Wolfrüm

Crypto millionaire since 2014. Top 1% Binance trader. Institutional-grade analysis across crypto and equities.

[Wolfrüm @Wolfrum]

MARKET INTEL & ALPHA —

⚖️ Macro & Micro
$QQQ | $SPY
> Trend and market sentiment
> Weekly

⛓️ Crypto
$BTC | $ETH | $SOL | $XRP
> Key technical levels
> Weekly

🤖 Mag 7 & AI Stocks
> Key technical levels
> Weekly

⚡ Breaking News & Insights
> Real-time thoughts
> Daily

[Rekter @Rekter]

$SOFI #SOFI
Down 50% from highs. CEO buying. Short report swirling.

1/ THE SETUP
SOFI is trading at $15.70.
Down from $32.73 November high.
At a level that decides the next 6 months.

2/ THE BUSINESS
Digital bank and lending platform.
Started in student loans, now does everything:
banking, investing, mortgages, even crypto.
Think: Chase, but built for people under 40.

3/ THE NUMBERS
Revenue: +41% YoY ($1.1B)
10 straight profitable quarters
Net interest margin: 5.94%
Adjusted EBITDA: +62% YoY

4/ BULL CASE
Stablecoin launch on Solana
PrimaryBid acquisition equals capital markets play
CEO buying on the open market
2026 guide: 30% revenue growth
Target if it works: $25-28

5/ BEAR CASE
Short-seller report still unresolved
Q2 guidance came in soft
Crypto revenue costs are eating margins
Morgan Stanley cut to $16, Underweight
Downside: $12

6/ WHAT I'M WATCHING
Does $15 hold? That's THE line.
Any regulatory response to the short report
Q2 print in late July

7/ MY TAKE
The fundamentals don't match the price action.
But broken charts take time to heal.
I'd rather be early than chase, adding in tranches under $15.

[Rekter @Rekter]

ethereum:native #Ethereum
At ~$2,265, within a 52-week range of $1,388–$4,954. ETH is the canary in the coalmine. Down ~3% on the week while BTC managed +1.46% — ETH is taking it harder across every macro pulse. Monday opened at $2,370, hit $2,425, then sold off to $2,250 before recovering to $2,304 by mid-week, slipping to ~$2,265 Friday. ETH’s correlation to the Nasdaq 100 has climbed to 0.78 over the past 30 days — it’s trading as high-beta tech, not as a separate asset. CPI Tuesday: BTC -1.2%, ETH -2.2%, ETH lost $2,300 support. The 50/200-day MA cluster at $2,335-$2,367 remains the brick wall and was never seriously tested this week. The Ethereum Foundation unstaked 21,271 ETH from Lido as part of treasury rebalancing — supply-side pressure at the worst possible moment. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits flipped bearish. Coinbase BTC Premium Index stayed negative, signaling weak US spot demand. Bullish offsets: Whales bought 140,000 ETH ($322M) within a 96-hour window in early May. ETH spot ETFs took +$77M last week before May 12’s $130M single-day outflow ended the streak. Glamsterdam upgrade in June 2026 expected to 3x Ethereum speed. Bullish case requires confirmed high-volume close above $2,400 → targets $2,700. Bearish case activates below $2,200 to retest $2,000.

ETH/Nasdaq correlation at 0.78. Tech rolled over Friday; ETH rolled over with it. $2,400 rejected. Lost $2,300. Foundation unstaking added supply. Whales bought 140K ETH. Mixed signals everywhere. Glamsterdam in June is the structural catalyst. Until then, ETH trades $2,200-$2,400, breaks both ways possible, and BTC drags it either direction.

[Rekter @Rekter]

Overall Market & Sentiment —

Macro: April CPI 3.8% YoY (hottest since May 2023), headline +0.6% MoM. Core CPI +0.4% MoM (vs. +0.3% consensus). April PPI +6.0% YoY, core PPI +1.0% MoM (vs. +0.3% consensus) — the wholesale print was the real shock. Atlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow at 4.0% — the economy is too hot, not too cold. April retail sales firm. Empire State Manufacturing leaped to 19.6 from 11.0. 10-year yield at 4.55%, highest since July 2025. 30-year above 5%. 2-year above 4.0%. Treasury yields up 23 basis points on the week. Powell’s term ended Friday. Kevin Warsh was confirmed Friday as Fed Chair. CME FedWatch: rate hike probability for 2026 jumped to 45% from 1% a month ago. Rate cut probability dropped to 0%. Three FOMC voters were ready to dissent over policy-statement language at the last meeting. WTI crude +10% on the week to ~$105. Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal. Trump-Xi summit produced symbolic agreement that Strait of Hormuz should “remain a free waterway” but no material progress on Iran. China agreed to purchase 200 Boeing jets (only modestly above expectations). $30B trade truce mechanism floated on non-sensitive goods.

