Alter Ego

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

5 GitHub Repos That Cover 90% of Building Your Own Polymarket Trading Bot

Each of them closes a major piece of the stack - from market discovery to execution, logging, and performance analysis

Instead of building everything from scratch, you can take these five repos and significantly speed up your bot development

1. Trade execution - Polymarket/py-clob-client

The official Python SDK from Polymarket itself.CLOB API connection, order placement, order book fetching, WebSocket subscriptions - all in one package

Installs with a single command: pip install py-clob-client

This is the foundation of any bot - there's no getting around it

GitHub: https://t.co/EnMpyo922v

2. Market discovery and all APIs in one -HuakunShen/polymarket-kit

A fully typed SDK that covers all three Polymarket APIs at once.

GammaSDK - find markets, filter by volume, category, closing date. No auth required.DataSDK - pull positions and trade history for any wallet

WebSocketClient - subscribe to live order book updates

Works in both TypeScript and Python, OpenAPI schema included

Instead of three separate clients - one package that covers everything except trade execution

GitHub: https://t.co/yIMcP7kYFM

3. Trading logic - Polymarket/agents

The official repo with trading agent examples from the Polymarket team.

Shows how to properly connect market discovery, data analysis, and trade execution into a single workflow.

Use it as an architectural template - plug in your own strategy where the default one sits.

The best starting point if you want to build from scratch rather than copy someone else's bot.

GitHub: https://t.co/xP4IqxkgMQ

4. Position monitoring - warproxxx/poly_data

A data pipeline that collects the full trade and position history from Polymarket

Connect it to your bot to log every trade in a structured format

A ready-made data snapshot is available to download immediately - no need to wait for your own history to accumulate

Ideal for analyzing bot performance and finding patterns through AI

GitHub: https://t.co/vo52jpWoBP

5. Analytics — leolopez007/polymarket-trade-tracker

A web tool for analyzing trades from any Polymarket wallet

Paste your bot's address - get a full breakdown: PnL, win rate, Maker/Taker roles, cumulative PnL over time

Export everything to JSON - feed it to AI and let it find the weak spots in your strategy

Use it after every week of trading to understand what's working and what isn't

GitHub: https://t.co/9x6lcSZPH1

Here's how it all connects:

• polymarket-kit finds the market
• py-clob-client executes the trade
• agents holds it all together
• poly_data logs the history
• trade-tracker analyzes the result.

Five repos - the full cycle of a trading bot

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

How to build a crypto UP/DOWN trading bot for Polymarket using Predictr

@predictr_trade just launched Custom Bot - now anyone can fully automate trading on Polymarket crypto markets

Here's how it works and how to set up your bot in a few minutes:

1. Go to [https://t.co/MVzcDkDtYE]
2. Click on Custom Bots button
3. Pick any market and settings you wanna use

What the bot does:
> Scans Polymarket crypto UP/DOWN markets 24/7
> The moment your edge conditions are met - it enters a position automatically
> Winning positions are redeemed automatically.
> You configure it once - the bot runs without you.

What you can configure:

> Open and Close - the entry window in seconds before market resolution
> The smaller the window - the sharper the signal, but fewer chances to enter
> Bet size - how much USDC to spend per trade. Minimum $1
> Risk preset - Conservative (only when historical edge is clear), Balanced (default), Aggressive (more trades, lower entry bar)
> Exit mode - Hold to resolution (wait for $1/share payout) or TP/SL (sell on the CLOB when price hits your target, freeing up capital earlier)

Right now, this is the simplest ready-made solution for creating your own trading bot

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

How to build a self-learning Polymarket BTC UP/DOWN trading bot using Hermes Agent (FULL GUIDE)

No coding experience required. Here's the full setup in 7 steps

Hermes is an open-source autonomous agent by NousResearch - an AI lab backed by $70M from Paradigm

The key difference from other agents: Hermes doesn't just execute instructions - it accumulates knowledge after every trade and builds its own strategy over time. The longer it runs, the smarter it gets

Step 1. Install Hermes via Atomic

> Go to https://t.co/0xdjCNxmuI - this is the easiest way to run Hermes without touching CLI

> Download the app or choose "Run in Cloud" if you don't want a local setup

> Connect your model API - Claude, OpenAI Codex, or free local models like Gemma or Qwen

