Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!)

Founded one of the first synthetic grass & golf systems companies in the US in 1998. I consult on large golf systems projects world-wide. Avid crypto investor.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@PedroHenri99288 Yes, I've expected this and large swings are very normal for Zcash. It's the most volatile asset in crypto. Not likely to go lower than $300 but there are many things that can affect the market.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

For those who don't follow me, came on here and called me names, said I didn't know what I was talking about and for the followers who unfollowed me because I didn't fit their "up only" narrative, this post is for you because maybe you'll learn something. I hate to see anyone get wrecked!

I have been analyzing #ZEC daily for years now. I'm not always correct as no analyst is. But I think I know Zcash as well as anyone on X. Just because an asset corrects to a level it should structurally, to create a nice base, does not mean it's macro bearish.

So let's look at the head and shoulders measured move here. It says price will hit the macro .5 fib at around $357. That makes sense to me as it's also in line with a previous area high as I've outlined with the box. So, anywhere between that number and $416 (.382 fib level) is logical.

Is this a guarantee? No, nothing is. It could easily go to the .618 around $300, which is in line with the structure it broke from, because it never retested that area.

Regardless, the lesson here is that when an asset goes parabolic without a proper reset or foundation establishment, it often goes back to do that eventually.

None of this has anything to do with the narrative you hear surrounding Zcash currently as I've been talking about this as a likely possibility well before this narrative even hit.

Learn to read the charts as they tell you everything you need to know...most of the time!

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@schwanald Thanks Don:)

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@Puer_Homme Thanks, that means a lot:)

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@KrakenOrange Appreciate that:)

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

#ZEC Macro Retrace Targets

After looking at the macro chart, these are the scenarios I'm watching most closely:

1.) $400-$420 (.382 retrace)

Most conservative target

Strong support area. Would reset sentiment while maintaining a very bullish structure.

2.) $300-$320 (.618 retrace + breakout retest)

Most attractive structurally

Retests the upper rail of the breakout that was never revisited. Would fully reset the parabolic move while still maintaining a higher low.

3.) $500 area (.236 retrace)

Possible, but may not be enough to fully reset the move

4.) Immediate breakout to new highs

Lowest probability scenario in my opinion

The biggest thing for me is that a move to $300 would not invalidate the bull case. In fact, it could create a much healthier chart than trying to force a breakout through major resistance after a huge run.

Just my opinion. Not financial advice.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@FanconyJea66121 Not really possible to know that at this point. I'm just pointing out what it could do. I wish I had a crystal ball!

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

Let's take a look at #LTC on the macro to put things into perspective. Often, when there's a market bottom, you can see a dip below a long term respected structure to flush out weak hands.

If Litecoin fell to the .786 macro fib level, that's 20% below the macro trend support. A move like that will typically recover back into structure relatively quickly since it's designed to liquidate leverage traders and late shorts.

I don't see it falling to the next order block as that would be a 45% drop below structure and there's no justification for that type of a move unless we saw some type of black swan.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@PedroHenri99288 There's no translation here

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@officialmattya Thanks, it doesn't come without lots of headaches and battering!!

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@ABCDCrypto92965 No, and I mentioned that in my post that narratives have nothing to do with this. I've been expecting this correction well before that because the charts have been screaming it.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

What we look for now that #ZEC fell through $500, is if it will perform a Livermore Pivot up into that level as a retest of the neckline from underneath.

If price can, somehow, push back through $500 and accept price above that level again, that would be a bullish move. As always, it's about volume expansion at key levels.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

A pretty clearly defined symmetrical bear flag forming on the 1H chart for #BTC. #LTC just fell out of an ascending triangle bear flag.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

Dogs, there's absolutely nothing like them!!🐶

[The Adorable Pups @TheAdorablePups]

I can watch this video all day 😍🐕

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

Yes, a bottom is near when you hear this stuff!

[Blockchain Backer @BCBacker]

Jim Cramer saying Bitcoin is dead and Dave Portnoy saying he is panicking in the same day makes me feel like I’m doing the right thing for sure. 😂

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

Simply noise. I don't pay attention to that stuff. The charts will tell you more than anything. You know I've been calling for the pullback we are seeing and none of my analysis included any narratives like this, whether good or bad. I ignore it all. The only black swan event that has affected the Zcash price was when the entire development team unexpectedly quit.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@funkseeker Now you know the areas to look for. Which one it ends up going to is the hard part but you have to have a plan for all of them.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@Williescream I don't agree with that. It's all about liquidity and where that liquidity is. Price ALWAYS moves towards the most liquidity, it's really that simple. I've stated that on this account more times than I can count.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@Ainis_Vi Far above that price in my estimation. I don't like to make long term predictions because that's really impossible.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

For those of you who hold or follow #XLM, an asset that I've owned for almost a decade, it is showing a very clear falling wedge structure on the 4H. I am expecting a decent pop to the upside in the coming days.

