Xavier

A4 Skyhawk Simp

OSINT Enjoyer

Geopolitics Enjoyer

[TheIntelFrog @TheIntelFrog]

If accurate, such an operation would have gone well beyond simply increasing the tempo of the current air campaign. According to CENTCOM, US forces have already struck more than 10,000 targets during months of operations against Iran. Despite that sustained campaign, Iran has retained the ability to launch ballistic missile and drone attacks against US forces, regional partners, and commercial shipping.

Producing a fundamentally different military outcome would likely have required weeks or months of sustained, high intensity, multi domain operations targeting not only missile launchers and air defenses, but also Iran's command & control network, hardened underground facilities, military industrial base, logistics infrastructure, and strategic military assets. In other words, the objective would likely have shifted from degrading Iranian capabilities to systematically dismantling them.

One notable observation, however, is that there has been no publicly visible surge in US combat aircraft, aerial refueling assets, ISR platforms, or logistics aircraft into the CENTCOM theater that would ordinarily be expected to sustain a significantly larger air campaign. Flight tracking has documented routine rotations and localized movements but not the type of sustained buildup typically associated with a major expansion of combat operations, similar to what was seen in the lead up to operations in the Middle East and Caribbean. Unless the initial phase of such a campaign was intended to be generated largely from CONUS based forces or relied on capabilities not readily observable, the visible force posture has not reflected the scale implied by the administration's statement.

The regional consequences also would likely have extended well beyond Iran itself. During the most recent escalation, following US strikes on bridges near Bandar Abbas, Iran expanded its retaliation by targeting infrastructure in Gulf states that supported operations against Iranian territory. A substantially larger US campaign would have increased the likelihood of sustained attacks against US bases, ports, airfields, energy infrastructure, and other strategic facilities across the Gulf.

That has important implications for regional air and missile defense. Even during the recent tit-for-tat attacks, the US and its partners expended significant numbers of Patriot and other interceptor missiles defending military installations and critical infrastructure. A more intense campaign would almost certainly have accelerated interceptor expenditure rates across the region, further straining available inventories.

From the available information, this appears to be more rhetoric than reality. It's unknown whether the conflicting messaging from both sides is intentional misdirection or if it actually reflects reality.

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

At this point if you still claim Israel is committing genocide in Gaza you are either stupid and ignorant or antisemitic.

The antisemitic version usually means applying a double standard on the definition of genocide and the laws of war just to delegitimize Israel’s existence or right to pursue legitimate goals in a war it did not start or/and dehumanize every IDF soldier as a monster.

I have tried to argue basic definitions. Genocide requires intent to destroy a national, ethnical, racial or religious group as such, in whole or in part. The evidence does not show that intent toward the people in Gaza. What it shows is the opposite. Israel has taken extraordinary steps, often at real cost and risk, to prevent civilian harm while fighting an enemy that hides among them, uses hospitals and schools as bases, and treats its own people as props in an evil grand political strategy of martyrdom to eliminate all jews on the planet.

In the middle of the fighting Israel has let in huge amounts of food, hundreds of thousands of tons, sometimes more than the world food specialists said was needed. Water lines from Israel have stayed open, three of them supplying tens of thousands of cubic meters a day. They have coordinated repairs, kept desalination plants running by sending fuel and even electricity to key ones, and allowed generators so water systems, hospitals and bakeries can keep working. Medical supplies and equipment have poured in by the tens of thousands of tons. Field hospitals coordinated. Patients have been evacuated for treatment outside. When polio showed up for the first time in decades Israel halted fighting every day and worked with WHO and UNICEF on a mass vaccination campaigns. Over a million doses given. That is not how you try to wipe out a people.

Then look at the misinformation machine. Almost every big claim about Israel deliberately targeting journalists or medical staff or children falls apart, and a lot of the time it falls apart because of what Hamas itself admits, sometimes before anyone even finishes basic fact checking. The “journalists” killed for example. Plenty of the names on those lists later show up in Hamas or Islamic Jihad martyr posts as actual operatives or commanders. Dual roles are common in Gaza’s information space. Same with medical workers. People mourned as nurses or doctors get claimed later by the terror groups as fighters. Hospitals have been used as command centers and weapons storage over and over. Hamas officials have even said it out loud at times. Manuals found on how to use the hospitals as Hamas military sites.

The casualty numbers and the “they are targeting children” stories. The Hamas health ministry figures get treated like gospel, yet their own underlying data and later admissions undercut every trending statistic. Combatants get left out or reclassified. Claims of IDF snipers or drones hunting kids usually fail basic reality of sci-fi sniper drones that don’t exist or injury patterns coming out of the same hospitals.

These stories do not need years of investigation to collapse. Often Hamas’s own words or the available evidence do the job within days or weeks. But the first maximalist version is what spreads and sticks and then gets used to accuse the whole country of Israel and its army of genocidal intent.

It is not illegal or wrong to target and destroy your enemy in a war, especially one that started with a massacre, held hostages, and fights from inside the civilian population it claims to protect. Gaza is an awful war with awful conditions, conditions shaped heavily by Hamas’s tactics. That does not make it genocide. The aid that kept flowing, the vaccination campaigns, the water and power facilitation, and the way the propaganda claims kept falling apart all point the other direction. If you ignore all of that and still yell genocide the explanations left are ignorance or a double standard aimed only at Israel. But this entire stupid campaign every war in history is a genocide.