> Connect your Telegram bot via the Skills tab for real-time notifications on every trade

Step 2. Feed it a trading repo

> Instead of building logic from scratch - find a GitHub repo with ready-built trading logic and give it to Hermes

> Best repos for Polymarket crypto UP/DOWN markets right now:

• JLowo/gengar_polymarket_bot - Quarter-Kelly sizing, Brownian motion probability model, circuit breaker, Telegram

• joicodev/polymarket-bot - Black-Scholes, EWMA volatility, cleanest math

• djienne/Polymarket-bot - two strategies: Gabagool arb and Smart Ape momentum, web dashboard

> Pick one and send Hermes the repo link with your requirements

Step 3. Key prompt to send Hermes

> Tell it to build the logic from the repo, migrate to Polymarket CLOB v2, use Quarter-Kelly for position sizing, keep DRY_RUN=true by default, and add tests before going live

Step 4. Create a trading wallet

> Ask Hermes to create a wallet it will manage independently

> Confirm you understand the risks

> Deposit funds only after DRY_RUN testing is complete

Step 5. Migrate to CLOB v2

> Send Hermes the executor update prompt to migrate from legacy py_clob_client to py_clob_client_v2

> This is critical - the old client doesn't support current Polymarket infrastructure

Key settings: host=https://t.co/P5xcIBWuSm, chain_id=POLYGON, use_server_time=True, retry_on_error=True

Step 6. Configure your .env file

> Hermes will set up all environment variables: PRIVATE_KEY, SAFE_ADDRESS, MIN_EDGE, MIN_BET, MAX_BET, BANKROLL, DRY_RUN

Never expose private keys in chat or logs - Hermes has built-in safety skills for this

Step 7. Run tests before going live

> Ask Hermes to run pytest and verify: Kelly sizing, fee calculation, probability estimation, order sizing, executor initialization

Green tests = ready to trade

Start with $1–$2 trades. Let Hermes observe the results, build its own patterns, and adapt

The self-learning loop does the heavy lifting - your job is to let it run

Like/RT/Bookmark if this was helpful!

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

$20/day farming LP rewards on Polymarket with zero risk

Just keep orders in the order book and collect rewards

To avoid risk, simply hedge both sides

Here's how it works step by step:

1. Find a market

> Profile → Rewards → filter by Highest Rewards
> Daily rewards 30–150+ USDC
> 1–2 green lines (low competition)
> Time to resolution: under 1 week
> Best topics in my experience: Iran, Middle East, geopolitics

2. Opening orders

The safest way to open orders is a natural hedge. You're on both sides simultaneously, so even if the market moves, you're covered.

Example (Yes price = 60¢):

> Buy Yes at 58¢
> Buy No at 42¢

Key rule: both orders must be within ±2–4¢ of the midpoint. If the spread is wider - no rewards will be credited.

3. Position management

> Keep orders for 12–24 hours, time in the book = more rewards
> Update every 8–12 hours
> Rewards dropped, move to another market
> Never leave overnight without monitoring
> Order got filled, close it immediately or hedge

Size: 100–200 shares per side (~$50–100 total)

$50 in the book on a decent market = $5–20/day in rewards

Multiple markets simultaneously = $20–50/day

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

A sports trading bot made +$614k PNL on Polymarket

Pure speed advantage, nothing else matters in live trading

This bot sees results 20-30 seconds before the market updates

Strategy mechanics:
→ Connects to premium data feeds
→ Sees goals/touchdowns/finals instantly
→ Buys the winning side at old odds
→ Market catches up when the bot already exited

Profile: https://t.co/HBA0IVaWNO

Top winning examples:

$26,547 → $44,822 (+68%)
$12,351 → $25,648 (+107%)
$9,942 → $22,079 (+122%)

While you're reading the news, this bot already closed the position

In live sports, speed beats analysis

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

+$100/day with "always buy NO" strategy on Polymarket

80.6% of markets resolve in favor of NO

Just pick markets where YES probability is overpriced due to hype and news noise

Where this works best:

1. Geopolitics

→ 85–95% of markets = NO
→ YES spikes on news, then drops
→ Buying NO at hype peak = 3–10× within weeks

2. Fantasy markets (Jesus returns 2026)

→ NO at 96–99¢
→ 2–4% annual return almost risk-free

3. FDV ladders

→ Upper brackets overpriced
→ NO on fat tails = 2–8× over months
→ Token not launched until event resolves = automatically accepted as NO

4. Crypto price targets (BTC >$200k by year end)

→ In sideways markets NO wins 70–90%

How to make $100/day?
→ 15–30 positions at $300–800 each
→ Average ROI 7–12%
→ 20–40 closed markets/month = $3k–5k profit (≈$100–170/day)

This isn't about predicting the future

This is about exploiting crowd behavioral errors: FOMO on YES + fear of boredom on NO

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

Top 5 Polymarket traders with 100% win rate

I spent 1 day scanning the leaderboard to find wallets that literally never lose.