Micro: Q1 earnings essentially complete: 454 of 500 reported, 81% beat EPS, 73% beat revenue. Earnings growth on track to exceed 25% — sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, highest since Q4 2021. Net profit margin at 15-year high. SOX up 71.1% since March 30. S&P cap-weighted up 18.4% since March 30; equal-weighted up just 8.3% — the narrow rally signal. Cerebras (CBRS) IPO’d with +68% day-one surge, near $100B valuation on $500M revenue. Microsoft +4% Wednesday on Ackman’s Pershing stake disclosure. Boeing -8% on the week on weak China order news. Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, Oracle, Alphabet all -2% to -4% Friday. Intel -5%, AMD -3%, Micron -4%. Applied Materials reports next week. Nvidia reports May 20.

Sentiment: Schwab’s Martin: “Fed rate hikes are now being priced in, rather than cuts.” VIX rose Friday. The bullish AI narrative survived CPI but not PPI. Burry’s dot-com warning aged a week. The cap-weight vs equal-weight gap is at a multi-year extreme — narrow leadership is the historical setup for sharp reversals. Crypto Fear & Greed lifted modestly. BTC closed up on the week, ETH closed down — disconnect within crypto. Short-Bitcoin funds saw their largest outflow of 2026 — the bears finally capitulated, which is often a contrarian top signal. Polymarket at 56% probability BTC hits $85K by mid-May. Fed Chair transitions have historically delivered ~82% BTC drawdowns each time. Warsh is the first incoming Chair to have personally invested in an Ethereum L2.

The 10-week winning streak is over. The S&P touched 7,544 and gave back to 7,310. The Nasdaq lost 26,000. Yields spiked to one-year highs. CPI was the hottest since May 2023. PPI was 6% wholesale. Rate hike probability went from 1% to 45% in a month. Powell is out. Warsh is in. Oil at $105. Iran proposal rejected. The narrow AI rally that defied gravity for six weeks finally met an inflation print it couldn’t shake off. Earnings remain extraordinary, the consumer remains firm, GDPNow at 4.0% — but every one of those data points argues for hikes, not cuts. Nvidia May 20 is now the binary that decides whether this is a healthy pullback or the start of the unwind. If Nvidia beats and guides higher, the AI trade survives and we test 7,500 again. If it disappoints with the SOX 32% above its 50-day MA, every reason the bulls had to ignore CPI evaporates simultaneously. The bull case has never been more popular. The bear case has never been more priced in. The setup is symmetric. The catalyst arrives Tuesday.

[Rekter @Rekter]

bitcoin:native #Bitcoin
At ~$80,800, within a 52-week range of $60,187–$126,198. Bitcoin had a violent two-half week. Monday-Tuesday opened bullish — BTC ran to $82,000 by May 11, touching the 200-day MA at $82,228 for the fifth time this month. Rejected again. Same level, same result. CPI Tuesday dropped BTC ~1.2% to $80,389. PPI Wednesday added pressure. By Thursday-Friday, BTC tested $79,000 support and held. Weekly close near $80,800 — actually up 1.46% on the week, more resilient than equities. Whales added 16,622 BTC in May. Whales bought over 140,000 ETH worth ~$322M within a 96-hour window in early May. May 12 saw $233M in Bitcoin spot ETF outflows — the first negative day after a long inflow streak. The week prior, BTC ETFs took in $706M in inflows. Short-Bitcoin funds saw -$14M outflows, the largest weekly outflow of 2026 — bears capitulating. Bitcoin halving cut miner rewards from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC in April. Institutional weekly buying at 15,000-20,000 BTC vs. only ~450 BTC daily mined. Strategy’s average cost at $75,537 is the level that concentrates institutional attention if $77,500 breaks. Polymarket gives 56% probability BTC hits $85K by mid-May. Notable structural fact: the historical pattern of Fed Chair transitions and BTC — Yellen Nov 2013: -85.40%, Powell Dec 2017: -84.13%, Powell Nov 2021: -77.58%. Average: -82.37% drawdown. Warsh starts now. He’s the first incoming Fed Chair to have personally invested in an Ethereum L2 platform before taking the role.

200-day MA at $82,228 rejected for the fifth time. CPI hot, PPI hotter, yields spiking. And yet BTC closed UP on the week. Strategy’s $75,537 is the structural floor. Halving supply tightening. Whales accumulating. Bears capitulating. But three of three prior Fed Chair transitions delivered ~82% BTC drawdowns. The pattern doesn’t have to hold. But it always has.

