𝕏 Sports Betting, Odds, Research

Las Vegas sports betting pro | Contrarian + model NFL handicapper | Circa Millions top 1% | Free edges daily, premium on Winible | 2026 NFL: 14-4

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I had monster betting day, gave my best bets out free, did you follow and make money?

my Super Bowl betting recap:

Seahawks -4.5 ✅
Under 22 1st Half ✅
Under 46 ✅
Kenneth Walker MVP +800 ✅

I gave all these away for free , follow for more winners @WizardOddsShow
#Seahawks #SuperBowl #SuperBowlLX

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SUPER BOWL FREE PLAY

SEAHAWKS -4.5

With Bill Belichick at the helm and Tom Brady behind center, you knew what kind of team the Patriots were fielding each week and you felt pretty confident that they were going to be playing deep into January. With a new regime in charge in Foxborough, the 2025-26 edition of the Patriots has more questions than any Super Bowl-caliber team in recent memory.

A Division Round win over the Texans where New England generated 3.9 yards per play, went 3-of-14 on third down and turned the ball over three times; and 3) A conference championship win over Denver where the Patriots' only touchdown was scored off a fumble at the Broncos' 12-yard-line.

Pro Football Reference maintains a strength of schedule metric that combines the winning percentages of a team's opponents. Not only did the Patriots have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this year, they would have the easiest strength of schedule (by a significant margin) of any Super Bowl-winning team in the last 20 years. New England has advanced to Super Bowl LX with QB Drake Maye going 43-of-77 (55.8-percent) through the air in three playoff games with two interceptions, six fumbles and 15 sacks. Maye has also surprisingly appeared on the Patriots' injury report leading up to the game with both an illness and a shoulder issue. Maye missed one practice and was a limited participant in another. Patriots' head coach Mike Vrabel said that his team has been battling some illnesses in recent weeks. This will be the second Super Bowl at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara after the Broncos beat the Panthers here ten years ago. It was sunny and 76* at kickoff of that game. Early forecasts look promising for central California over the next week and conditions should be favorable on Sunday.

Since 2004, the underdog is 15-7 against the spread in the Super Bowl and the 'dog has covered the number in each of the last five (courtesy betting analyst Evan Abrams). Since 2002, underdogs of 3+ points have gone 13-4 against the spread in the big game. With those trends in mind, we are still comfortable laying the points with Seattle in this matchup.

One of the biggest reasons why we played the Rams against the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game was Seattle's injuries on the offensive line. When we went to print before the NFC Championship Game, offensive tackles Charles Cross and Josh Jones were both nursing injuries and no one outside of Lumen Field really knew how Sam Darnold was feeling after his oblique injury. Cross and Jones were both cleared to return against the Rams and Darnold looked perfectly fine, going 25-of-36 through the air for 346 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

New England, on the other hand, now has some questions to answer. In addition to Maye's injury, edge rusher Harold Landry did not play against the Broncos and linebacker Robert Spillane suffered an ankle injury and did not return. New England has scored an average of 18.0 points per game in the postseason, and keep in mind, some of those scores were directly set up by turnovers created by the defense.

Per NFL researcher Tony Holzman Escareno, that's the fewest points scored by a Super Bowl-bound team since the 1979 Rams. The playing conditions have not been ideal and the Patriots have faced some tough defenses during this playoff run, but things aren't going to get any easier against a Seahawks' defense that was No. 1 in EPA per play allowed, No. 3 in success rate allowed, No. 4 in passing success rate allowed and No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed while playing a much tougher schedule than the one New England faced. The 12th Man gets its revenge for the heartbreaking loss to New England in 2014.

#SuperBowl #SuperBowl2026 #SuperBowlLX

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@Pompsie 👏

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@JFowlerESPN Giants nation

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@DfsRebels @Winible Excited for this one

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🚨 Breaking line movement on college football tonight, Vegas is Wrong!

Public is reading the game wrong, giving us value & a EDGE!

I have Premium Play available $17 @Winible

Betting Thread 🧵
New Mexico State (2-4, 1-1 CUSA) at Sam Houston (1-5, 0-2 CUSA) —
Currents odds are NMSU -3 and total 46.5 @CircaSports

Weather is clear and mild (~70°F at kickoff, light winds, cooling later) — neutral for scoring.

NMSU’s offense ranks better in success rate and is less negative in EPA, driven by a usable run game (James Jones ~599 yards, positive rush EPA relative to peers). SHSU’s offense is near the bottom nationally in EPA and success, with an especially anemic run game (95 ypg, bottom-tier EPA/rush). SHSU’s defense is the relative bright spot, particularly against the pass.
#EatEmUpKats @BearkatsFB

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@heykayadams BTJ can’t go across middle. Alligator arms

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@denstarr4 Always a good time. Gotta grab a hot dog

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@evenmoneysniper 🙌🏽

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@MTheePony

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@PFF_College @UHCougarFB Go Coogs

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@BANKROLLBUILDAR LFG Burries

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@PHNX_SunDevils @BoBrack @Anthony_Totri @crtopham_ @PHNX_Sports I’m going to game. Let’s get a W

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Worth a look :
•GB @ DET over: The total climbed 3 points against heavy under money, which suggests something besides public betting is pushing it.
•KC @ SEA under: The total fell 3 points against over money, and Kansas City may be without its RT and Rice.
•TB @ CAR: CAR -3.5 was set with Daniels as the expected starter. If Mayfield is named the starter Friday, the line could move back through 3.

What is your best NFL bet or angle? 👇

#Gambling𝕏

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NFL Week 7 betting notes thread 🧵

QB news is driving the board. Lamar Jackson missed Wednesday practice, and Baltimore has flipped from about a field-goal favorite to a 1.5-point underdog against Cincinnati at the Action Network consensus, with 88% of the money on the Bengals.

•Davante Adams is out 6 to 10 weeks, and Mike Evans has Achilles tendinitis.

Line movement and splits
•CIN @ BAL: It opened BAL -3.5 / 51.5 and is now CIN -1.5 / 48.5, with 73% of tickets and 88% of money on CIN. Some books were still showing BAL -2.5 or -3.
•NYG @ HOU: The spread went from -5.5 to -10.5. Of the money on the 43.5 total, 85% is on the over.
•DAL @ PHI: It went from PHI -3 to DAL -4.5, and the total from 48.5 to 44.5.
•GB @ DET: The total rose from 50.5 to 53.5 even though 83% of the money is on the under.
•KC @ SEA: The total fell from 45.5 to 42.5 even though 81% of the money is on the over.
•TB @ CAR: The favorite flipped, from TB -1.5 to CAR -3.5.
•DEN @ ARI: The line moved from DEN -7.5 to -4.5 even though most of the money is on Denver.
•IND @ MIN: At BetMGM, the total dropped from 47.5 to 41.5 and the spread went from MIN -3 to -6.5.

these line movements gone too far?

#DaBears #NEPats #skol

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•NE @ CHI (TNF): New England ruled out both starting guards and three CBs, and RT Morgan Moses is questionable.
•DAL @ PHI (MNF): Hurts is reportedly out for the season and Tanner McKee starts. Barkley (hamstring) is uncertain. Yahoo
•KC @ SEA (SNF): Rashee Rice and RT Jaylon Moore didn't practice. KCTV5
•GB @ DET: Brian Branch and Cade Mays are expected to make their season debuts, while Micah Parsons stays on PUP

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@UnderdogNFL @PardonMyTake Lions & Laporta:

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@UnderdogNFL Knight szn

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@__my__at Lake life is the best

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@EthBetz 🙌🏽

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@Jasmine_Parker LFG