Been posting that this ratio was bottoming. And with silver´s huge move lately, it broke out above blue line.
Next big silver move starts at blue backtest.
As been saying - these market opportunities are extremely rare, maybe once or twice in a lifetime, so make the most of it.
Silver: with 71 gone, the next test sits at 61–62
The weekly silver chart has turned uncomfortable. Having lost the 71 support last week, the most likely path is a return to the March lows, in the 61–62 zone on the July 2026 contract.
The current level, around 67, is intermediate support: it lines up with the 200-day moving average on the daily and with the base of the candle body at the late-March lows. It's a reference that deserves respect, but, being honest, it's unlikely to hold on the first attempt. The PMO is rolling over alongside it and still offers no relief.
Where does a floor gain weight? At 61–62. That's not just where the March lows sit; it's also where the 50-week moving average now runs. When a structural support and a long-term moving average converge, the level stops being just another line and becomes the litmus test of the correction.
That said, it pays to keep perspective. What's formed on the weekly is a large corrective flag inside the primary uptrend, the one that carried the metal from the 30 zone up to the highs. And flags get built exactly this way: with wide swings.
Large institutional positions aren't built quietly or in a straight line. They need volume, and volume shows up when there's volatility and wide ranges. That's why this kind of absorption tends to develop against the underlying trend, in the form of a correction.
And here's the piece that still has to fall into place: so far, the volume expansion hasn't happened. It's very possible that this final leg down, the one still left to complete toward 61–62, is exactly what triggers that pickup in volume. It would be the capitulation signature that typically marks the end of a correction, not its continuation.
My read: silver can still do some short-term damage, but the structure remains a correction within a bull market. If price reaches 61–62, expands volume, and reacts from there, it would fit the close of the correction I've been pointing to. Only a weekly close clearly below that zone would call the flag into question.
Trends build wealth. Judgment protects it.
— @BroadLuis | Miner Alpha Lab
#Silver #SilverPrice #PreciousMetals #Commodities #BullFlag #Ichimoku #PMO #MinerAlphaLab
The jobs report was a barnburner. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 versus expectations for 88,000, while prior months were revised higher by 93,000. Wage growth came in at roughly 0.3%. Yet the market sold off. In our view, the market is misreading the signal. It is assuming that stronger than expected employment and growth will cause a an acceleration in inflation. History would suggest otherwise. Productivity growth is running near 3%, while unit labor costs are hovering around 0.5%. Those are not the hallmarks of an inflationary boom. They are the hallmarks of healthy, productivity-driven growth that will lower inflation. Meanwhile, the yield curve continues to flatten despite a roughly 55% increase in oil prices year-over-year based on a three month moving average. In past cycles, an energy shock of this magnitude steepened the yield curve when the Federal Reserve was accommodating it. Instead, the bond market appears to be discounting something much more powerful: the deflationary impact of technological innovation, particularly artificial intelligence, which is beginning to increase productivity across broad swaths of the economy. If tensions with Iran ease and oil prices retreat, we believe inflation could move into negative territory before year-end. In our view, the Fed made a historic policy error when it raised rates aggressively into what was largely a supply-driven inflation shock in 2022. We do not believe the next generation of monetary policymakers will be eager to repeat that mistake. Notably, gold peaked on the day Kevin Warsh was appointed. The inflation trade may already be behind us. If our research is correct, the next phase of this cycle could be characterized by accelerating growth, declining inflation, falling interest rates, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. That combination would create a remarkably supportive backdrop for innovation-led equities and the technologies driving the next productivity boom. I discuss this framework in greater detail in this month’s episode of In The Know.
$Platinum is currently presenting one of the strongest long-term setups in the commodities space.
The metal has now entered its fourth consecutive year of structural supply deficit — projected to be short by 297,000 ounces this year — with over 60% of above-ground inventories already drained.
Sentiment is weak and the chart sits at a critical technical level. However, from a longer-term perspective, the fundamentals remain very strong.
Demand from AI infrastructure, hydrogen applications, and tightening emission standards continues to grow, while new mine supply stays flat.
