I’m just a simple dog dad by day & business economist by night but it is not just a onetime tariff of 25% each way. Many goods cross the CAN/MEX/US border many times before they are complete, e.g. car parts can cross 8x. That means the effective tariff could be as high as 496%!
I’m amending @neiltyson ‘s quote to: “the economy is under no obligation to make sense to you.”
June’s inflation data was in the right direction, but service inflation still elevated (5.1% YoY) e.g. car insurance, shelter, medical.
This is what a soft landing looks like. 📊
The National Weather Service is forecasting Death Valley to hit 130°F (54.4°C) next Monday, which would tie the highest the highest temperature ever reliably recorded on Earth.
SIGNIFICANT SOLAR FLARE DURING EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC STORM:
As if the extreme geomagnetic storm weren't enough for space weather forecasters tonight, a significant solar flare is also occurring now too from the Active Region that is responsible for all the chaos closer to Earth.
This intense blast of x-ray energy just reached satellites close to Earth in eight minutes' time and may lead to an enhancement of solar energetic particles (radiation) as well headed into this evening. The solar flare is strongly ionizing the upper atmopsheric particles on the daylit side of Earth and will cause high frequency radio communications issues for several hours (to the already existing degradation caused by the extreme geomagnetic storm).
@KobeissiLetter We do have last mile problems with inflation. Chances are rising the Fed hold rates for the rest of the year. This is because of robust consumer spending in services , not because of the lack of it. Again look in the PCE data instead of misinterpret the headline.
#Econ101
@KobeissiLetter You are incorrect and you should not interpret top line numbers without digging into the reports.
Consumers spending remains strong which Exports - Imports in RGDP led to a larger than expected number on the trade balance. Also inventories were further drawn down. 1/2
Love this cover with amazing @LIT_LV Board member/Filipina/super star Sam Grimes! CONGRATS as well @IzackTenorio@WoodsGoods & Cory Frank-- well deserved! #40Under40
TY @Aarondklein for visiting #LasVegas this week. I enjoyed being able to spend time with you discussing your work on overdraft fees and poverty, as well as your work on the US dollar, sanctions, and global payment systems.
Hope to see you again!
@BrookingsInst@CBER_UNLV
I had so much fun. I’m still smiling. I loved reading about the sun (One in a billion!) and talking about the 8 planets in our solar system. Thank you Ed for having me back.
UNLV's @WoodsGoods made a return visit to Hickey Elementary and read in two classes.
One was Ms. Hutalla's kindergarten class & the other was our STAR program that focuses on kids with behavioral/emotional challenges.
Thank you Andrew for coming by for #NevadaReadingWeek
I used @ChatGPTapp to create this illustration of what @CBER_UNLV next Brews and Economic Views panel on AI might look like.
Join us Thursday, April 11th, 5:30pm for a discussion with academic and industry experts on the topic and Las Vegas.
Tickets:
https://t.co/u3xtPBx9eW
@USDA@federalreserve Lastly, weakened ag export demand in east Asia weighed on US Ag exports in 2023. It’s not the trade war, since ag exports with China hit a record in 2022 ($40.9 b)
But changing demand and supply has grain, feed, and certain meat exports slumping in 23’and 24.’
@TradeDiversion
There has been reporting in the news about the US running a trade deficit on agricultural exports in FY 2023 , which is forecasted to continue this year.
But there is more to the story than pluses and minuses. #MFGE
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@USDA@federalreserve 2) with a strong dollar and strong consumer demand, we kept buying (thus importing) horticultural products which make up ~50% of all Imports.
This was especially beneficial for Mexico🇲🇽 which accounts for 31% of imported horticultural products such as 🍅 🥑 🌶️
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