really great concise summary of what to expect in AI trade
open source reaching 30% of usage and the token pricing pressure it will create will be really interesting to watch in H2
Welcome to the second half of the year.
The actions of hyperscalers in terms of their capital commitments will be key as the year proceeds, expect an uptick across the board, the demand is real.
The flip side - the funding sources will need to be from the capital markets. The largest companies will flip to negative cash flow except for one or two.
Hyperscalers have balance sheet capacity to do so (for 1-3 years), however new Frontier labs will need to go public, not sure there's more private market capital available to support their Capex needs. Of course, there's the chip guys, NVIDIA is at the party, will MU join the investment party to keep spending going?
We still need visibility for when AI revenues will start to fund much of this cash need.
Expect more advertising plays from LLMs, Token prices have to decline to drive Enterprise adoption. Expect LLMs to chase more vertical profit pools, legal, life science, expecting physical AI companies. Pure models will continue to see arbitrage with open source touching 30% usage, depth will create a better moat, breadth will commoditize. It's not a demand problem - "it's a monetization problem". Silicon valley has always built product with intensity and the market has funded adoption years.
This time it might just be too big and the market may not have capacity to fund everyone. "Darwinian moment for AI providers?"
If you are a founder, or a CEO - don't be distracted, focus on your product, how it gets better with AI. Eventually product and customer adoption will bring us to the other side, but expect a bit of a wild ride. We are still early in many PMF categories. Speed could create waste, but waiting and watching could leave us behind.
To the Americans:
I've travelled all over the world. I've familiarized myself with many places, and met many people. And I'm a Canadian, although I’m privileged to reside once again in the States.
And here's something I've noticed, and it’s a key element of America's continuing greatness:
You bloody Americans value success, and you believe in its existence.
This is something that doesn't really happen anywhere else in the world. Even in other free democracies—the United Kingdom; Finland, Sweden, and Norway; Australia, New Zealand and Canada; Germany, France, and the Netherlands (great countries all)—a counterproductive cynicism too often reigns.
Success is equated with exploitation.
Ambition is looked upon with contempt.
This happens sometimes in the United States too—particularly among the miserable progressives, who confuse their resentment, ingratitude and unearned skepticism with wisdom.
But in your great country, by and large, striving is admired and success celebrated.
This means that more people strive and succeed in the US than anywhere else. And it's increasingly obvious. You remain stunningly more innovative and productive than any people anywhere else on the planet.
And so I say, as all should who are fortunate enough to live in the western world, let alone America:
Thank God for the United States.
Thank God for the wisdom of its founders.
Thank God for its faith in the free market and in the natural rights of man.
Happy birthday, you damn Yankees and Southerners.
Long may your admirable country dominate the world.
Long may your freedom and hope provide an example to those suffering everywhere at the hands of their malevolent states.
May your two and a half centuries of unparallelled success be just the beginning.
Your country is the light of the world, and the city on the hill.
Thank God for the USA.
Happy 250th.
Dr. Jordan B. Peterson
🚨 BREAKING: A @FreeBeacon investigation reveals Rep. Ro Khanna—who rails against the ultra-rich who "hoard wealth"—lives in a $6M D.C. mansion with a four-story elevator while his family's $340M+ fortune sits in the exact trusts, hedge funds, and LLCs he condemns.
Those trusts made 4,100+ stock trades worth ~$53M in 2025—even as Khanna leads the push to BAN members of Congress from trading stocks—while he claims "zero knowledge" of the trades.
His kids (under 10) hold stakes in three private golf clubs, a $65B wealth firm, and a distressed-debt hedge fund—the same vehicles he attacks—while his wife drives a $190K Range Rover.
Bottom line: Khanna's fortune is built and shielded exactly the way he says the rich shouldn't do it.
https://t.co/zFjDVlKSSZ
@Nick_Davidov imo startups should optimize for mission alignment in candidates (always have, no?) rather than paycheck harvesters. The “id stay in the lab and make mils” crowed always comes post series b when mission is clear and product is working.
The mass construction of new datacenters and power across the US reminds me of the mass buildout of the Internet. Whenever something like this happens, something new becomes true that previously everyone concluded wasn’t possible and have written off as a good idea.
the lack of emdashes, triple lists, and not-x-but-y's in the great work of history seems to be pretty strong evidance that time is in fact a one way arrow and there's no going back. time travel decisively ruled out.
interestingly, kimi 2.6 and glm 5.2 also happen to be the fastest model across the top oss models, at least on @baseten (added anthropic for comparison)
"isn't seattle tech just a bunch of AWS and MSFT employees?"
well, no. aside from having 25% of the AI engineers in the US, and the second largest pool of dev talent in the country, seattle is home to the engineering hq2's of the world's most important tech leaders.
we counted 55 seattle-based c suite execs from @AnthropicAI and @OpenAI to @nvidia and @Cisco ; from @PaloAltoNtwks to @CrowdStrike; from @Shopify to @stripe .
see the latest from @Natebek below.