[Rekter @Rekter]

$QQQ #QQQ
At ~$648, within a 52-week range of $402–$680. The Nasdaq dropped 1.5% Friday to 25,852, losing the 26,000 level. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) hit a fresh all-time high Monday before pulling back. SOX is up 71.1% since March 30, but trades 32% above its 50-day moving average — historically a position from which it doesn’t sustain. Over the past year SOX is up 143% while the S&P equal-weight is up just 15%. Tuesday’s CPI print hammered tech immediately. The AI-led rally that had driven everything for six weeks suddenly stalled as Treasury yields spiked. Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, Oracle, Alphabet all fell up to 4% Friday. Intel -5%, AMD -3%, Micron -4%. Cerebras (CBRS) closed in on $100B valuation Thursday at $500M of 2025 revenue — pure speculation territory — then dropped 4% Friday. Cisco reported Wednesday — modest beat, no game changer. Applied Materials reports next week. The single bull: Microsoft +4% Wednesday after Ackman’s Pershing Square stake disclosure. The Trump-Xi summit produced a tentative $30B trade truce on non-sensitive goods but nothing material on AI export controls. Nvidia’s May 20 earnings is now the entire load-bearing event. With yields spiking, oil at $105, and the AI trade trading 32% above its 50-day MA, a miss or weak guide would be catastrophic. A beat keeps the structure alive.

SOX 32% above 50-day MA. Nasdaq lost 26,000. Yields spiking. Cerebras at $100B on $500M revenue. Burry’s dot-com call is aging well. Nvidia May 20 is the entire trade. Beat = the rally survives. Anything else = the unwind that started Friday accelerates.

[Rekter @Rekter]

$SPY #SPY
At ~$731, within a 52-week range of $482–$751. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,310.34, down 1.2% on the day and ending its 10-week winning streak. The Nasdaq dropped 1.5% to 25,852. The Dow fell 1.1% to 49,054, losing the 50,000 level it had reclaimed mid-week. Wednesday delivered the high water mark: S&P closed above 7,500 for the first time ever at 7,544 and the Dow reclaimed 50,000. Friday took it all back. The week was defined by inflation reality. April CPI on Tuesday came in at 3.8% YoY (vs. 3.7% consensus, hottest since May 2023), with headline +0.6% MoM. April PPI on Wednesday was even uglier — wholesale inflation up 6.0% YoY, with core PPI +1.0% MoM (consensus +0.3%). The Empire State Manufacturing Index leaped to 19.6 from 11.0 (consensus 6.2). April retail sales came in firm. Atlanta Fed Nowcast revised Q2 GDP up to 4.0%. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.55% Friday — highest since July 2025. The 30-year crossed back above 5%. The 2-year breached 4.0%. Kevin Warsh was confirmed Friday as Fed Chair, with Powell’s term ending the same day. The Trump-Xi summit produced no breakthroughs on Iran but the two leaders agreed the Strait of Hormuz should “remain a free waterway” — a positive symbolic note that markets briefly celebrated Wednesday. Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal earlier in the week. WTI crude rose 10% on the week to ~$105. The S&P equal-weighted index is up 8.3% since March 30; the cap-weighted is up 18.4% — a brutally narrow rally now showing cracks. Cerebras (CBRS) closed in on $100B valuation on day-one trading Thursday, then fell 4% Friday. Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square disclosed a Microsoft stake — MSFT +4% Wednesday. Boeing -8% on the week after disappointing China order announcements.

10-week winning streak broken. CPI hottest since May 2023. PPI wholesale at 6%. 10-year at 4.55%, 30-year above 5%. Warsh takes the chair Friday. Rate hike probability now 45% for 2026 — up from 1% a month ago. The S&P hit 7,544 mid-week and gave back 230 points by Friday. The rally that ignored everything finally noticed inflation. The unwind has begun.

[Rekter @Rekter]

ethereum:native #ETH
Right on the 100MA ($2,149). Last time it tested this in an uptrend it rocketed.

RSI 39, MACD still bearish, but the setup is there. Clarity around the corner.

Backtest or breakdown, we’ll see.

[Rekter @Rekter]

ethereum:native #Ethereum
I’m even starting to doubt my ETH thesis.

Questioning the value proposition and whether the coin itself has value or just the software platform.

Basically the beginnings of my capitulation. Knowing this, we are close!

I think 30 to 45 days. A lot of capital is on the sidelines waiting on the Clarity Act to settle.

For those who do not know how bills work: the bill passed out of markup committee. That’s the bill the Senate is proposing. Now the bill needs to be merged with the House’s bill.

Then it needs to be debated, and if it gets out of that in a timely manner, sent to the floor for a vote.

Technically today meant nothing. It was nice to see cross the aisle momentum in a 15-9 vote instead of the projected 13-11

Meaning there are possibly more Democrats for the bill than initially anticipated.

Ideally, the merging happens in May, the vote in June, with Trump signing July 4.

I don’t think ETH or BTC take off until the vote passes in the Senate in June, which puts us at 30 to 45 days.