Keep in mind that with falling wedges, you often see them fall out of the bottom before reversing back through the top of the structure. In this case I would expect that to be a possible bounce at .20.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@KrakenOrange A price rise with no proportional correction to create a solid base is the problem. That's what would be healthiest. That's not a bearish outlook, simply a realistic one and what would be best for the asset to make higher prices. Too often people confuse correction with bearish.

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

@Puer_Homme I have no clue on that

[Eric Van Tassel (Not a Financial Advisor!) @XRPathologist]

Quick Recap of the Traditional 4-Year Cycle

$BTC halvings (every ~4 years, most recent April 2024) cut new supply issuance in half, historically sparking bull runs ~12-18 months later via scarcity plus speculation.

Typical pattern post-halving:

Bull phase: Strong gains, euphoria, blow-off top.

Bear phase: ~1 year of drawdowns (often 70-85% from peaks), accumulation. Recovery into next halving.

Examples aligned roughly with 2012/2016/2020 halvings. Post-2024 halving (reward to 3.125 BTC/block), we saw an ATH around $126k in Oct 2025, followed by declines as many call this the expected "bear leg" into much of 2026.

Scenario 1:

Cycle Continues (Status Quo Centralized Debt-Based System)

If macro liquidity, risk appetite, and fiat debt dynamics dominate (Fed policy, interest rates, global liquidity cycles), expect something like past bears:

2026 outlook: "Lame" or bearish year with sideways-to-down action. Support discussed around $65k - $75k (or lower in deeper scenarios, e.g., $50k mid-year per some analysts). Miners stressed, deleveraging, ETF flows volatile.

What to expect:

Risk-off sentiment hurts alts more than BTC. Accumulation opportunities in quality projects. Cycle "bottom" late 2026/early 2027, setting up for 2028 halving rally. Volatility persists but perhaps dampened vs. early cycles.

Drivers: No major monetary regime shift. Crypto remains a high-beta risk asset correlated to Nasdaq/tech/growth stocks. Institutions participate but still treat it cyclically. This view is held by several analysts.

Scenario 2:

Major Decentralized Shift (Gold/Bitcoin-Backed or Non-Debt System)

A true end to debt-based fiat (ending/reforming Fed, IRS overhaul, sound money standard) would be transformative. Bitcoin's fixed 21M supply makes it a prime "digital gold" contender in such a world.

However: Current reality (as of June 2026): The Trump administration is strongly pro-crypto, strategic Bitcoin Reserve, regulatory clarity, fintech integration into payments, stablecoin growth, ending certain IRS reporting burdens, anti-CBDC stance.

But there's no active "end the Fed/IRS" or full gold/Bitcoin standard push materializing as of yet. It's more pragmatic deregulation and U.S. leadership in digital assets than revolutionary monetary overhaul.

If a big shift happened:

Cycles could decouple or lengthen/flatten. Bitcoin becomes more "money" than speculative asset with lower volatility, steadier appreciation driven by adoption, sovereign buying, and scarcity rather than halving hype/leverage.

Risk-off dynamics weaken as BTC hedges inflation/debt better. Alts might thrive in a truly decentralized finance boom but face different risks (e.g., regulatory or tech).

What to expect:

Slower but more sustainable growth. Fewer 80% drawdowns. Market cap grows with global liquidity integration. "Super cycle" narratives gain traction, but with maturation (institutions, ETFs, corporates) reducing retail-driven mania. Drawdowns become shallower (e.g., 30-50% vs. 80%).

Many argue we're already seeing this evolutio, the cycle is "dead," "invalid," or mutating due to institutional inflows, bigger market cap, and macro sensitivity. Post-2024 gains were more muted, no classic blow-off, and 2025 closed red for BTC.

Key Uncertainties and What to Watch

Cycle status is debated. Some data fits the bear leg (declines into 2026); others show breakage from institutions dampening volatility and halving impact (absolute supply reduction is smaller now with ~19.7M+ BTC mined).

Policy impact: Pro-crypto moves are bullish but incremental so far. A true sound-money pivot would be seismic and likely bullish long-term for BTC as pristine collateral, but Congress/Fed inertia makes full "end" unlikely soon. Watch executive orders, reserves, and legislation (Clarity Act).

Correlations: BTC increasingly tracks macro (rates, dollar, liquidity) over pure halving.

Risks in both: Black swans, regulation surprises, or liquidity crunches can override. No guarantees.

Bottom line for followers: Prepare for a potentially choppy/bearish 2026 under cycle continuity (buy dips in strong projects, manage risk). A regime shift would favor holding core assets like BTC through volatility for asymmetric upside as "hard money."

Diversify, DCA where it fits your risk tolerance, and track on-chain metrics, ETF flows, miner health, and policy news. Neither scenario is certain as markets evolve.

This isn't financial advice; do your own research.

My stance is the same as it's always been. I favor a Super Cycle that comes with financial system decentralization.