジャー国務長官（当時）主導で設立されました。その根拠法であるIEP協定では、加盟国の石油供給が7%以上減少した場合、備蓄放出と加盟国間の石油配分を発動する義務が定められています。仕組みは明快で、供給喪失の少ない国が多い国に融通するものです。ホルムズ封鎖の場合、米国が最大の供出義務国となります。米国のIEA協調放出における拠出義務は43.9%です。

合理的なシナリオとしては、封鎖初期にIEA全体で日量300万バレルを協調放出し、米国が150万b/d、欧州加��国が残りを分担する形が考えられます。2022年のウクライナ危機時にも計1億2,000万バレル（日量100万バレル超×6ヶ月）の協調放出が実現しており、米国だけでなく欧州にも応分の負担を求めることには前例があります。優先供給先は、最も打撃を受ける日本と韓国とすべきです。なお台湾はIEA非加盟のため、この枠組みの対象外ですが、台湾への供給確保は、米国の二国間責任として別途要求すべき問題でしょう。

そして重要な点は、この危機が米国の軍事行動に起因するという事実です。国連国際法委員会の「国家責任条文」（2001年）は、国家の行為によって生じた損害に対する賠償義務を国際法の一般原則として定めています。自らが設計した危機対応制度を、自らが起こした危機において発動しないのであれば、制度の正当性は根底から崩壊します。

今後危機が長期化する事を考え、日本が検討すべきは、自国の備蓄開放だけではなく���IEP協定��緊急配分発動を交渉カードとしつつ、ホルムズ被害国への傾斜配分付きの協調放出を実現させることです。最低交渉ラインは「日本向け日量100万バレル×90日間」の確約。
米国が作った制度で、米国が起こした危機を、米国が救済する。それはむしろ当然の義務ではないでしょうか。

それでもLNGについてはどうしようもありません。

[Cyrus Janssen @thecyrusjanssen]

An Iranian man left this comment on my YouTube channel. This is without a doubt the single best explanation of the reality facing Iranian people today👇

"As an Iranian, I can tell you the situation is no longer just political—it's existential. We are trapped between two collapsing structures: one internal, one external. On one hand, we face a deeply dysfunctional government, led by the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Republic’s unelected institutions.

Decades of economic mismanagement, suppression of dissent, and brutal ideological control have alienated multiple generations. No one believes in reform anymore—because every attempt has either been co-opted or crushed. But here's the paradox: We are also terrified of regime collapse—because we've watched the aftermath of Western intervention in countries like Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan. Each was promised freedom; each descended into chaos, civil war, or foreign occupation.

So no, we don't trust the U.S. or Israel. Not because we support our regime—but because we know how imperial powers treat ‘liberated’ nations in the Middle East.

Freedom, in their language, often means vacuum, fire, and permanent instability. Right now, many Iranians live with three truths at once: The Islamic Republic is morally and politically bankrupt. The alternatives offered by foreign actors are not liberation—they’re collapse.

A bad government is survivable. No government is not. We are not silent because we agree. We are cautious because we’ve learned—too well—what happens when superpowers decide to "help." In a sentence: Iran is a nation held hostage by its own regime, but haunted by the fate of its neighbors. We are stuck in a house we hate, surrounded by fires we fear more."

[高橋 杉雄/Sugio @SugioNIDS]

なんですと！！

[Archaeology & Art @archaeologyart]

Asian Black Bear Cub in the Snow. Culture: Edo Period, Japan, 1799. Medium: Ink and color on silk. Collection: Ashmolean Museum, Oxford.

This is the Tsukinowaguma, the moon-ringed Asian black bear, native to Japan's mountainous forests. During the Edo period, a community in northern Japan's Tohoku region shared these deep, snow-covered beech forests with the bears and hunted them: the traditional winter hunters known as the Matagi. The Asian black bear was essential to the Matagi communities, who depended on the forest during the long, freezing winter months when farming completely stopped and roads were blocked by snow. Bear meat was a vital protein source for them, while the thick black pelt offered protection against the bitter cold. Also, a traditional medicine called kuma no i (熊の胆), derived from the bear's gallbladder, was extremely valuable in Asian medicine at the time.
For the Matagi, bear hunting wasn't just a sport or a commercial enterprise. They saw the bears as sacred messengers of Yama-no-kami, the goddess who ruled the mountains, and as a divine gift she offered to help humans survive.