After that, we have BTC $150k+ and ETH $5k+ by year end.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Oh, interesting that the world is waiting for the US to develop a governing framework. The UK advised that they halted progress on their crypto legislation to align with the US bill. The EU is most likely doing something similar. When they say crypto capital of the world, they mean it.

[Rekter @Rekter]

Overall Market & Sentiment —

Macro: April nonfarm payrolls +115,000 (vs. +65,000 expected). Unemployment held at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings +0.06 to $37.41 (+3.6% YoY). Jobless claims at 200,000 — moving slightly higher but still benign. Construction spending +0.6% in March. Q1 productivity slowed to +0.8% from +1.6% in Q4 2025. April S&P Global Services PMI rose to 51.0 from 49.8, but new business intakes fell into contraction for the first time in two years — the demand destruction warning is starting. Oil pulled back -7.3% on the week to $94.90 WTI on hopes of a U.S.-Iran 14-point one-page MOU through Pakistani mediators. Brent ~$100. The ceasefire technically held despite violent exchanges in the Strait Thursday. Iran is reviewing the U.S. proposal. Talks expected to resume next week. Four FOMC dissents on April 29 — the most since 1992. CME FedWatch: 17% probability of a 2026 rate hike vs. 12.6% for a cut. JPMorgan economists warn supply buffers are eroding and “demand destruction” from sustained energy prices is beginning. New home sales +7.4% MoM to 682K, but median price fell -6.2% YoY to $387K — affordability cracking. Powell delivered an “urgent warning” to investors. May 15 brings the “Fed double whammy.”

Micro: Earnings season closing as the strongest in years: 89% of S&P 500 reported, 84% EPS beat (highest since Q2 2021), revenue growth blended at 11.3% (highest since Q2 2022), net profit margin at 13.4% (15-year high). All 11 sectors reporting YoY revenue growth. Q1 EPS growth highest since Q4 2021. CY 2026 EPS growth raised to 21.0%. AMD at $700B market cap. Cisco led the Dow Friday on AI demand. Akamai +28.5% on raised guidance. Fluence Energy +30%. Rackspace +12.5%. Spirit Airlines began wind-down. Salesforce -3.02% Friday, McDonald’s -2.80%, Home Depot -1.51% — the consumer/cyclical side is weakening. CoreWeave -7% on softer guidance and rising capex. The bifurcation is extreme: AI/semis vertical, consumer/industrial flat-to-down.

Sentiment: VIX at 17.08, very low. Crypto Fear & Greed has lifted but still cautious. Mary Ann Bartels (Sanctuary Wealth) calls for S&P 10,000-13,000 within three years on AI productivity. Michael Burry on the other side: “Feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.” 75% of institutions and 71% of retail rate BTC undervalued. Pending crypto legislation expected to provide clarity. Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac preparing crypto as mortgage collateral. The bull camp: jobs holding, oil falling, earnings perfect, ceasefire mostly intact. The bear camp: SOX up 65% YTD, four Fed dissents, services demand contracting, Spirit collapsing, CAPE at second-highest in history.

Ten weeks up. S&P at 7,399. Nasdaq through 26,000. SOX up 65% YTD. AMD at $700B. April jobs beat by 50,000. Earnings best since 2021. Net profit margins highest in 15 years. And on the other side: Burry calling dot-com, Fed split 4 ways for the first time since 1992, services demand contracting, Spirit Airlines liquidating, ETH structurally broken below all EMAs. The S&P has now climbed nearly 17% from the March 30 lows. Barclays’ 7,650 is 3% away. Sanctuary Wealth is calling 10,000-13,000. And nobody — nobody — wants to short into Nvidia earnings on May 20 or the Fed double whammy on May 15. The path of least resistance is still up. The setup for the unwind is structurally pristine. Both can be true at the same time. They usually are right before the second one becomes the only one that matters.

[Rekter @Rekter]

ethereum:native #ETH
At ~$2,323, within a 52-week range of $1,388–$4,954. ETH continues to be the relative laggard. Despite a brief surge to $2,412 Wednesday on the broader risk-on move, ETH fell back below $2,300 by Friday and closed the week roughly flat-to-down. Ethereum is below all major EMAs (20, 50, 100, 200-day) — that’s a death cross structure across multiple timeframes. The 200-day MA at $2,367 has been the brick wall. ETH is forming lower highs and lower lows in the near term. Q1 2026 saw 200.4 million ETH transactions — the highest ever, double 2023 lows — confirming the network usage is real even as price stagnates. Ethereum’s DeFi TVL dominance has dropped to 53%, approaching a multi-year low as L2s and other chains absorb activity. ETF outflows extended into early May. Stablecoin supply on Ethereum still at $180B+. Glamsterdam upgrade targets H1 2026 with proposer-builder separation for L1 scaling. The corporate ETH treasury narrative is building — companies adopting ETH for staking yield rather than passive BTC storage. ETH/BTC ratio continues to slip. May seasonality is historically bullish (avg 34.7%, median 18.4%) but May 2022 was -29.2% under similar Fed-hawkish conditions. Resistance: $2,400, then $2,500. Support: $2,260, then $2,000.