Their combined PnL > $1,000,000 and they keep surgically dismantling the market

1. 033033033

Overall PNL: $143, 797
Predictions: 467
Win rate: 99,7%
Profile: https://t.co/aoWFhdm2nU

2. Sharky 6999

Overall PNL: $589,540
Predictions: 21,808
Win rate: 99,3%
Profile: https://t.co/a2wIMcIKz0

3. Anon-fake

Overall PNL: $110,818
Predictions: 6,171
Win rate: 99%
Profile: https://t.co/1ZaS6BFKxn

4. FilthyBera

Overall PNL: $163,295
Predictions: 44
Win rate: 100%
Profile: https://t.co/rKZaKr9le7

5. Vari

Overall PNL: $103,443
Predictions: 44
Win rate: 100%
Profile: https://t.co/HPFhyCneHx

Best analysts alive right now or they know events before they happen

The market always gives an edge to those willing to dig deeper than everyone else

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

How this Polymarket trader turned $1 into $100,000?

He doesn’t use bots.
He isn’t an insider.

But while others are losing, he is methodically printing money in niche markets.

His profile: https://t.co/wDFOAlK8OM

I spent all day analyzing his trades. Here is his playbook:

1. Niche Selection

Forget the noise. Success lies in low-liq markets where the "crowd" is most likely to be wrong:

> Global Elections (Canada, Korea, Lebanon), where hard data and polls beat market emotions.

> Geopolitics (24h short-term plays), reacting to real-time facts, not rumors.

2. Entry Mathematics

> High-risk ($5–$500): Betting on events with 0.2–10% probability. One "Moonshot" win covers dozens of tiny losses.

> Low-risk ($1000+): Stable positions with 46–72% probability to compound the bankroll (30-95% ROI).

3. Finding the "Edge"

His secret is finding undervaluation via the Kelly Criterion.

> If your calculated probability is 20% but the market offers 9% - that’s your edge. Use it.

> When the crowd panic-buys "Yes" at 99¢, look for a valid reason to buy "No" for pennies.

4. Capital Management

> Hedging: Betting on alternative outcomes in related markets to neutralize news-driven volatility.

> Yield Farming: Buying equal amounts of "Yes" and "No" to hold the position and collect a passive 4% APY.

Why can't you do the same? All it takes is $1 and iron discipline.

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

How to secure a 22% ROI in 18 days on Polymarket with minimal risk?

I’ve identified a major inefficiency in the "Best AI of February" market.

The main contenders are Anthropic (Claude) at 82¢ and Google (Gemini) at 18¢.

The winner is determined by the LMSYS Chatbot Arena year-end standings.

Currently, Claude 4.6 leads Gemini 3 Pro by 23 points.

This is a significant gap that is almost impossible to close for several reasons:

1. Mathematical Inertia (Chess Elo): Google (Gemini) already has over 34,000 votes. In the Elo system, this is a "heavy" rating, the more games played, the fewer points each new win yields. Claude has only ~3,000 votes, its rating is "light," making it much easier to maintain the lead given the current gap.

2. The Time Factor: For Anthropic to be dethroned, a competitor would not only need to release a new model tomorrow but also push it through thousands of "blind" tests before Feb 28. Mathematically, this is an impossible sprint.

3. The Alphabetical Hedge: In the event of a tie in points, the winner is decided by alphabetical order. Anthropic takes the top spot. This is a crucial insurance policy for a tight race.

Market: https://t.co/k27H8tq5w3

A 23-point gap in Elo ratings, given the difference in "vote weight," is a massive moat.

Betting on Anthropic at 82¢ looks less like a gamble and more like a high-probability investment.

