hayan shakil

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[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇵🇰🇹🇷🇸🇦🇶🇦 4 major Islamic powers are quietly building something that looks a lot like NATO.

Pakistan, Türkiye, Saudi, and Qatar are expanding defense coordination at a speed that Washington hasn't fully processed yet.

Here's what each brings to the table:

-Pakistan: nuclear weapons and one of the world's largest standing armies.

-Türkiye: Bayraktar drones, advanced missiles, and 80% domestic military production.

-Saudi and Qatar: the oil and gas money to fund weapons programs, bases, and everything in between.

Why does this matter?

The Iran war exposed something that couldn't be ignored anymore. Regional powers watched how U.S.-dependent security arrangements performed under pressure, and a lot of them didn't like what they saw.

The response is this: a potential military bloc that answers to no one in Washington, with the firepower and funding to back it up.

A NATO-style Islamic military alliance changes the balance of power in the Middle East fundamentally.

Source: DiplomaticEdit

[Shaiq Uddin @shaiquddin]

@SouthAsiaIndex Nominal GDP doesn't tell the full story. Compare wealth inequality, debt burden, and poverty. 800M Indians fall into vulnerable categories eligible for subsidized food. That's 3x our population! The better question is how Pakistan can reach $4T with a stronger HDI and equality.

[The Global Letter @TGLetter]

🚨 nobody is telling you what Iran actually hit tonight..

most people are calling Fujairah a "coalition target".. it isn't..

the ADCOP pipeline was built in 2012 for one specific reason.. so Abu Dhabi could keep exporting 1.5 million barrels a day even if the Strait of Hormuz went dark.. 406 kilometers of insurance policy routed entirely around the chokepoint..

Iran didn't hit a military base.. Iran hit the insurance policy..

and here's the part nobody's connecting..

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline.. the only other major Hormuz bypass.. was struck on April 8.. losing 700,000 barrels a day of throughput..

both bypasses.. hit.. within 30 days of each other..

this is the same playbook every single time.. you don't need to close the strait if you've already destroyed every route that avoids it..

Iran isn't blocking Hormuz.. it's making Hormuz the only option.. and then holding the key..

every barrel that used to route around the strait now has to go through it.. or not go at all..

the bypass was supposed to be the insurance policy..

they just canceled it.

there's a part 2 to this and only my followers are getting it.. don't miss it.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

RECAP:

Iran fired 19 projectiles at the UAE today; ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones. Fujairah's Oil Industry Zone is on fire. Most were intercepted.

Trump's response: "They were shot down for the most part. One got through. Not huge damage." He then refused to say whether Iran violated the ceasefire.

Lindsey Graham said hit them hard. Trump said not huge damage. That gap is the entire story.

Iran's official position: they didn't do it. The U.S. caused it by forcing ships through forbidden routes.

The Strait of Hormuz is closed again. The IRGC made it official after accusing the U.S. of breaching ceasefire terms by routing ships through "forbidden routes."

CENTCOM responded by sinking 6 Iranian boats that attacked commercial shipping. A South Korean cargo vessel caught an engine room fire while anchored in the strait. 24 crew on board, no casualties.

Israel raised its alert status, opened bomb shelters, and Netanyahu held an emergency security meeting. They are, per officials, "prepared for all scenarios."

A South Korean cargo ship got hit. Trump's response: South Korea should take some action, and noted the ship wasn't escorted. Trump told an ally their ship getting shot at is their problem.

A car plowed into a crowd in Leipzig, Germany. Multiple injured, no suspect details yet.

The ceasefire is either over or Trump is negotiating something nobody can see. One of those is more reassuring than the other.

[South Asia Index @SouthAsiaIndex]

Iran has replaced its reliance on UAE ports with Pakistani ports, specially Gwadar, as part of efforts to enhance the supply-chain security.

This decision comes after years of Iran depending on UAE ports — especially Jebel Ali Port — to handle the majority of its imports and transit operations.

Tens of billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian goods pass annually through the UAE ports to Iran.

Iran utilizing Pakistan’s Gwadar Port is expected to increase Pakistan–Iran trade by billions of dollars.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇮🇱 A rabbi is drawing a hard line between Judaism and Zionism.

Rabbi Elhanan Beck, citing Maimonides and core Jewish texts, says Judaism is a religion, not a nationality, not a race, not a geopolitical project.