Death cross structure. Below all EMAs. Highest transactions ever, but DeFi dominance falling. ETH is structurally broken near-term while the rest of risk goes vertical. $2,400 has rejected for the fifth time. Until ETH closes above $2,420 monthly, the trend is down. The seasonality stat is the only bull case left.

[Rekter @Rekter]

bitcoin:native #BTC
At ~$80,000, within a 52-week range of $60,187–$126,198. Bitcoin had its best week in months, rallying from ~$77K Sunday to a high of $82,305 Wednesday — the highest level since January 31, before the war began. Friday’s close was around $79,700-$80,000. BTC is up ~2-5% on the week. April spot Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $2.44B — best month since October 2025. Cumulative ETF inflows since launch at $58.5B. BlackRock’s IBIT holds ~812,000 BTC ($62B). Mining difficulty dropped on May 2 to 131.43T from 135.59T, improving miner profitability. Miners have actually pulled 3,400 BTC out of reserves since April — they’re taking profits, not panic selling. Whale wallets holding 1,000+ BTC have grown by 142 addresses over six months. The carry trade in funding rates persists — institutions long spot via ETFs, short futures. Standard Chartered cut its 2026 target to $150K (from $300K), citing slower ETF absorption. BeInCrypto’s on-chain model targets $82K average for May. Trump continues advocating for the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are preparing to count crypto as an asset for mortgages. Pending crypto legislation is expected to bring regulatory clarity. The 100-day EMA breakout from late April is now confirmed. Next resistance: $85-88K. Critical support: $77K.

Highest level since pre-war. $82K touched, holding near $80K. ETF flows back to October-2025 strength. Institutions accumulating, miners taking profits — both healthy. The carry trade keeps the structure orderly. $85K is the next gate. Pending crypto legislation could be the catalyst that sends it through.

[Rekter @Rekter]

$QQQ #QQQ
At ~$655, within a 52-week range of $402–$660. The Nasdaq absolutely exploded this week — +4.5% to a fresh ATH at 26,247. The semiconductor index (SOX) is up 65% YTD; the S&P Tech sector has rallied nearly 35% since April 27. Friday alone, S&P Tech surged 3.27%. AMD crossed $700B market cap, joining the trillion-dollar club’s outer ring with Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia. AMD is up 66%+ in 2026. Nvidia gained another 2.80% Friday. Cisco led the Dow at +3.26% on AI data center networking demand. Apple +2.22%. AMD struck an MOU with Rackspace (RXT +12.5%) for an enterprise AI cloud for regulated industries. Akamai surged 28.5% after raising full-year guidance. Five9, Atlassian, Twilio all part of last week’s software rerating continued higher. Memory chips — Micron, SanDisk — went vertical. Fluence Energy +30% after fiscal Q2 EBITDA beat. CoreWeave dropped 7% on softer Q2 revenue guidance and raised capex (now $31-35B for 2026). Taiwan Semi April revenue up 17.5% YoY. The single bear: Michael Burry compared the SOX index trajectory to the run-up before March 2000’s collapse, warning “feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.” Nvidia earnings May 20 remain the load-bearing event.

Nasdaq through 26,000. SOX up 65% YTD. S&P Tech up 35% since April 27. AMD at $700B. The AI trade went vertical this week. Burry called it dot-com. The pattern is the pattern. Until Nvidia prints May 20, every dip is bought and every short is squeezed. After May 20, the entire structure gets stress-tested.

[Rekter @Rekter]

$SPY #SPY
At ~$740, within a 52-week range of $482–$740. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, up 0.84% on the day, marking the tenth consecutive winning week — the longest streak since 2024. Weekly gain of 2.3%, with a fresh all-time high. The Nasdaq exploded 4.5% on the week, breaking 26,000 for the first time in history and closing at 26,247. The Dow lagged, up just 0.2% on the week, ending at 49,609. The April jobs report was the catalyst Friday morning — nonfarm payrolls came in at +115,000 vs. expectations of +65,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. Job gains led by health care, transportation, and retail. The labor market is bending, not breaking. Earnings season is essentially in the books — 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported, 84% beat EPS (highest since Q2 2021), revenue growth blended at 11.3% (highest since Q2 2022). Net profit margin at 13.4%, the highest in 15+ years. The Q1 EPS growth rate is now the highest since Q4 2021. Q2-Q4 2026 forecasts: 19.9%, 23.2%, 20.7%. CY 2026 EPS growth raised to 21.0%. The Fed dissents on April 29 hit four — the most since 1992. CME FedWatch puts a year-end rate hike probability at 17% versus 12.6% for a cut. Spirit Airlines officially began shutting down operations Friday after its $500M government rescue collapsed. Oil pulled back to ~$94 WTI on the week (-7.3%) on hopes of a U.S.-Iran 14-point one-page MOU emerging through Pakistani mediators. Brent stabilized around $100. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire technically held despite violent military exchanges in the Strait Thursday.