Taking a life they deemed sacred was a complex religious process with extremely strict rules in Matagi culture. Before stepping into the snowy forest, the hunters would burn a fragrant fir branch called morobi, using its smoke to cleanse their clothes and bodies of any human-world scents. To avoid polluting the sacred mountain environment and angering the goddess, they'd completely stop speaking everyday Japanese. Instead, they used a secret mountain language they called Yama-kotoba. In this language, instead of saying words like "blood" or "death," they used specific substitutes. They wouldn't even let the word kuma -- the standard Japanese word for bear -- cross their lips. To avoid startling the prey and to show respect, they called it itazu.

When they successfully hunted a bear, there wasn't any individual celebration or personal boasting. Instead, they'd hold a special ritual called Kebokai on the deep snow to safely send the animal's spirit back to its divine ancestors. They'd lay the bear on its back, turn its head toward a specific compass direction, and recite ancient prayers. They treated the animal's body with the utmost respect, making sure no part of it went to waste. A small portion of the internal organs, like the heart and lungs, was offered as a tribute to the mountain goddess to express their gratitude. At the end of the hunt, the harvested meat and all proceeds were distributed equally among all the hunters, regardless of who struck the fatal blow.

[シラカワスキー @shirakawa_love]

就職氷河期世代の実像と求められる対策
https://t.co/uJjiuvu9wU

[COCOA大学 @COCOA83421111]

東京大学の研究により、犬が「うれしい」と感じたときの表情パターンが科学的に分析されました。
その結果、
・オス・メス共通の喜び顔：4種類
口を開ける、あごを下げる、舌を出す、耳を内側に寄せる など
・オス犬だけに見られる喜び顔：追加で4種類
鼻にしわを寄せる、唇や鼻をなめる など

[Yahoo!ニュース @YahooNewsTopics]

【国保逃れ 個人事業主らに普及か】
https://t.co/Urdh8Hk2lH

[ジブリのせかい【非公式ファンサイト】 @ghibli_world]

◎44年前の本日 1982年1月23日に高畑勲監督の『セロ弾きのゴーシュ』が公開されました。

オープロダクションによって、5年の歳月をかけて完成させた自主制作作品。原画を才田俊次さん、美術を椋尾篁さんがほぼ一人で担当するという、少数精鋭で制作された作品です。

[Tetsuo Kotani/小谷哲男 @tetsuo_kotani]

有料記事がプレゼントされました！��1月23日 05:43まで全文お読みいただけます
世界を揺るがすトランプ氏の「ドンロー主義」　日本外交への影響は：朝日新聞 https://t.co/85YGra3MFr

[夏葉社 @natsuhasha]

リアルタイムで「映像の世紀」を見ているような毎日だ。

[Maria Shriver @mariashriver]

I return to this space today to pay tribute to my sweet, beloved Tatiana, who left this earth today. I return to this space to pay tribute and honor her loving and supportive family, who came together and did everything they possibly could do to help her. I return to this space heartbroken because Tatiana loved life. She loved her life, and she fought like hell to try to save it.

I cannot make sense of this. I cannot make any sense of it at all. None. Zero.

Tatiana was a great journalist, and she used her words to educate others about the earth and how to save it. She created a beautiful life with her extraordinary husband George, and children Eddie and Josie. She fought like a warrior. She was valiant, strong, courageous.

My heart has always been with my cousin Caroline ever since we were little kids. My entire being is with her now. What a rock she has been. What a source of love she has been with Ed, Rose, Rory, Jack, George, Eddie, Josie, and all of Tatiana’s cousins and friends and the amazing doctors who tried so hard.

A few weeks ago, Tatiana wrote so beautifully about her diagnosis and her battle with this horrendous disease. If you haven’t read her words, please honor her by doing so (the article is linked below). Her piece is extraordinary. Whatever your faith, please pray for Tatiana and her grieving family. Tatiana was the light, the humor, the joy. She was smart, wicked smart, as they say, and sassy. She was fun, funny loving, caring, a perfect daughter, sister, mother, cousin, niece, friend, all of it…

Those of us left behind will make sure Eddie and Josie know what a beautiful, courageous spirit their mother was and will always be. She takes after her extraordinary mother, Caroline. May we all hold Tatiana’s family in our collective embrace not just today, but in the days ahead, and may each of you who read this know how lucky you are to be alive right now. Please pause and honor your life. It truly is such a gift. ♥️