If you actually want to engage in the debate of "intent" or actions in Gaza, see earlier writings:

"I’m a War Scholar. There Is No Genocide in Gaza," https://t.co/G7Iy9Ki3g5

"Israel Is Not Committing Genocide: Exposing the Distortion of Law and Truth," with @Ostrov_A
https://t.co/0RWFtOUd8H

"Israel's Aid to Gaza Is Historically Unprecedented," https://t.co/QMLuWDGDDs

[Kein Mensch Kein Tier @KampfmitKette]

When you’re on a date with 10/10 but the table behind you is arguing M1A2 SEPv3 vs Leopard 2A8

[Chris Cappy @Cappyarmy]

The army should Stop worrying about seizing troops phones and start worrying about seizing Hormuz .

[TheIntelFrog @TheIntelFrog]

So much for "the most transparent" Pentagon.

The Department of Defense is reportedly seeking broad new authority to withhold Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) from public release.

CUI is, by definition, unclassified.

Classification levels already exist to protect information that would harm national security if disclosed. If information genuinely warrants that level of protection, it should be classified accordingly.

[davey @jerseyh0mo]

Breathing in hefty lungfuls of smoke as I get explosive diarrhea from salad, the sky turns apocalyptic orange while oil companies drill in protected lands, screwworms are eating cattle alive and the president just paid $6 million for rape. And I’m also able to bet on all of it!

[Chuck Schumer @SenSchumer]

Just days after celebrating America’s 250th birthday, with Trump hosting speeches on National Park land, he shows what he really thinks of “America the Beautiful” by massively shrinking the size of two national parks.

For Trump, everything is for sale. America’s natural beauty and public lands mean nothing to him as long as his donors can profit from them.

[WTFGOP @doggintrump]

I hate this motherfucker

[Richard Hanania @RichardHanania]

Incredible WSJ reporting on how European leaders deal with Trump

-European leaders workshopped tweets to send Trump, debating which words to capitalize. They had to sound extra stupid to win over his trust.

-Trump didn't like the idea of sanctioning Russia, so they started calling sanctions "tariffs."

-When a tablet to call Trudeau didn't work, Trump threw it down like a baby.

-Trump took German leader Merz into the Oval Office, which he called the "Lewinsky room", and told him he could take away MAGA swag that he could sell for thousands of dollars.

You couldn't make this into a comedy. The straight reporting is funny enough. But really it's disgraceful and if you have any pride in your nation you should be ashamed of this.

[Widmerpool Appreciation Society @AtticumFloreat]

Great to hear that Egypt will be taking down its 8.7 mile long, 23 feet high, 60 feet below ground, border wall with Gaza. Fantastic news.

[la exocet 🚀 @pampaIIIpelis]

La fragata Libertad anoche, en la tormenta que azoto New York .
Habia llegado el dia anterior junto a otros buques miticos , como la Vepucci Italiana para participar del #Sail2026Parade

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

The United States has warned Warsaw that Russia is planning armed provocation in the coming months against NATO’s Eastern Front, possibly involving both Belarusian and Russian troops crossing into Polish territory, or drone and missile strikes against vital infrastructure in Poland, in an attempt to test NATO’s “resolve” in regards to support for Ukraine and defending Eastern Europe.

Sources affiliated with Poland’s Security Service have stated that a “hybrid attack in the border region” could take place, which Moscow may call an accident or a response to “hostilities” by NATO. The Polish media outlet Onet has said that the aim of Moscow’s possible assault, which could be launched in a matter of months, would be to provoke tensions with Europe, with hopes that the U.S. would not fire on Russian troops and force negotiations on Ukraine from NATO and Poland.

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

Polish security sources and those close to President Nawrocki claim to have been warned by the United States that Russia is planning "armed provocations" ranging from simulated air raids causing air defence activations to drone attacks on key infrastructure facilities and a ground incursion of Russian troops.
The goal of these actions would be to test NATO resolve and to create an additional dimension to negotiations with Ukraine and the United States, according to The Telegraph and Onet.

[The Green Dragon Tavern @greendragonhq]

The amount of insider trading Donald Trump is participating in is staggering. It’s actually almost unfathomable.

Since 2012 Nancy Pelosi has executed 213 trades on individual stocks with a total volume of $270 million dollars.

In Q1 of 2026 Donald Trump executed 3,500+ trades on individual stocks with a total volume of $1.5 billion dollars.

Donald Trump is on pace for 14,000 trades this year.

Nancy Pelosi has averaged 15 trades per year.

[sam @sam_d_1995]

it should probably be a bigger story that there was a normal bipartisan America 250 organization but then Trump decided to launch his own competing right wing grift version and ruined everything

[Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @DrewPavlou]

Dad, what was it like to be on Twitter the day Prigozhin marched on Moscow?

[Tom Henderson @_Tom_Henderson_]

How board meetings will be now when someone suggests to keep their games at $70

[Think Defence @thinkdefence]

The next war will not be won by drones and it will not be lost because of drones. Like any other technology, they will both be exploited and countered. Drone mania needs to calm down a bit.

[Armchair Admiral 🇬🇧 @ArmchairAdml]

I’d genuinely kick the US military out of Sigonella and Aviano if I were Meloni.

Shit is getting ridiculous with the way this idiot talks to people.

You’ll never hear him say it about Putin or Xi.

[Skipster @FarRightSkip]

You were watching PawPatrol on YouTube after curfew were you not?