We are no longer overbought so it is possible we can rally once more led by compute-ai and financials and even travel & leisure and manufacturing on the Middle East rebuild
Funniest BTC bull case of 2025: Iran’s terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz include “pay us in Bitcoin, not dollars.” Laugh now. Then think about it for a second.
In October of 2008 there were 11 trading days where SPY & SPX moved intraday 7%+. The highest was 12% and during these events the VIX was over 70. In several cases the VIX was at 80.
This is the kind of trading environment where you learn just how quickly price action can go against you & wipe you out in minutes. I did fairly well in 2008. I learned my lessons from the dot com bear market (March 2000-Oct 2002) where I lost nearly all my gains from June 1992-March 2000.
There are two fallacies that get stated on X quite often. The first is that the market will always rally if it’s OVERSOLD. That's not always the case when there is a lack of buyers. Keep in mind, $SPX and $SPY would drop another 30% from these levels of October 2008. The total drop from the October 10, 2007 high was 66%.
The second is that the market doesn’t bottom on Friday. That’s not the case either. The GFC bottomed on Friday, March 6, 2009. That was the lowest $SPX & $SPY price (intraday). Only the closing low was lower on March 9, 2009.
History is only a guide but one thing is certain, when the big fish go “risk off” retail cannot pull up all the slack. Be nimble & avoid option trading with a VIX this elevated. You don’t have to take my advice but I hope you do.
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