wvivar

[Daron Acemoglu @DAcemogluMIT]

Third question on AI.

A question that also remains unasked is whether the AI boom can continue without leading to a massive increase in inequality.

A recent paper by Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh runs the numbers on how much revenue the AI industry needs to generate to recover its massive investment (summary and a link to the paper can be found here: https://t.co/QIGcoObcVc).

Van Nieuwerburgh’s arithmetic should make us more concerned. AI investments will average about 3.6% of GDP annually between 2025 and 2032. Van Nieuwerburgh calculates that, using a 10% rate of return, the industry would need to generate annual revenues of about $3.7 trillion by 2032 to recover these costs (growing from its current levels of about $200 billion or so). That is significantly more than 10% of current US national income, and will likely remain around 10% of national income by 2032, even if GDP growth rose from its current level.

A large fraction of this revenue will go to capital income. That means a massive increase in the share of capital in national income, which has already risen substantially over the last 25 years or so – now standing at an all-time high of about 47% (https://t.co/IuYldl173r).

Capital income is much more unequally distributed than labor income, so a massive increase in the capital share of national income will translate into a very sizable surge in inequality.

The rise in inequality may not stop with the capital share. My work with Pascual Restrepo documents that (automation-driven) increases in the capital share of national income are typically associated with rising labor income inequality as well (see, for example, https://t.co/2D9KUL3QfM). The same may happen in the next several years, boosting inequality further.

What is missing from our current debate is any discussion of a fundamental dilemma these numbers pose: can the AI boom avoid both an economically costly crash and a huge increase in inequality?
If the industry reaches these revenues, inequality surges. If the industry does not become profitable, a crash, with substantial costs in terms of lost output and jobs, becomes likely.

My assessment would be that the industry is unlikely to reach levels of revenue Van Nieuwerburgh calculates. First, diffusion has been and will likely continue to be slow. Second, competition from open-weight models, which are getting better, will limit how much proprietary models can charge. Third, despite important advances, I still believe that AI models will not be able to automate entire occupations anytime soon, thus limiting their value to businesses as cost-saving devices.

Whether this leads to a crash or not is more complicated and will depend on whether various AI companies are bailed out and what kind of support they receive.

Nevertheless, even if revenues fall short of these gargantuan amounts and we avoid a dramatic surge in inequality, I expect that the diffusion of AI will push up inequality between capital and labor and within labor.

If inequality does surge, a further question becomes central: can our democracy survive such astronomical levels of inequality?

[Chumel Torres @ChumelTorres]

Este momento 😮‍💨

[Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @rshereme]

A sobering message from a history teacher:

I’ve spent years teaching American and international government — from strong democracies like the UK to authoritarian regimes like russia and China.

But lately, the most alarming lesson comes from home.

1/n

[Ayuden a Mis Hijos @AyudenAMisHijos]

3
💔 Mi hijo cumple 3 años… y no sé dónde está.

📅 Mañana, 15 de marzo, mi hijo menor, mi bebé, cumple 3 años.
Tres años desde que lo traje al mundo, desde que iluminó mi vida con su sonrisa contagiosa… hasta que su padre nos separó, y esa sonrisa se apagó.

😢 Hoy no sé dónde duerme mi hijo. No sé si podrá celebrar su cumpleaños conmigo, con quien siempre estuvo, con quien durmió cada noche hasta que su padre, Fernando Menéndez Zeppilli, nos arrebató ese derecho.

🔴 Fernando, deja que nuestro hijo celebre su cumpleaños con su madre.
Con la madre que lo trajo al mundo. Con la madre que lo ama y lo hace sonreír.

📢 ¡Cumple con la ley! ¡Basta de excusas!
Nuestros hijos deben estar con su madre. 🚨

#JusticiaParaAna #DóndeEstánMisHijos

[Caro Díaz 🍉 (masquebipolar) @Carohache13]

Luis Fernando Domínguez, del Ministerio de Justicia, diciendo en la ONU que el Estado peruano es respetuoso de los derechos humanos frente a Donata Carvajal: adulta mayor puneña que fue torturada por la PNP durante las protestas del APEC.

[Juan Pablo Morris @JuanPabloMorris]

¿Qué tal este comercial ? Los dueños de #CervezaCorona dando ejemplo le responden a #Trump y a todos los que nos quieren dividir…#VivaAmericaUnida

[Rosa María Palacios @rmapalacios]

Un himno a estos días

[wvivar @Will_Vivar]

@un_visitante @fanaticospe Que lindo… los esperamos en varias finales este siglo y no llegaban. Ganamos y perdimos pero
Uds no llegaban y ahora por fin este miércoles los esperamos

[wvivar @Will_Vivar]

@un_visitante @fanaticospe El 87 le ganaron a un equipo que estaba en duelo y reconstruyendose. Gran hazaña. Fijense lo que hizo el
Atlètico Nacional

[Josh Wolfe @wolfejosh]

SO GOOD!
Have not laughed this hard in a while😂🇺🇸👇

[Tanglius @TangliusIO]

Tanglius will be speaking at #CardanoSummit2023 South Florida on November 4th. It is time to show to the community what we've been up to. The next-gen of decentralized content management-creation protocols are coming to Cardano 🤗 @DApp360_Mike @Cardano_CF

[Dr. Genevieve Guenther (she/they) 🪬 @DoctorVive]

Today @WilliamJRipple et al released the 2023 report on the terrifying state of our #climate.

It should be read by every policymaker, decisionmaker, and journalist on the planet.

Here is a thread of some key takeaways.

1/n

[Rachel Théodore @rachel_theodore]

Más joven, me dediqué a estudiar Medio Oriente, ya que crecí en Túnez. Hice mi Master sobre la Guerra de Irak. Trabajé en el Ministerio de RREE de Francia, sobre el Conflicto Israeli-Palestino. Abro hilo de pq NO se puede tomar partido en este conflicto 🧵👇
(insultos=block)

[George Takei @GeorgeTakei]

The Israeli government has cut off food, water, and fuel to 2 million people inside Gaza. Collective punishment is not only contrary to international law, it is inhumane and illogical. How will this deescalate the violence rather than radicalize many more? It is madness.

[ Marco Sifuentes 🐶 @ocram]

un poquito del segmento censurado por YouTube sobre @RosselliAmuruz

el resto, aquí
👇
https://t.co/oUOYw0txMq
👆

[Mark Hamill @MarkHamill]

This will only be effective if EVERYONE refrains from tweeting (X-ing?) on August 1st a/k/a #TweetlessTuesday. Let's show the owner the POWER OF THE PEOPLE. Honestly, would it kill you to keep your thoughts to yourself for 1 damn day? Read a book! 👀 #August1stTweetOutDay

[Alain Mizrahi @alainmizrahi]

1/ Lo que está ocurriendo en Francia me está afectando mucho, no solo porque es mi segunda patria sino porque es un condensado de varios de los mayores problemas que sufre el mundo occidental y que difícilmente tengan solución en el mediano plazo. (abro 🧵 laaaargo).👇

[Jogo Bonito @ufcfooty]

Is there anything more satisfying than a perfectly created football advert?

Here are some of my favourites 👇

[David J. Bier @David_J_Bier]

Legal immigration is *impossible* for nearly all immigrants wishing to immigrate to the U.S. legally.

You can’t just “get in line.” That’s a fiction perpetuated by those who want to keep immigration illegal.

My latest report explains why. Here’s the summary in 1 pic... 🧵