Tenth straight winning week. Nasdaq through 26,000. S&P at 7,399. The melt-up has now eclipsed every reasonable year-end target — Barclays’ 7,650 is just 3% away. Earnings are crushing. Jobs are holding. Oil is falling. But Burry is screaming dot-com, the Fed is split four ways, and Spirit just collapsed. Trim the rip is the thesis nobody wants to execute.

[Rekter @Rekter]

Overall Market & Sentiment —

Macro: The war is back in the picture. Trump vowed Friday to maintain the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written statement refusing to give up nuclear or missile technologies and signaled Tehran would keep control of the Strait. Brent crude jumped above $111, WTI near $105 — both up 12% on the week. Oil has soared 25%+ over the past two weeks as the Strait stalemate deepens. Gas at $4.30, up 42–44% from pre-war levels. Exxon’s net income fell 45%, Chevron’s 36% — and these are the supermajors with diversified portfolios. The 30-year Treasury yield at 5%. Three Fed officials are publicly pushing back on rate cuts. May 15 brings what The Motley Fool called “a historic Federal Reserve double whammy.” Powell delivered an “urgent warning” to investors mid-week. CY 2026 EPS growth forecast now at 21.3%, up from 18.6% a week ago. Forward P/E at 20.9. Shiller CAPE at ~38, second-highest in history. Spirit Airlines is collapsing.

Micro: Earnings remain spectacular: 63% of S&P 500 reported, 84% beat EPS — highest since Q2 2021. Q1 blended EPS growth 13%+. Net profit margin at 13.4%, the highest in 15+ years. Apple, Alphabet, Tesla all delivered strong results. Caterpillar beat on AI power gen demand and record backlog. Five9’s beat sparked a software rerating. But Nvidia and Meta both lost ground on the week. OpenAI reportedly missing internal revenue targets — a real first crack in AI demand narrative. Roblox -17% on guidance cut. Spirit Airlines facing wind-down. Energy supermajors beat earnings but reported 36–45% profit declines on production stymied by Middle East. Q2-Q4 2026 EPS forecasts: 21.3%, 23.0%, 20.6% — these are aggressive, and they’re the load-bearing wall under the multiple.

Sentiment: VIX low. Crypto Fear & Greed at 26 — still Fear despite BTC near 3-month highs. The disconnect between equity euphoria (record highs, Nasdaq through 25K) and crypto caution remains. Bank of England warning on tech valuations. Berkshire’s Greg Abel sent investors a “$397 billion warning” — Buffett’s successor flagging concerns. Powell’s mid-week comments described as an “urgent warning.” But oil up 12% on the week. Brent over $111. Khamenei dug in. Blockade firm. The market is celebrating earnings; oil is reminding everyone the war isn’t actually over.

Nine straight winning weeks. S&P at 7,230. Nasdaq through 25,000. Apple beat. Earnings beating across the board at the highest rate since 2021. Net profit margins at 15-year highs. And yet — oil up 25% in two weeks. Khamenei refusing to budge. The Strait still mostly closed. Three Fed officials pushing back on cuts. The 30-year at 5%. OpenAI missing internal targets. The bull case has never been more popular: ceasefire holding (sort of), earnings perfect, AI re-accelerating, Fed eventually cutting. The bear case has never been more ignored: oil up 12% this week alone, valuations at second-highest CAPE in history, the war isn’t over, and the carry trade in BTC funding rates is the only structural arbitrage keeping crypto orderly. May 15 is the Fed double-whammy. May 20 is Nvidia. Until then, the tape is bid and FOMO wins. After that, the entire 12% rally from March 30 gets retested.

[Rekter @Rekter]

$ETH #Ethereum
At ~$2,310, within a 52-week range of $1,388–$4,954. ETH was the relative loser this week — down slightly while BTC held flat and equities made new highs. Friday opened at $2,256 and recovered to $2,284 intraday before settling near $2,310 on Saturday. ETH spot ETFs posted $160M in net weekly outflows as of April 29 — three consecutive days of net outflows led by BlackRock’s ETHA (-$37M) and Fidelity’s FETH (-$48M on Apr 29 alone). Cumulative ETH ETF inflows still positive at $11.94B with $13.10B AUM. The daily CRT range runs from $2,230 to $2,370. The 200-day MA at $2,345 is the key bull/bear line — ETH is pinned just below it. The 50-day EMA at $2,322 is acting as resistance. May is historically ETH’s strongest month, averaging 34.7% gains with 18.4% median across all years. But May 2022 was -29.2% under similar macro conditions (aggressive Fed, rising yields). The 30-year Treasury is at 5%, and three Fed officials are pushing back on easing. ETH/BTC ratio has continued to slip. The $2,400 ceiling has rejected ETH four times now. Aave V4 launched on Ethereum March 30 — major DeFi infrastructure upgrade. ETH supply is roughly 70% in profit, with 30-day realized price at $2,100.

