William Fontaine 🇨🇦

-Construction entrepreneur|Forex trader
-No financial advice|Educational only

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

@_tmm71 Posted mister

The
Money
Milker

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

🧠 THE BIAS LAB — WEEKLY PLAYBOOK

Macro • Positioning • Execution

🌍 ENVIRONMENT

⚔️ Geopolitics driving volatility
🛢️ Oil elevated → inflation risk persists
📈 Yields high → no easy money
📊 Positioning squeeze (CTAs buying, shorts covering)

👉 Market = Short-term strength / Medium-term fragile
⚡ MARKET STATE
Equities: Relief rally (flows-driven, not fundamentals)
Volatility: Falling → fuels upside (short-term)
Rates: Still elevated → caps upside
Oil: Key macro trigger
🧭 GAME PLAN

🟢 Early Week (Mon–Tue)

Risk-on continuation

Do NOT fight the squeeze

🔴 Mid–Late Week (Wed–Fri)
Flow exhaustion
Macro re-prices
Look to execute

🎯 TOP PLAYS

🥇 AUD/JPY — SHORT

Fade strength

Carry unwind setup
Best asymmetric trade

🥈 USD/CAD — LONG

Buy dips
Oil + USD strength combo
🥉 EUR/USD — SHORT

Sell rallies

Weak Europe + strong USD

📉 EQUITIES

🎯 Short the rip (not the bottom)
Watch for:
Failed breakouts

Weak volume rallies

Rejections at supply
👉 This is a squeeze, not a new bull trend

🟡 GOLD

🎯 Buy dips
Inflation not dead

Geopolitics supportive

Volatility expected

🛢️ OIL

🎯 Key trigger

If oil ↑ → pressure on equities
If oil ↓ → squeeze extends
⚠️ AVOID

❌ Chasing equities
❌ Shorting panic lows
❌ Random FX trades

🧠 POSITIONING SUMMARY

Equities → Short (mid-week)

AUD/JPY → Short

USD/CAD → Long
EUR/USD → Short
Gold → Buy dips

🔥 EDGE SUMMARY

Market is being pushed higher, not supported higher.

CTAs buying

Vol collapsing
Shorts covering

👉 Fuel ≠ foundation

🧭 PLAN

Let squeeze play out
Enter mid-week
Fade strength

⚠️ RISK

If:

Vol keeps collapsing
Oil drops
👉 Squeeze extends further
🧠 FINAL THOUGHT
The edge this week is patience, not prediction.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE, EDUCATION PURPOSES ONLY

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

🟥 MARKET UPDATE — SHIFT IN CONDITIONS

-Environment:
From squeeze → to macro friction

🌍 Macro

-Hormuz tensions unresolved
War premium creeping back
Oil risk not gone
➡️ Macro risk re-entering the system

📊 Equities

-Sensitive to oil + headlines
Rally losing strength
➡️ More downside risk short-term

🛢️ Oil

-Structurally unstable
Physical vs futures still disconnected
➡️ Key driver of next move

🧠 Playbook
Don’t chase crypto here
Respect macro risk
Stay patient

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

WEEKLY BIAS

Current environment:

Fragile risk-on, driven by geopolitics.
Oil elevated → inflation risk still alive.
Fed stuck → no clean pivot.
Positioning crowded → market vulnerable.

Scenarios for the week:

1. War drags on (base case)
→ Oil stays high
→ Inflation pressure builds
→ Risk rallies fade

2. Real de-escalation
→ Oil drops
→ Relief rally in equities
→ Risk assets squeeze higher

3. Fake relief (most dangerous)
→ Headlines improve
→ Market rallies
→ Oil stays elevated
→ Inflation bites again → reversal

This is not a trend market.

It’s a regime shift environment.
Trade the scenario, not your bias.

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

@PeterLBrandt
@Rebecca98869736
Spot on — that EUR/CHF liquidity bounce looks like the 2022 playbook kicking in. Oil supply constraints are the real drag, but as a trader I’m watching Canadian energy, materials & critical minerals on the TSX as strong redeployment candidates once the US leg bottoms. Peter, what categories are you leaning toward for your sideline cash? Energy, metals, AI infra?

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

We’re transitioning from a low-vol regime to expansion.

Most traders are still thinking in ranges.
The market isn’t.
Here’s what I’m seeing:

• MOVE index breaking out → bond market stress
• VIX trending higher → equity instability
• Yields rising → no room for easy policy

At the same time:
• USD positioning improving
• JPY at extreme levels (squeeze potential)
• Risk assets still relatively complacent
That combination doesn’t last.

My current bias:

→ Short AUDJPY (risk-off + JPY unwind)
→ Long USD (macro + flows)
→ Sell strength in equities
This is how regime shifts start:
quietly… then all at once.

For educational purposes only.
This reflects my personal interpretation of market positioning.

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

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[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

This market is a trap.

War → oil up → inflation NOT going away
Yields ripping → rate cuts getting erased (hikes back on the table?)
Yet:

Equities can’t break higher

VIX elevated
Everyone still positioned for risk-on
👉 Something doesn’t add up.

This is how markets break.

I’m not chasing anything here.

But one setup stands out:

AUDJPY

The most crowded carry trade on the board.

Borrow yen (cheap)

Buy AUD (risk)
Works… until it doesn’t
If:

Yields keep pushing higher

Risk starts rolling over
This uptrend breaks
👉 This doesn’t drift lower… it unwinds.

FAST.

Not calling the top.
Not forcing a trade.

Just watching the pressure build.
When it snaps, you don’t want to be late.

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

Global markets are entering a very different macro regime.