[Alter Ego @YieldA1ter]

Based on this data, $NVDA looks really strong. I think it will remain in first place in terms of market capitalization over the next couple of months

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

350% APY on Polymarket with Minimal Risk?

The prediction markets of the largest companies of the month are the simplest and most predictable.

Right now, betting on NVIDIA to hold the #1 spot is a massive opportunity:

- February: 84¢ (ROI ~19%)
- March: 76¢ (ROI ~31%)

Why this is a "Smart Money" play:

- $400B Moat: Rivals like Apple or Microsoft need a miracle to bridge a $400B market cap gap in just a few days. NVIDIA's lead is solid.

- Market Monopoly: NVIDIA controls up to 90% of the AI accelerator market. The entire AI hype cycle is literally their revenue stream.

- $650B Capex: Big Tech is projected to spend $650B on AI infrastructure. Most of those checks are being signed to NVIDIA.

- Next-Gen Hardware: Orders for more energy-efficient chips are already hitting the hundreds of billions.

Current Market Cap Titans (Feb 2026):

$NVDA — $4.51T
$AAPL — $4.09T
$GOOGL — $3.91T
$MSFT — $2.98T

For this to fail, AI would have to officially "die" overnight. Personally, I’d bet on the Second Coming of Christ before I’d bet against NVIDIA right now.

Market: https://t.co/ur8hsA5j0i

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals

The main contenders for victory are Norway[73%], USA[19%], Germany[4%]

Polymarket evaluates Germany's victory at only 4%, which is a strong undervaluation

The real probability is approximately 25-30%

Several arguments in favor of this:

1. Germany is a historically strong contender, which took second place in 2018 and 2022

2. The market is dominated by American bettors, who traditionally bet on their own country, not reflecting the real probability

3. Starting from February 8, the finals in luge and skeleton begin, where Germany is the absolute favorite, in 2022 the Germans took 9 gold medals in these disciplines. If a similar success repeats, it could strongly change the assessment in the near future

Market: https://t.co/HJVdhXMtdC

This looks like an opportunity for easy 5-6x, the main thing is to manage risks

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

This trader on Polymarket earned more than $5,000 trading on weather markets

He doesn't use bots, doesn't have a high win rate, but his deposit continues to grow steadily

Over 1,500 bets on the weather, the best of which earned him $2,000 from a $5 bet

His trading strategy:

- Looks for undervalued events [1¢-40¢]
- Enters positions with small amounts [$0.5-$5]
- Increases volume when he becomes more confident

His profile:

https://t.co/ZcPbxsb0om

The most successful bets:

$5.40 -> $2,110.00 (+38,993.04%)
$4.90 -> $301.60 (+6,055.1%)
$7.67 -> $278.87 (+3,536.18%)

Clear strategy + risk management = stable profit

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

How Polymarket traders earn $10k from a $5 bet

Their secret is the strategy of betting on low probability [0.1¢-5¢], where the downside is limited, but the profit potential is incredibly high

You don't need to conduct a long analysis, basic knowledge of mathematics is enough

How to start doing the same:

1. Select long-term events with low probability 0.1¢-5¢
2. Enter a position only 1% of your deposit
3. Look for where the market is wrong:

- the crowd is too confident (>90% on one outcome)
- low trading volume (<$100k volume) → the price does not reflect reality

Here are examples of traders who use this strategy:

https://t.co/2lPD2pyGJj
https://t.co/C2n3H9OYqn
https://t.co/RxYtHbVhJY

Here you don't need to chase a high win rate, a few successful trades give 10-100x

[Alter Ego @YieldA1ter]

@AlterEgo_eth thanks for info

[Alter Ego @AlterEgo_eth]

This is my first tweet!

I plan to actively post on X, share my thoughts and ideas, and analyze everything that is happening in the world of cryptocurrency.

Will return to this post in a year to see what has been achieved.

Btw, feel free to share your tips for growing on X in the comments.

[Alter Ego @YieldA1ter]

@oceanprotocol cool news

[Alter Ego @YieldA1ter]

@hak_olof @Antarctic_Ex alpha is here, thanks for info buddy🔥

[Alter Ego @YieldA1ter]

@hak_olof @Cyber_Warriorr @KaitoAI lfg

[Alter Ego @YieldA1ter]

@hak_olof thanks for guide, mate

[Alter Ego @YieldA1ter]

@hak_olof thanks for info, buddy