Alpha Vector

A long term investor***I do not PM.***

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer While the fundamental continues to be strengthened, the stock price continues to drop. This is very much disconnected😭

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer The bear case is around CXMT will use the ipo money to take share of the mobile and PC market. By then after data centre peak, MU will have less market share.

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer The worry is surplus supply coming up soon. Like the largest Chinese DRAM manufacturer will have ipo in HK. This scare the market.

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer Memory stocks and AI INFRA are getting slaughtered

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer Congratulations you are very good

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer Anthropic will be the biggest software winner this year when ipo comes

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

Autonomous delivery truck in Shenzhen

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer There are news that China is trying to increase memory capacity. Will the Chinese memory impact the price?

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

Unitree Unveils: GD01, A Manned Transformable Mecha, from $650,000 (CRED... https://t.co/VQ3jxxQFu9 via @YouTube

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

Lumentum $LITE

LITE (Lumentum) latest Q3 FY2026 results can be summarized as: "Strong earnings and guidance, revenue slightly below expectations, stock price retracing due to overly high expectations."

Revenue increased by approximately 90% year-on-year, non-GAAP EPS was higher than expected, and Q4 guidance is also significantly higher than market expectations. However, the market has already priced in the demand for AI optical communications very aggressively.

Mainstream investment banks/market views are generally positive but not unconditionally bullish. Simply put, while LITE's AI optical communication demand and upward earnings revisions are recognized, the current major points of contention are the valuation gap, expectation bias, reliance on a single large customer, and the fact that the stock price has already largely reflected the positive news.

My Perspective
I position LITE as a "High Beta AI Optical Communication Beneficiary Stock." Fundamentals are accelerating, but stock performance will highly depend on whether they can continue to "beat and raise" every quarter.

I will focus on tracking these four key indicators:
1.Whether Q4 revenue reaches the guidance of $960M – $1.01B.
2.Whether the non-GAAP gross margin can maintain near or above 47.9%.
3.Whether AI cloud customer orders continue to follow through.
4.Whether analysts continue to revise up FY2027 EPS.

LITE will be added to Nasdaq-100 on May 18.

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer As more LT contract being signed, the permanent case is getting stronger and the whole sector is being rerated.

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer Will it take shares from LITE ?

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer There is a lot of FUD that MU had already reach the top cycle. And too many people are bullish talking about the stock

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer What about looking at 2027? Is supply catching up soon?

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer It will drop for few days if everything goes smooth with the war. Then bounce back as usually happen

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TradexWhisperer Should I wait for blue candle before I get back in again?

[Pierre Ferragu @p_ferragu]

Almost there. Let’s get ready for it!

[Pierre Ferragu @p_ferragu]

Most analyses I read on tariffs & associated news flow are very bad and lack very basic critical sense. We published an analysis for our clients on Friday. Give this post a thousand likes and a thousand reposts, and we’ll make it available to all on X tomorrow.

[Pierre Ferragu @p_ferragu]

Don’t forget to like and retweet the below - full analysis freely available tomorrow if this reaches 1,000 likes!

[Alpha Vector @XD04212915]

@TeslaBoomerMama I added 100 shares today. Will buy another 100 shares next week