Energy shocks.
Geopolitical risk.
Rising volatility.
In environments like this, capital often rotates toward commodity economies.
My current bias:

Focusing on Canada & Brazil
(energy, infrastructure, commodities)

Watching / holding:
$CNQ
$WSP
$NXE (nuclear theme)
$CCO

But I’m staying defensive:
• ~30–40% cash
• slowly buying dips
• closely monitoring oil, credit spreads, and volatility

For now I’m underweight Europe & Japan, which tend to struggle when energy prices spike.
Not trying to predict the market.
Just positioning around the macro trends in front of us.
Disclaimer: personal analysis, not financial advice.

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

1️⃣ GLOBAL LIQUIDITY

What it tells you:

Liquidity Direction | Market Impact
Rising | Risk assets supported
Falling | Risk-off pressure

Current signal:
Slightly improving

Meaning:
Markets can still bounce.

2️⃣ CREDIT STRESS

Spread | Meaning
2–3% | Risk-on
3–4% | Neutral
4–6% | Stress
7%+ | Crisis

Current signal:
~3%

Markets fragile but not broken.

3️⃣ GLOBAL GROWTH

Chart: Global Manufacturing PMI

Important threshold: 50

PMI | Meaning
Above 50 | Expansion
Below 50 | Contraction

Current signal:
~51

Slow growth.

4️⃣ ENERGY SHOCK

Chart: Crude Oil (WTI or Brent)

Why oil matters:
Energy shocks drive inflation, bond yields, and currency moves.

Important zones:

Price | Meaning
$70–80 | Neutral
$85–100 | Inflation risk
$100+ | Macro shock

Current signal:
~$90

Inflation pressure rising.

5️⃣ VOLATILITY

Chart: VIX

Interpretation:

VIX | Regime
10–15 | Calm
15–20 | Normal
20–30 | Unstable
30+ | Panic

Current signal:
~29

Risk instability.

6️⃣ BOND MARKET

Chart: US 10Y Yield

Why it matters:
Rates drive equity valuations, currency flows, and macro expectations.

Interpretation:

Direction | Meaning
Falling | Growth fears
Rising | Inflation fears

Current signal:
Rising

Inflation shock.

7️⃣ POSITIONING

Chart: COT positioning (major assets)
Look for extremes.

Example signals:
- Funds extremely long commodities
- Funds extremely short bonds
- Funds short equities

This shows where positioning squeezes can occur.

Current signal:
- Funds short bonds
- Funds long oil
- Commodities crowded

YOUR CURRENT REGIME

Indicator | Signal
Liquidity | improving
Credit | stable
Growth | slow expansion
Oil | shock higher
Volatility | rising
Yields | rising
Positioning | commodities crowded

This equals:
GEOPOLITICAL INFLATION REGIME

Meaning:
- Commodities supported
- Volatility rising
- USD strong
- JPY strong
- Equities unstable

TRADES THAT WORK BEST IN THIS REGIME

Historically:

Strong currencies: USD, JPY
Weak currencies: AUD, NZD

This content reflects personal market analysis and macro research and is shared for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to trade any asset. Financial markets involve significant risk, and all decisions remain the sole responsibility of the individual.

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

NatGas looks juicy over the upcoming weeks, wait for clear confirmation but this one is gonna be fun to play!!!

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

Bias ≠ entry. Bias indicates the preferred direction, but you still need a trigger (break + hold).

[Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA @MichaelNaussCMT]

Don't believe everything you read about Michael Burry's shorts. Media claims of 80% short positions are misleading. He's actually net LONG, with shorts making up only 2% of his capital. Fact-check everything!

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

Sunday report:
Gold remains strong despite the dollar's rebound last week; I'll explore momentum trades. A dollar retracement seems likely, so I'll wait and act accordingly. CAD is my top short, followed by EUR and NZD. If the dollar weakens, I'll consider GBP or S&P 500. Oil looks promising; I'll seek upside opportunities.

Short and sweet, risk management baby lets go!

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

@unusual_whales Unprofessional. Regardless of your opinion, everyone deserves a voice, and you silenced his. You are part of the problem.

[Lex Fridman @lexfridman]

The assassination of Charlie Kirk is truly disturbing. I'm in shock. There should be no place for political violence in this country. This is not what America is about. We are better than this. Rest in Peace Charlie 🙏

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

New week, new opportunities. Last week's data confirms a rate cut is coming (already priced in). Next, we need to know if cuts will continue, but Powell may stay cautious. COT data is tricky in this environment, yet we'll make the best of it. The market is turning cautious, and September's seasonality is weak, so keep that in mind.

Market positioning doesn’t predict direction:

USD: Bullish data, but heavy news flow with Trump pushing for lower rates and Fed involvement. A range is forming on the daily; wait for breakout and confirmation for long-term trades.

EUR: Many shorts are ready, but the uptrend persists with strong open interest. A breakdown with confirmation would be a top setup.

AUD: Long breakout expected soon, possibly sooner than anticipated, favoring upside.

CAD: A favorite due to a steady downtrend building.

JPY: Volatile yen with Ishiba leaving and a bearish tone; expect more downside, aligning with data.

CHF: No clear side; play as a safe haven if desired, but not compelling.

GBP: Data favors downside; longs are building but lack consistency or slowing open interest.

NZD: Short bias with low volume; we'll see.

Gold: Institutions are buying, a good sign. No correlation with the dollar, so gold could rise as a safe haven even if DXY climbs.

Oil: Reached a key level; may revert soon despite data. Always wait for confirmation.

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

Good movement on the markets, in line with what we wanted to see, if you were long oil, long usd congratulations!! Expect some consolidation before next leg up!

[William Fontaine 🇨🇦 @WillFontt]

@veggie_eric Learned for 50days pretty religiously, it was okay but as soon as they talked normally I lost them, it is much better to learn with situations and conversations imo