COACH K A L E O

I write about the nerdy stuff (eg quant) in markets for @business
And sometimes crypto and prediction markets. Opinions my own.

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

https://t.co/utZC9tn7X0

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

Parlays have long been some of the highest-margin products for sportsbooks.

Now on prediction markets, parlays - er, I mean combos - are presenting lucrative opportunities to market makers.

My story today 👇:

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

4/ Dividend-dodging ETFs (which trade in and out of other ETFs in order to avoid dividend payout)

https://t.co/NVWMulWiEy by VildanaHajric

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

For those curious about the tax-aware strategies targeted by Treasury here, here are the stories we've written about them:

1/ Funds that generate ordinary losses: https://t.co/fO2hU1P8lG

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

US Treasury officials just made some of their strongest remarks yet on tax-aware strategies, signaling particular concerns in:
- funds that generate ordinary losses
- 351 conversions
- box spread ETFs
- dividend-dodging ETFs

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

3/ Box-spread ETFs (which turn interest income into cap gains)

Of course there is zachmider's famous story on the BOXX ETF:

https://t.co/zOzDLi9bL0

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

“I would advise investors to be cautious when something looks too good to be true because it probably is.”

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

US Treasury officials just made some of their strongest remarks yet on tax-aware strategies, signaling particular concerns in:
- funds that generate ordinary losses
- 351 conversions
- box spread ETFs
- dividend-dodging ETFs

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

“It’s probably the most AI-resistant industry that exists. People are always going to want to watch sports.”

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

Jump Trading has doubled its prediction markets team this year to about 20 and plans to keep hiring

Head of PM Simon Johansen tells me and iboudway at this rate Super Bowl 2027 looks due for another 10x in volumes

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

“It’s probably the most AI-resistant industry that exists. People are always going to want to watch sports.”

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

Jump Trading has doubled its prediction markets team this year to about 20 and plans to keep hiring

Head of PM Simon Johansen tells me and iboudway at this rate Super Bowl 2027 looks due for another 10x in volumes

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

BlackRock rebalances on known dates, Vanguard spreads out the trades and doesn't disclose holdings every day

7/ But clearly it's back again!

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

6/ What's prob true is as index rebal trades spread, the effect has weakened and also started earlier, which for the desks mean you have to weather more vol in the stocks

https://t.co/9TexhNd8oP

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

I see index rebal is in the news again. One question we've covered both sides of over the years:

Do the profits come at the expense of index investors?

Thread 🧵👇

[Nishant Kumar @nishantkumar07]

EXCLUSIVE: Two Millennium trading pods run by Glen Scheinberg and Pratik Madhvani made about $3.7 billion in total last month or more than half of the about $6.6 billion profit generated by Millennium before fees in June https://t.co/7qRlA81afz

[COACH K A L E O @XCryptoKaleo__]

5/ So how has the index effect changed over time?

Greenwood-Sammon says it's weakened (for SPX at least) https://t.co/6Gkzf9APtz…

DFA says it's still there https://t.co/KvsGoWB6Uz