Two economists just published a mathematical proof that AI will destroy the economy.
Not might. Not could. Will — if nothing changes.
The paper is called "The AI Layoff Trap." Published March 2, 2026. Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Boston University. Peer reviewed. Mathematically modeled.
The conclusion is one sentence.
"At the limit, firms automate their way to boundless productivity and zero demand."
An economy that produces everything. And sells it to nobody.
Here is how you get there.
A company fires 500 workers and replaces them with AI. A competitor fires 700 to keep up. Another fires 1,000. Every company is behaving rationally. Every company is following the incentives correctly. And every company is building a trap for itself.
Because the workers who were fired were also customers.
When they lose their jobs faster than the economy can absorb them, they stop spending. Consumer demand falls. Companies respond by cutting costs — which means automating more workers — which means less spending — which means more falling demand — which means more automation.
The loop has no natural exit.
The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income. Capital income taxes. Worker equity participation. Upskilling programs. Corporate coordination agreements.
Every single one failed in the model.
The only intervention that worked: a Pigouvian automation tax — a per-task levy charged every time a company replaces a human with AI, forcing them to price in the demand they are destroying before they pull the trigger.
No government has implemented this. No major economy is seriously discussing it.
Meanwhile the numbers are already tracking the curve. 100,000 tech workers laid off in 2025. 92,000 more in the first months of 2026. Jack Dorsey fired half of Block's workforce and said publicly: "Within the next year, the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion."
Nobody is doing anything wrong. Companies are following their incentives perfectly. That is exactly the problem.
Rational behavior. At scale. Simultaneously. With no mechanism to stop it.
Two economists built the math. The math leads to one place.
Source: Falk & Tsoukalas · Wharton School + Boston University ·
In Toronto for COMPASS’25! @acmcompass
Great first day with keynote session, paper presentations and much networking. Tonnes of excellent work on AI for sustainability, civic engagement and participatory design.
Looking forward to Day 2.
#compass2025#computinginplace
Man. Don’t know how to explain it other than shock. Words cannot express the pain of this letdown. The frustration is unfathomable. I’ve worked my whole life to get to this moment and this is how it ends? Makes no sense.
Now that I’ve gotten surgery, I wish I could count the number of times people will tell me I’m going to “come back stronger”. What a cliche lol, this shit sucks. My foot feels like dead weight fam. But what’s hurting most I think is my mind. Feel like I’m rambling, but I know this is something I’ll look back on when I’m through this, as something I’m proud I fought through. It feels good to let this shit out without y’all seeing the kid ugly cry.
At 25, I’ve already learned that God never gives us more than we can handle. I know I’ll come out on the other side of this a better man and a better player. And honestly, right now, torn Achilles and all, I don’t regret it. I’d do it again, and again after that, to fight for this city and my brothers. For the chance to do something special.
Indy, I’m sorry. If any fan base doesn’t deserve this, it’s y’all. But together we are going to fight like hell to get back to this very spot, and get over this hurdle. I don’t doubt for a second that y’all have my back, and I hope you guys know that I have yours. I think Kobe said it best when in this same situation. “There are far greater issues/challenges in the world then a torn achilles. Stop feeling sorry for yourself, find the silver lining and get to work with the same belief, same drive and same conviction as ever.” And that’s exactly right. I will do everything in my power to get back right.
My journey to get to where I am today wasn’t by happenstance, I’ve pushed myself every day to be great. And I will continue to do just that. The most important part of this all, is that I’m grateful. I’m grateful for every single experience that’s led me here. I’m grateful for all the love from the hoop world. I don’t “have to” go through this, I get to go through this. I’m grateful for the road that lies ahead. Watch how I come back from this. So, give me some time, I’ll dust myself off and get right back to being the best version of Tyrese Haliburton.
-0
Proverbs 3:5-6 “Trust in the Lord with all your heart, and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways acknowledge Him, and He will make your paths straight."
First time being in LATAM.
Attended the #SubsistenceMarketplace Conference in Puebla, Mexico, learning from subsistence sellers, social entrepreneurs, and community cooperatives.
Thank you #Mexico for a wonderful immersive learning experience! 🇲🇽
Thank you @HorizonCDT for the post.
Presenting our work on the topic of ‘Market Access as Food Entitlements’ at the recent #FutureFoodSymposium
Many take aways and a lot more work to be done in the fields of food security, food waste and sustainable food systema.
#FFS25
There is still time to register for the launch of our #InnoLab5 White Papers for Universities on Navigating AI Innovation Ecosystems on 19 February 2025 at 16:00-17:30 SGT / 09:00-10:30 CET! Follow the QR code below:
🚨 Paper alert 🚨
Forecasting energy just got easier! We introduce a new automated feature engineering algorithm tailored for energy forecasting, reducing reliance on domain experts #AI#ML#AutoML
https://t.co/ssJUimtsIp
@HorizonCDT @HorizonDER @EPSRC
✨Join the Official Launch of the ASEFInnoLab5 Publication on 28 Nov at 16:00 SGT / 09:00 CET via Zoom! ✨
Explore this future with us as we introduce you to this publication, featuring 16 visionary papers created by our diverse online cohort from all over #Asia and #Europe.
Last Friday, we celebrated the closing of our five-day #ASEFInnoLab5 onsite event in Shanghai, full of collaboration and forward-thinking discussions on AI! 🚀We also proudly welcomed our cohort into the Asia-Europe for Artificial Intelligence (AE4AI) Network 🎊
🚨 New Publication Alert! 🚨
1️⃣ Tackling rising energy 🔋 costs 💰 and sustainability! Our study presents a robust machine learning pipeline that forecasts electricity use, temperature, and humidity, optimising operations to save energy. #EnergyEfficiency#AI#ML@HorizonCDT
Really honoured to invited back to #Shanghai for the #ASEFInnoLab5, facilitating the white paper drafting on #AI4Sustainable Development.
Looking forward to how this week will unfold, working with researchers, engineers and senior managers of universities from Asia and Europe.
We kicked off the first day of the ASEFInnoLab5 Onsite Event! 🚀
Today’s focus was on AI Governance in Asia and Europe with engaging keynotes, Q&As, and workshops from our amazing lineup of speakers.
Stay tuned for the updates from the days ahead!✨
I am excited to share 2 papers published at #PDC24 that explores the reimagining of digital marketplaces with rural micro-entrepreneurs, amplifying their perspectives in moving towards a more equitable, inclusive and, as Escobar termed, pluriversal empowerment.
Being part of the PDC24 organising committee the past 2 years, supporting the planning and shaping of the event, both in & out of Sibu has been truly rewarding. What a joy it is to see how it all came together at the end.
Thank you PDC24 team for this unforgettable experience!