Pinned below the 200-day MA. ETF outflows for three days. May seasonality is bullish but 2022 says be careful. $2,400 is the wall. Break it and $2,500-$2,600 is the next stop. Lose $2,230 and $2,000 is back in play. ETH is the underperformer of the rally — and that may matter more than the seasonality stat.

[Rekter @Rekter]

$BTC #Bitcoin
At $77,500, within a 52-week range of $60,187–$126,198. Bitcoin spent the week range-bound between $75,300 and $78,300, closing Friday near $77,500 — up modestly week-over-week. The breakout above the 100-day EMA from two weeks ago held. April delivered $2.44B in net spot Bitcoin ETF inflows — the strongest monthly figure since October 2025. Cumulative ETF inflows since the January 2024 launch reached $58.5B. BlackRock’s IBIT holds approximately 812,000 BTC ($62B), about 62% of the ETF market. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, which launched April 8, has $163M in inflows with zero outflows. A Coinbase/Glassnode joint report found 75% of institutional investors and 71% of retail investors view BTC as undervalued — extreme consensus inside a Fear environment. BUT: April 29 saw $89M in IBIT outflows, the largest single-day sell-off, ending a 9-day inflow streak. Crypto Fear & Greed at 26. Funding rates at -5% (30-day average) versus the +8% historical norm — institutions are long spot via ETFs and short futures for the carry trade, not making a directional bet down. Mining difficulty drops May 2 to 131.43T from 135.59T, improving miner profitability and reducing forced selling. Standard Chartered cut its 2026 target from $300K to $150K, citing slower ETF absorption than expected. BeInCrypto’s model projects $82K average for May. Mining economics are now near breakeven. The next test is $80K — break it and $90K is mostly empty air.

Range-bound at the highs. April was the best ETF month since October. 75% of institutions call BTC undervalued. The carry trade is keeping funding negative without being bearish. $80K is the gate. Break it and the path to $90K is clear. Lose $75K and the breakout fails.

[Rekter @Rekter]

$QQQ #QQQ
At $622, within a 52-week range of $402–$648. The Nasdaq hit a fresh record at 25,114.44, breaking 25,000 for the first time ever — up about 1% on the week. Apple was the standout: +3% Friday on a strong beat and upbeat guidance, lifting all of mega-cap tech. Memory stocks (SanDisk, Micron) ripped. Five9’s 30% surge on solid earnings calmed fears about AI eating software margins, sending Atlassian and Twilio higher. Wolfspeed +26% on new executive appointments. But the Mag 7 was mixed: Nvidia and Meta both ended the week lower. Nvidia got hit by a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI is missing internal revenue and growth estimates — the first real chink in the AI demand narrative. Nvidia’s market cap ($4.87T) is now within striking distance of Alphabet ($4.55T), narrowing the gap from the $5T peak. Roblox cratered 17% on Friday after slashing 2026 bookings guidance. Bank of England’s Sarah Breeden warned again about stretched tech valuations. Nvidia reports earnings May 20 — that print is now the single most important event for the rally’s continuation.

Nasdaq through 25,000. Apple delivered. Software is being rerated higher on Five9’s lead. But Nvidia is fading and OpenAI may be missing internal targets. The $5T cap has become resistance, not support. Nvidia’s May 20 earnings call is the entire AI trade in one event. Until then, it’s Apple’s market.

[Rekter @Rekter]

$SPY #SPY
At ~$723, within a 52-week range of $482–$724. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,230.12, up 0.29% on the day, marking the ninth consecutive winning week and a fresh all-time high. The Nasdaq surged 0.89% to 25,114.44, breaking the 25,000 level for the first time. The Dow slipped 0.31% to 49,499 as cyclicals lagged. Apple was the catalyst — +3% Friday after beating Q1 estimates and offering upbeat guidance. Mag 7 earnings split the week: Apple, Alphabet, and Tesla outperformed; Nvidia and Meta capped a week of losses. Five9 soared ~30% on strong earnings, reassuring investors worried about AI disruption to software. Atlassian, Twilio, and Wolfspeed (+26%) all surged. Caterpillar beat handily on AI data center power generation demand and a record backlog. But underneath, oil quietly ripped higher — Brent rose above $111, WTI near $105, both up 12% on the week — after Trump vowed to maintain the U.S. naval blockade and Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed not to give up nuclear/missile programs or relinquish control of the Strait. Oil has surged 25%+ over the past two weeks. Gas is at $4.30, up 42–44% from pre-war levels. Exxon’s net income fell 45%, Chevron’s 36%. Earnings season is now 63% complete — 84% of S&P 500 reporters beat EPS, the highest since Q2 2021. Q1 blended EPS growth at 13%+, Q2-Q4 forecasts at 21.3%, 23.0%, and 20.6%. Spirit Airlines is preparing to cease operations after government bailout talks failed. Forward 12-month P/E sits at 20.9, well above 5-year (19.9) and 10-year (18.9) averages.

