We post an optimal, no discount lineup for @NBATopShot Historic Fast Break based on data from backtesting.
No moments needed, but RP discounts are given based on moments owned.
Yesterday's lineup placed 67th.
Fast Break Historic, Run 1 Day 3. Two games, 20 legends, and the optimal no-discount lineup spends all 350 Roster Points: Nance, Payton, English, Camby, Kemp, projected 214. Yesterday's all-bigs lineup projected 237 and scored 238, 67th of 1,249.
@SkillGameNBA@chrisschlei@NBATopShot 1,000%, especially with the 1,000+ participants. Better pool could bump that up, especially if the prize pool is better.
@chrisschlei@NBATopShot I built a dashboard that backtested historical simulations. Free article with my top no discount lineup; the rest is behind a pay wall (full disclosure). Let me if you're interested in a complimentary week to test it out.
Placed 2nd on Day 1, 6th on Day 2. #1 overall (for now).
I can’t believe I’m saying this.
I like @nbatopshot. I mean I really like it.
Working on this weekend’s updated Digital Collectibles Prospectus has helped clarify why—and why most of my Candy collecting is moving to Top Shot and Panini.
Top Shot’s collector engagement is outstanding. Whether that’s new or I’m finally paying attention, I’m excited to log in every day.
Fast Break gives me a reason to use my collection. Building my Raptors collection gives me something meaningful to chase.
Mostly, I’m mad I didn’t collect more.
Smaller rookie mint sizes are encouraging. I’d like to see that discipline extend to base supply. Get debut pack pricing right, and I think there’s an opportunity to bring collectors back.
The marketplace data is encouraging, too.
Active buyer wallets are declining, and that matters. But spending has held up, repeat buying was strong in my research, and the marketplace isn’t relying solely on a handful of big spenders.
And the good Moments I want don’t seem to be getting dumped at giveaway prices.
Someone sell me a Kawhi Game 7, please.
Which brings me to Candy.
I still love their collectibles, and I appreciate the effort CEO Tad Smith is putting into the company. I want Candy to succeed.
But it’s getting harder to plan future collecting there.
Declining interest in Gold and All-Star was already concerning. Returning to collecting strategies that struggled in previous years hasn’t given me much confidence that things will change.
The security breach raised bigger questions for me. Candy has outlined how it plans to protect collectibles going forward, but I’m still working out what that means for my confidence in collecting there—and how much control I actually have over the collectibles I’ve purchased.
Those questions matter more to my future collecting decisions than the technical fixes alone.
I can love the product and still struggle to commit more money to it.
And that’s the difference right now.
Top Shot has me planning my next purchase.
Candy has me questioning whether I should make one.
Meanwhile, I’m thinking about my next Fast Break lineup, which pieces of Raptors history belong in my collection, and what that mysterious Monday wheel might mean.
I’m engaged. I’m excited. I want to see what happens next.
That’s a good place to be as a collector.
Don’t worry, @PaniniAmerica. You continue to be great.
Updated Digital Collectibles Prospectus grades on Saturday.
Better, more consistent comms. One of the big, most inconsistent attributes of @NBATopShot in years past.
However, this season is starting strong. Multiple comms. Rookies. Scarcity. Signed athletes. Fast Break. The Wheel.
Cautiously optimistic about this season.
Fast Break Historic, Run 1 Day 2. The optimal no-discount lineup is all bigs: Cousins, Garnett, Gilmore, Sabonis, Smits, 344 of 350 Roster Points, projected 237. Yesterday's free lineup scored 232, good for a tie at 64th.
First full slate, three free cards. Miami −1.5 in the Giannis and LaMelo debut, Dallas +9.5 against a Houston frontcourt it can't match on the glass, Golden State +6.5 in L.A. Side leans only tonight; the total number settles after a few games.
Getting back into Fastbreak on @NBATopShot
At least for the first run or two to see how things go… not looking to make a profit or anything just wanna have some fun with some TS friends
Also a great way to stay engaged in the NBA action
Don’t really care about the prizes or anything so just starting out with commons.. most are around 30 cents although I did pay over $1 for a Wemby common 🐳
I burned so many moments that I’m almost starting at scratch
Off to a good start with a top 10 finish last night and up like $6-$7 already with my winnings!
I’m sure things will get more difficult as the run goes on and I run out of uses on my commons but it’ll be fun to try find ways around that
#nbatopshot #digitalcollectibles #NBAOpeningNight
Great series of reveals today by Top Shot. They really are the only digital sports collectibles I have much belief in at this point. Smart changes going into an important season for them.
This is absolutely awesome. While I wouldn’t advise anyone to buy/collect moments primarily as game pieces, bringing back the wheel and flash challenges does take advantage of a HUGE benefit to digital collecting- immediate, easy proof of ownership. Additionally, I love that these always benefit long-term holders/collectors!
This is the best thing @nbatopshot has created. Finally after years of Jacob not wanting to use it...IT'S BACK... after he left. Love it. @collctn_connctn@SkillGameNBA