This is an environment where many disciplined investors choose to accumulate positions through DCA.
Physics > Paper.
Bloomberg just delivered a beautifully savage reality check to anyone holding out hope for Chinese stocks.
By charting returns from May 31, 2021, which captures the exact cliff-edge of Beijing’s market peak, the data exposes a staggering 100 percentage point chasm between the two indices. Driven by a relentless tech and AI boom, the S&P 500 has surged nearly 80%. Meanwhile, China's flagship CSI 300 index has cratered by roughly -15%.
While Bloomberg's choice of timeline is dripping with dark humor, the lesson is dead serious. No amount of individual investor skill can save a portfolio when state-driven economic headwinds are pinned against a massive, secular tech wave.
#UnveiledChina #StockMarket #CSI300 #SP500 #Bloomberg #Investing #TechBoom #Geopolitics
Silver miners have underperformed the S&P 500 for 30 years.
That ratio just hit the same floor that launched a 4x move in the early 2000s.
The Ichimoku cloud is flipping green for the first time since 2010. Momentum is accelerating off lows not seen since the 2016 bear market bottom.
Wave structure shows a completed 5-wave decline from the 2011 peak — with a textbook abc correction finishing near current levels.
The setup isn't subtle.
When silver miners start outperforming broad equities, they tend to do it violently.
We may be at the start of that rotation.
BroadLuis | Miner Alpha Lab
Trends build wealth. Judgment protects it.
#SilverMiners #Silver #PreciousMetals #MarketRotation #Commodities #MiningStocks #TechnicalAnalysis
🚨 What happens to GOLD if new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cuts rates (and lets the long end run higher) — but real rates tank?
Warsh delivers short-end rate cuts. Long-end yields rise on fiscal/inflation expectations (steepening the curve). But crucially, real yields collapse — either because inflation expectations surge faster than nominals or because the entire rate complex eases aggressively.
⭕️This setup is extremely bullish for Gold. Here’s why:
1. Lower short-term rates crush gold’s opportunity cost Gold pays nothing. When Fed Funds, SOFR, and T-bill rates drop sharply, cash and short paper become far less attractive. Money flows into gold ETFs, futures, and physical. Classic easing tailwind on steroids.
2. Real rates tanking = Gold’s biggest green light Gold has one of the strongest negative correlations with real (inflation-adjusted) yields. When real rates fall hard, the discount rate on future gold cash flows effectively drops, and its appeal as an inflation/financial repression hedge skyrockets. This is the single most reliable driver of sustained gold rallies.
3. Steepening curve + higher long nominals still favors gold Rising long-end yields on fiscal dominance fears, sticky inflation, or term premium returning actually helps here. Treasuries lose safe-haven shine while gold benefits from the inflation component embedded in the steepener. Real rates falling overrides any nominal pressure.
4. Historical parallels are powerful
• Post-2008: Rates slashed, real yields collapsed amid QE → Gold exploded from ~$700 to over $1,900 by 2011.
• 2020-2021: Ultra-low/negative real rates in the reflation steepener → Gold hit all-time highs near $2,070 despite rising nominal long yields.
• Every major gold bull market in modern history (1970s, 2000s, 2020s) featured plunging real rates.
5. Dollar and broader tailwinds Aggressive short-rate cuts typically weaken the USD. Weaker dollar + falling real yields = rocket fuel for gold. Central banks continue stacking physical gold regardless.
Risks become much smaller in this case
Even a strong equity rally or growth optimism is usually overwhelmed when real rates are tanking. The main historical killer for gold (sharp real-yield spikes) is removed.
🎯Bottom line: A Warsh Fed cutting short rates, allowing curve steepening, while real rates tank would be a textbook gold super-bull setup. We’d likely see strong, sustained upside — potentially pushing gold toward $6,000+ and beyond if the dollar softens and geopolitical/fiscal risks stay elevated.
This is the environment where gold doesn’t just rally — it becomes a core portfolio asset again.
Not financial advice — pure macro mechanics + history.
#Gold #Fed #RealRates #Macro #Investing #KevinWarsh