Ninth straight winning week. New ATH at 7,230. Nasdaq through 25,000. Mag 7 earnings mostly delivered. But oil up 12% on the week. The blockade is firm. Khamenei is dug in. The market is now fully ignoring the Strait while pricing perfect earnings and ceasefire continuity. Disconnects this wide rarely persist. Watch oil — it’s the only honest signal left.

[Rekter @Rekter]

$BULL #BULL
Classic bull flag forming on the daily.

Controlled pullback on contracting volume, holding all key MAs. RSI reset from overbought without breaking trend, currently at 65. Breakout above $7.52 opens the path to challenge the 200MA in the $9–10 zone.

Measured move from the bottom of the flagpole targets $10–12.

Possible this runs over the next 2–3 weeks into ER on 5/21. Either it gets rerated at ER, or whales that missed this move use the event to tank price and scare retail out of more shares.

Point being, I don’t know if we see single digits again by year end.

[Rekter @Rekter]

Overall Market & Sentiment —

Macro: Trump extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire indefinitely on Tuesday, removing the two-week deadline that had been overhanging markets. But progress is uneven — Iran fired on three ships near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, and Iran’s president called the blockade a “major obstacle” to peace talks. Trump said there is no deadline for Tehran to respond to his peace proposal. Oil whipsawed during the week — pulled higher Wednesday/Thursday on the ship incident, then settled. The Strait situation remains “open in name, restricted in practice.” The Fed remains on hold at 3.50%–3.75%. Bank of England’s Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden warned tech valuations are stretched. Forward 12-month P/E at 20.9 — above both 5-year (19.9) and 10-year (18.9) averages. Shiller CAPE at ~38, second-highest in history. Q1 2026 S&P EPS growth blended at 12.9%, the 6th straight quarter of double-digit growth. 2026 full-year EPS growth forecast: 17–18%. 2027: another 17%.

Micro: 28% of S&P 500 reported. 84% beat EPS, 81% beat revenue — both above 5-year averages. Energy swinging from -12% in 2025 to +22% in 2026. Materials accelerating from 5% to 27%. Communication Services slowing from 19% to 5%. Intel +23% Friday — best earnings reaction of the season. Texas Instruments +18% Wednesday — best day since 2000. SOXX up 17 straight sessions, +23% on month. Nvidia retook $5 trillion. ServiceNow -18% on Middle East exposure dragging subscription growth. IBM -8% on unchanged guidance. Lockheed missed estimates. American Airlines beat but cut 2026 guidance significantly on fuel costs. Meta announced 10% layoffs (~8,000) to redirect spending to AI. Tesla announced “substantially increased” capex. Comcast beat. United Rentals beat and raised guidance. Q2-Q4 2026 earnings growth forecast at 20.6%, 22.7%, 20.4% — these are the numbers that need to materialize for the multiple to be defended.

Sentiment: VIX remains low. Crypto Fear & Greed at 31 — improving but still Fear. The disconnect between equity euphoria (record highs, semis vertical) and crypto caution (still Fear) is unusual. Wall Street analysts are leaning bullish into next week’s mega-cap tech earnings — but Bank of England warning on stretched valuations is the first central bank to publicly flag the risk. Forward P/E at 20.9 versus 19.9 5-year average. Wall Street median S&P target ~7,650 — already only 7% above current. Some firms now revising targets higher. The bull camp says: ceasefire holding, earnings crushing, AI re-accelerating, Fed stable. The bear camp says: CAPE at 38, P/E at 20.9, 17 straight semi sessions, $5T Nvidia, war not actually over.

Eight winning weeks. The S&P up over 12% from the March 30 low. Nvidia back at $5 trillion. Intel up 23% in a session. Semis up 17 straight days. Earnings beating across the board. Ceasefire extended. This is what melt-up phases look like — and they are notoriously hard to short and easy to chase. Next week is the make-or-break test: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon all report. If they beat and guide higher, this rally extends into May and Barclays’ 7,650 target gets hit. If even one of them disappoints on AI capex efficiency or guidance, the entire foundation cracks. Crypto is back near pre-war levels but lagging equities — historically unusual. The Strait is open in name only, the war isn’t over, and valuations are at levels that have only ever ended one way. But for now, the trend is your friend, the tape is bid, and FOMO is winning. Trim the rip starts to look smarter every week — but no one wants to be the one who sells before earnings.