liloalberty

Financial Markets | XAUUSD Trader | watch Macroeconomics analysis on my page

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

🇺🇸 US PPI Update

• Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (vs 0.3%)
• PPI m/m: -0.3% (vs 0.0%)

Producer inflation cooled more than expected, suggesting businesses are facing less cost pressure. Combined with softer CPI and easing labour market data, the disinflation trend remains intact. 📉🇺🇸

The economy is still growing, but inflation is cooling and the pace of growth is slowing. Markets will now watch whether this trend continues over several months before fully pricing a more dovish Fed.

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

🇺🇸 US CPI Update

• Core CPI m/m: 0.0% (vs 0.2%)
• Core CPI y/y: 2.6% (vs 2.8%)
• CPI m/m: -0.4% (vs -0.1%)
• CPI y/y: 3.5% (vs 3.8%)

Inflation cooled much more than expected, reinforcing the recent trend of easing price pressures. Combined with softer labour market data, markets may increasingly price a less restrictive Fed if this momentum continues.

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

@TotalWorldApps We have got CPI coming up next week and the possibility of the rate being hiked is 30% if you look at the fed watch tool but it could change if inflation comes in weaker than expected.

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

FOMC Minutes

The Fed is worried inflation could stay too high for too long. They kept rates unchanged, but they made it clear they are willing to keep policy restrictive and even consider another hike if inflation doesn’t continue improving.

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

Unemployment claims a leading indicator and previous data showing how the US 🇺🇸 economy is doing; we look at the momentum of the data and the narrative will change if labor market is deteriorating or slowing.

Labour Market: 🟡 Cooling

ADP 🔴 Weak
NFP 🔴 Weak
Unemployment 🟢 Healthy (4.2%)
Claims 🟢 Low layoffs (215K)
JOLTS 🟢 Hiring still solid
Wages 🟡 Stable (0.3%)

Overall:
Hiring is slowing, but companies are not laying off workers.

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

@shaun543351851 Again!!!!!

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

@shaun543351851 Will melt

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

@shaun543351851 😭😂 Time will tell. I’m more interested in what the data says than who’s in the chair. If inflation stays sticky, the Fed has said tighter policy remains on the table. Walsh isn’t Trump’s puppet 🗣️🗣️

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

🇺🇸 US jobs update:

• NFP: 57K vs 114K expected 📉
• Unemployment: 4.2% (better than expected) ✅
• Claims: 215K (layoffs remain low)
• Wage growth: 0.3% (unchanged)

Hiring slowed sharply, but the labor market hasn’t cracked. This points to a cooling economy not a collapsing one. If softer employment persists alongside easing inflation, expectations for Fed rate cuts could continue to build. 📊

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

🇺🇸 US macro update:
•ADP Jobs: 98K vs 118K expected 📉
• ISM Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 (still > 50 = expansion) 🏭
• ISM Prices: 73.0 (cost pressures easing but still elevated)

The labor market cooled slightly, but manufacturing continues to expand. Inflation pressures are easing gradually, though they’re still above levels consistent with the Fed’s 2% target. Overall, the economy remains resilient, with only modest signs of slowing.

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

US macro remains resilient.

Consumer Confidence: 91.2 (from 90.6, below 94.4 forecast)
JOLTS: 7.59M vs 7.28M expected

Consumers are still cautious, but businesses continue hiring. A resilient labor market supports higher yields, a firmer USD and keeps pressure on the Fed to delay aggressive rate cuts. Gold faces a macro headwind if this trend continues. 📊🇺🇸

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

Inflation will spike back stronger and looking at the momentum this isn’t from only consumers spending endlessly(borrowing and lending). The war and damage has contributed a lot. From 2.4% in both January and February to 3.3% in march, 3.8% April and may 4.2% that’s something huge making inflation grow rapidly. What they could do is hold rates and not to hit recession or no landing where everything is going skyrocketing. To allow growth and labor market to be moderate they need to see momentum on the inflation like 4.2%, 3.8%, 2.3%, 1.5% and that’s where the dual mandate is fulfilled and inflation needs to keep being lower to support rates cut.

[Merlijn The Trader @MerlijnTrader]

🚨 THE FED CAN'T CUT NOW EVEN IF IT WANTED TO

PCE inflation just spiked to 4.1%. Core to 3.4%.
Both multi-year highs.

Normally the Fed cuts when growth slows.
But GDP beat expectations at 2.1%, and jobs are strengthening.

Hot economy. Hot inflation. No room to ease.

Hikes are back on the table. Cuts are gone...

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

🇺🇸 US macro remains resilient.
GDP: 2.1% vs 1.6% ✅
Core PCE: 0.3% (in line) 📈
GDP Price Index: 3.6% vs 3.5% 🔥
Jobless Claims: 215K vs 225K 💼

Strong growth + healthy labor market + sticky inflation = Fed can stay patient.

Macro remains supportive for the USD and a headwind for gold unless the narrative changes. 📊📉

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

🇺🇸 Flash PMI remains in expansion.

Manufacturing: 55.7 🔥
Services: 51.3 ✅

Economy continues to show resilience. Combined with strong labor data, stable claims and a less dovish Fed, the case for aggressive rate cuts keeps weakening.

Bullish USD 📈
Bullish 2Y 📈
Bearish Gold 📉

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

Philly Fed beat expectations and jobless claims remained stable. Growth is holding up, labour remains resilient, and the Fed has little reason to rush rate cuts. Bullish USD, supportive of higher 2Y yields, headwind for gold.

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

Strong retail sales, sticky inflation and a more hawkish SEP are pushing markets toward a higher-for-longer rate outlook. Unless growth weakens materially, the path of least resistance for gold remains lower.

FedWatch + Dot Plot.

One Month Ago

No change = 94.6%
Hike = 4.2%

Today

No change = 70.1%
Hike = 29.9%

The probability of a hike has exploded from 4% to 30%.

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

The economy is slowing, but not slowing fast enough for the Fed to aggressively cut rates. That’s the problem gold faces right now. 😈📉

[liloalberty @YLiloalbert]

I love Kevin Warsh soo genuine, Fed Jerome Powell was complicated to predict 😂❤️