Wonder Ben

.

[Balaji @balajis]

AI OVERPRODUCTION

China seeks to commoditize their complements. So, over the following months, I expect a complete blitz of Chinese open-source AI models for everything from computer vision to robotics to image generation.

Why? I’m just inferring this from public statements, but their apparent goal is to take the profit out of AI software since they make money on AI-enabled hardware. Basically, they want to do to US tech (the last stronghold) what they already did to US manufacturing. Namely: copy it, optimize it, scale it, then wreck the Western original with low prices.

I don’t know if they’ll succeed.
But here’s the logic:

(1) First, China noticed that DeepSeek’s release temporarily knocked ~$1T off US tech market caps.

(2) Second, China’s core competency is exporting physical widgets, more than it is software.

(3) Third, China’s other core competency is exporting things at such massive scale that all foreign producers are bankrupted and they win the market. See what they’re doing to German and Japanese cars, for example.

(4) Fourth, China is well aware that it lacks global prestige as it’s historically been a copycat. With DeepSeek, becoming #1 in AI is now something they actually consider possibly achievable, and a matter of national pride.

(5) Fifth, DeepSeek has gone viral in China and its open source nature means that everyone can rapidly integrate it, down to the level of local officials and obscure companies. And they are doing so, and posting the results for praise on WeChat.

(6) Finally, while DeepSeek was obscure before recent events, it’s now a household name, and the founder (Liang Wengfeng) has met both with Xi but also the #2 in China, Li Qiang. They likely have unlimited resources now.

So, if you put all that together, China thinks it has an opportunity to hit US tech companies, boost its prestige, help its internal economy, and take the margins out of AI software globally (at least at the model level).

They will instead make their money by selling inexpensive AI-enabled hardware of increasing quality, from smart homes and self-driving cars to consumer drones and robot dogs.

Basically, China is trying to do to AI what they always do: study, copy, optimize, and then bankrupt everyone with low prices and enormous scale.

I don’t know if they’ll succeed at the app layer. But it could be hard for closed-source AI model developers to recoup the high fixed costs associated with training state-of-the-art models when great open source models are available.

Last, I agree it’s surprising that the country of the Great Firewall is suddenly the country of open source AI. But it is consistent in a different way, which is that China is just focused on doing whatever it takes to win — even to the point of copying partially-abandoned Western values like open source, which seemed like the hardest thing to adopt.

On that point: they did build censorship into the released DeepSeek AI models, but in a manner that’s easily circumvented outside China. So, you might conclude they don’t really care what non-Chinese people are saying outside China in other languages, so long as this doesn’t “interfere with China’s internal affairs.”

Anyway —this is an area I’ve been watching, and my reluctant conclusion is that China is getting better at software faster than the West is getting better at hardware.

[Adeyinka Amurawaiye 🔸 @ADYK_41]

Venomous snakes give the non-venomous ones a bad name. Terrible luck, really, being a non-venomous snake.

Because nobody cares that you're not poisonous; they're gonna try and kill you first.

At least as a venomous snake you can defend yourself.

[Adeyinka Amurawaiye 🔸 @ADYK_41]

When Zeihan spoke about American supremacy, he never envisioned that America would be fighting Canada and Mexico.

[Jordan Noone 🇺🇸 @jordannoone]

Going to be an exciting year

[Wonder Ben @WonderAttah]

Hmm. 🍏 vs 🍊

GDP is annual economic output. Market cap is valuation based on outstanding shareholding of the company's lifetime.. GDP is more akin to revenue

[-valar morghulis- @eldivine]

US GDP is $28trillion and the market cap of the Magnificient 7 is $18trillion. This stat is still sending me.

That's a lot of power and influence for just 7 companies.

[Wonder Ben @WonderAttah]

Tbf... Soo much insight!

[Adeyinka Amurawaiye 🔸 @ADYK_41]

Nobody:

@WonderAttah in 200 level: Whatever helps you sleep at night

[Osaretin Victor Asemota @asemota]

What? Gbemi Sagay of The Shops? Small world!! This man is a branding legend!! He came up with the brand for New Nigeria Bank. He was competing with another agency that came with 17 people and he came with just one colleague. Their pitch and brand ideas were far ahead. We signed!

[Fabrizio Romano @FabrizioRomano]

Lamine Yamal, ladies and gentlemen.

The youngest goalscorer in the history of the Euros, 16 years old…

…INSANE. 😳✨

[Atlas @DentesLeo]

10 years ago I made the decision to never correct anyone who’s wrong unless I’m paid to do that.

Never been happier.

[IAM!ERICA @EricaZelic]

LOL Google Suite is just as vulnerable but doesn't get attacked as much because everyone uses M365

[Scott Piper @0xdabbad00]

Google Cloud accidentally deleted a company's entire cloud environment (Unisuper, an investment company, which manages $80B). The company had backups in another region, but GCP deleted those too. Luckily, they had yet more backups on another provider.
https://t.co/v5WFxqUtaB

[Douglas Cheape @CheapeDouglas]

I am currently helping my wife look for the Lindt chocolate bunny I ate on Thursday.

[Tayo Oviosu 🗽 @oviosu]

"Pounded yam is just mashed potatoes" @AffiSupaStar

JESU CHRISTI!!

[Jelle @CryptoJelleNL]

Wishing you all a day of peace today as we remember the ultimate sacrifice for our sins.

Christ died on the cross for you, and for me - and He will rise again.

God loves you, gm.

[Wonder Ben @WonderAttah]

This is quite rich!!

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

A must read

An Honest Reflection after Two years since the Funds Inception

From Peninsula Capital

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

Worth the read

The Loser’s Game

By Charles D Ellis

[Aether Games @AetherGamesInc]

Ladies, gents, huntresses and wizards!
Casual reminder:

⚔️🏆@Arcade2Earn x @AetherGamesInc
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[Victor Boniface @boniface_jrn]

Give them
No be only amapiano
Na ogunpiano

[Nairametrics @Nairametrics]

Nigeria receives US$2.25 billion loan from Afrexim, UBA acts as Key Local Arranger - https://t.co/S9HkQvfNHi