Will

•Options 📉
•Futures 📈
•Protection 🥷🏾
•Tennessee Vols 🍊🏈

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@THENICKY_MARINO Good lord

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@zerohedge Services growth under 10% for the first time in 3 years is the number that matters, that's the high margin engine. Notable that buybacks dropped while cash piled up too. Curious where IV settles after tomorrow's open.

[Will @WillBrimfield]

They threw a flag on every touchdown. MacIntyre said it, we all saw it. Lose by 3 with 21 points wiped off the board. That one's gonna sting all week. 🍊

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@SawyerMerritt 420 registered, couldn't script that number better lol. Real question is how many are carrying paying riders vs sitting in a lot.

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@unusual_whales Funny timing. AI token spending grew just 0.2% MoM in September, while Amazon is still talking $220B in spend this year. Somebody's math is off, and next week's earnings tell us whose 🤷🏾‍♂️

[Will @WillBrimfield]

My Vols are 6-1 and ranked 11th in the country 2.5-point dogs in Columbia? Fine by me. Played in those trenches '07-'11, and road games get won up front. Run the ball, win the sack battle, fly home 7-1. GoVols 🍊🏈 #GBO

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@ripster47 Planning the scenarios the night before is the part most skip. Journaling helps me catch when I'm trading a setup I never planned. Where's your cut-off when the flush doesn't reclaim?

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@JaiJaiApe Down 9% in 5 sessions with capex fear everywhere. If the 2027 guide lands closer to street than BofA's number, a relief pop feels possible. Guide above $205B and look out below.

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@itskevintr Great map. ES ran hard after the bell and gave a chunk back overnight, so 7725 feels like the line. Do you trust a gap above it today or wait for a hold with TSLA/META on deck?

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@DudeWhoInvests Bounce got sold. Beat on EPS, but the guide did the talking and it dropped ~5-6% after hours. Good reminder that into earnings the guide matters more than the beat.

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@earnings_guy TSLA, META and IBM all after the bell tonight. Do you track how often each one actually beats its implied move? That hit rate tells me more than the number itself.

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@RuFiOooooh @KobeissiLetter That's the wild part. The market will pay up for growth, but only while it's accelerating. NVDA still has the growth to back the multiple. NFLX's growth slowed and the premium went with it.

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@RuFiOooooh @KobeissiLetter Nope. 55x only works if growth stays elite. The moment the guide slips, the market re-rates it fast. Profits are still there, the premium isn't.

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@Vol_Football From the O-line side, noise like that is a nightmare for the other side. Silent counts all game, false starts, and guys start playing tentative.

That's an extra defender for us 🍊🗣️

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@unusual_whales Tariff headlines have been moving futures more than data lately. If a court ever blocks the 50% Canada tariffs, autos, lumber, and anything with a cross-border supply chain should catch a bid. Long road, though.

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@amitisinvesting "Surprised if less than 13GW" is the line that matters, not the 20GW.

Near term for $SPCX, the lockup starting Thursday is the real test. Up to 1.3B shares become eligible. Story vs supply.

[Will @WillBrimfield]

🚨 Musk on the SpaceX call: SpaceX and $TSLA have formed special committees to discuss a MERGER.

$TSLA reports tomorrow after the bell too. Options were already pricey… this just made them pricier.

Merger: genius or dilution trap? 👇🏾

[Will @WillBrimfield]

Tonight's after-hours scoreboard 📊

$NFLX beat on EPS, guided Q4 light → down ~6%, lowest since Aug '24
$SMCI raised Q1 rev to $18.5-19.5B vs ~$15B est → up ~11%
$SPCX big beat, Elon talking 13-20GW of compute

The guide matters more than the quarter. Which one are you trading tomorrow? 👇🏾

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@charliebilello Record margins + slowest growth since '23 is exactly the setup where guidance matters more than the print. Q4 EPS guide of $0.67 vs ~$0.73 expected is what the stock traded on tonight.

[Will @WillBrimfield]

@unusual_whales Oil isn't buying the "flows are back to normal" story yet. Brent still ~$109 and API just showed a ~4.9M bbl crude draw.

Until tankers stop getting hit, the risk premium stays in the price.