"Judaism is a religion. Have nothing to do with a nationality. Nothing with a race."

I sat with Rabbi Beck to understand the 2 concepts, Judaism and Zionism, and how religious identity is being turned into a foreign policy weapon by Netanyahu and others.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇺🇸BREAKING: FOOTAGE AS TRUMP IS RUSHED FROM THE STAGE

[Umar Saif @umarsaif]

Finally the kind of role models Pakistani youth needs: Sualeh Arif.

Not property dealers, tax evaders, bank defaulters, rent seekers, born into wealth etc.

But a self-made kid from a middle-class family in Karachi. Studied at MIT, started a hugely impactful company, changed the way people write code, now worth over $ 1 Billion at the age of 26!

https://t.co/rLzJibEWcb

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇺🇸 BREAKING: Andrew Hugg, a U.S. Chief of Chemical Nuclear Surety, has reportedly been escorted out of the Pentagon and placed on administrative leave.

Why: O'Keefe caught him on hidden camera casually discussing U.S. chemical nerve agents, an Army chemist's death, and airstrikes on Iran.

The man responsible for nuclear and chemical weapons security was apparently talking about all of it on camera.

Source: @OKeefeMediaGroup, @DougAMacgregor

[South Asia Index @SouthAsiaIndex]

UAE is short of cash and is seeking a bail-out from United States to recover from the “shocks” of Iran-US war.

◾UAE, for first time in recent history, has asked US to provide UAE with a "financial lifeline" if the war continues.

◾UAE officials have proposed the idea of “currency swap” with US as a form of financial lifeline.

◾ Important to note that UAE asked Pakistan to return its $3.5B loan right away which Pakistan has returned.

Source: WSJ

[Syed Muzammil Shah @SyedMuzammilOFL]

Talks failed but history will remember the lengths Pakistan went to, to get it settled peacefully. We have punched miles above our weight & gave the world a glimmer of hope against all odds. We were the only avenue that gave hope to millions & millions of mothers & children who dreaded destruction. Proud of our diplomats. We know it’s a good news for a specific faction of anarchists in Pakistan but then again, until they get hold of affairs, let’s cherish what we did in the last two weeks for peace. Congratulations, Pakistan. And good luck to the world !!

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

Before this war, the theory was that having an American base in your country deters attacks from other countries

That trust is now broken

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇮🇷 Iran's 4 conditions for peace:

▪️control of Hormuz
▪️reparations
▪️frozen cash back
▪️regional ceasefire

The country whose navy is "gone," air force is "gone," and radar is "dead," per Trump this morning, just walked into Islamabad and told America to pay up.

Losing never looked this confident.

@KobeissiLetter

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

DEAR PAKISTAN, THANK YOU FOR WHAT YOU'VE DONE

As you know, I'm very critical of some of your domestic policies, but I applaud you for ending one of our generation's most dangerous wars

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran didn't win the war militarily. It won it strategically. And that's the kind of victory that lasts.

Tehran's goal was never to defeat the U.S. Air Force. It was to survive long enough for the economic pain to become unbearable for Washington.

38 days of closing Hormuz, spiking oil to $115, rattling every Gulf economy, and making Americans feel the war at the gas pump.

One analyst put it simply: "They made sure the war was felt in the U.S. I don't think Trump's going to try that again."

That sentence is the entire outcome of this war in 15 words.

Iran emerged with two things it didn't have on February 28th.

De facto control over the Strait of Hormuz with a framework to monetize it.

And a proven deterrent that makes any future large-scale attack carry a price tag no American president will want to pay.

The U.S. and Israel struck 12,300+ targets, sank much of Iran's navy, killed its Supreme Leader, and degraded its missile stockpiles.

By every traditional military metric, they dominated.

And yet the ceasefire happened on a timeline Trump didn't choose, under conditions Iran proposed, with the Strait still in Tehran's hands.

This is the part that should concern everyone most.

The regime emerged more hardline, not less.

The IRGC has more power than before the war.

The new Supreme Leader is taking a harder stance than his father.

And the protesters who rose up hoping American bombs would bring freedom are now being hunted as potential spies.

The war was supposed to weaken Iran and strengthen American leverage.

Iran is now collecting tolls on the world's most important waterway.

The war was supposed to create conditions for regime change.

The regime is more entrenched than ever. The war was supposed to end Iran's nuclear ambitions. Tehran says it will keep enriching.

Every stated objective failed.

The one unstated objective, Hormuz leverage over China, was handed to Iran instead.

Source: WSJ

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

Here's a few important points before I go to sleep:

1. Iran won the war. The terms of the ceasefire they shared give them control of the Strait of Hormuz, charging $2M per ship, pocketing $100 Billion a year.

Those numbers are wild!

And on top of it, the ceasefire proposal includes the lifting of all sanctions

Remember, one could say Iran has been in a state of war for decades due to the crippling American sanctions, and now this is all coming to an end

2. Trump did the right thing pulling out, not listening to the lunatic war mongers around him, and not listening to anyone in the Israeli lobby that may have wanted the war the continue.

As I said earlier today, a good leader knows when to walk away

3. I am not surprised we have a deal, I've mentioned it all day, as Trump's posts made it obvious to me he was pressuring Iran for some final concessions before accepting his off-ramp

4. Trump will twist this into a win, and his diehard supporters will believe him. This is a GOOD thing, as Trump no longer needs to militarily try to get a 'win'.

As I've said earlier in the day, Trump can (and just did) create his own offramp.

5. The Middle East will never look the same. I expect the Gulf to gradually normalize relations again with Iran, which started after Israel's strike on Qatar.

Also the balance of power will drastically shift away from Israel, and this may have massive positive implications on Lebanon, Syria, and possibly even Palestine.

6. China is the BIGGEST winner, as Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz means China is indirectly controlling it

7. Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz is a generational strategic loss for the U.S., and a risk to the dollar dominance (Iran can chip away at the Petrodollar)

8. Hezbollah will come out stronger from all this, possibly more powerful than it has been in decades (unless the deal involves Iran disbanding their proxy network)

9. I'm exhausted and need to sleep. Below there's some more info on my stance over the past 24 hours, as well as how we broke the story of a ceasefire almost an hour before any media outlet and Trump's post.

Good night everyone!

[Moeed Pirzada @MoeedNj]

This is the beginning of the End of the Empire..

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Unconfirmed reports of clashes between American special forces and Iranian Basij paramilitaries in Kohgiluyeh-Boyer Ahmad Province, the same area where the F-15E reportedly went down.

The provincial governor confirms deaths.

If true, U.S. boots are on Iranian soil for the first time in this war, fighting to bring their pilot home.

Source: Middle East Spectator, @officialrnintel

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇫🇷🇮🇷 IRAN'S PLAYING DIVIDE-AND-CONQUER WITH HORMUZ AND IT'S WORKING

Iran's got a system: block U.S. ships, let European ones through... but only if those countries stand up to Trump.

France crossed today no problem, Spain blocked airspace recently and got rewarded.

It's brilliant... and infuriating. They're splitting NATO by making it profitable to oppose Washington.

Every European ship that gets through proves you don't need America to keep trade flowing, you just need to not be America.

Trump's entire pitch was "they need us for security." Iran just showed Europe they need Trump less than Trump needs them.

He's gonna lose his mind and escalate hard, which is exactly what makes this strategy work. The madder he gets, the more Europe distances itself, the less likely he is to end this with a win.

Brilliant. And infuriating.

Source: CNN World

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

UPDATE:

Here’s a simplified summary of the Iran war and where we're at now:

Trump bombed Iran to get more influence over the strait of Hormuz, hoping for regime change (Venezuela 2.0)

He miscalculated, and the operation failed

He’s now seeking an off-ramp, the right move

Iran is emboldened by their strategic edge, and don’t want to give Trump his off-ramp unless they get significant concessions to advance their interests

So Trump will keep bombing Iran until they fold

In the meantime, Gulf nations are lost: They are very upset being dragged into this war and facing massive economic damage, but also now see Iran as an even bigger threat after being mercilessly bombed by them

And lastly, the biggest winner of all: Israel

They weakened their biggest enemy, are occupying Lebanon again while getting rid of Hezbollah, and now even pitching for pipelines through their port to replace the closure of the strait of Hormuz. But they’re also getting heavily bombed and running low on air defenses among munitions

Here’s a summary of where we’re at, and the ball is in Iran’s court: Give Trump his off-ramp, or they’ll escalate the war further. If they choose the latter, the world is in for a catastrophic year.