yorgos

[yorgos @yorgos]

In the age of marathon campaigns, extreme polarization and entrenchment, events are statistical noise and the race will always gravitate back to a baseline set months before the election. Let's see if a change at the top of the ticket can hit escape velocity.

[yorgos @yorgos]

@nan0nymous Slack με βλέπω, keep you posted! ;)

[yorgos @yorgos]

Πώς μας πετσόκοψες έτσι κυριακάτικα ρε Αν Σέλτσερ;

[yorgos @yorgos]

@maikwl Έλα ντε, μήπως είναι αρκετά μικρό το Ν των ανεξάρτητων στο poll; Το report δεν έχει και crosstabs.

[yorgos @yorgos]

@nan0nymous Ναι, μεγάλο + για Biden τα αρκετά, weakly correlated paths. Δλδ μπορεί να χάσει FL, GA, NC *και PA* και να φτάσει τους 270 με AZ & Omaha.

[yorgos @yorgos]

@nan0nymous 😉 Battle of the A+ pollsters: NYT/Siena: Biden +11 in WI

[yorgos @yorgos]

Well written. Bob Taylor was a true Silicon Valley unicorn.
https://t.co/n07o0l3Cky

[yorgos @yorgos]

Futbol

[yorgos @yorgos]

@tassos_g yeah, she can carry MI and can afford to lose NH (if Reid gets her NV). But not WI, and she needs a miracle there. Not happening.

[Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn]

Folks, Clinton needs a stunner to dodge all possible races she could lose. Errors aren't 'correlated' much on election night, unlike polls

[yorgos @yorgos]

@tassos_g @nytimes believe there wasn't a single poll showing trump ahead there.

[yorgos @yorgos]

@tassos_g only if she carries FL or NC, so basically no. WI also in peril (even the exit poll has it close)

[yorgos @yorgos]

@tassos_g find it hard to see how right now. Looking at polling miss worse than brexit. She may snatch VA, but MI looks bad.

[Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn]

Clinton, in my view, is in serious danger in Wisconsin and Michigan. Not very clear what's going on in PA.

[yorgos @yorgos]

This is shaping up to be a major nailbiter: HRC retreats to firewall, VA/PA critical. So much for GOTV advantage... 🙄

[yorgos @yorgos]

Rural-urban rift wider than ever. Exits look off, 270 not yet in the bag for HRC.

[Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn]

Trump running well ahead of Romney in rural America. It will keep Michigan and Pennsylvania close.

[yorgos @yorgos]

Barring major exit poll failure in the North, Hillary is POTUS 45. But will need to work with a republican Congress.

[yorgos @yorgos]

CNN early exit has HRC up 2% in NC

[yorgos @yorgos]

CNN exits: HRC par in VA (~7%), Trump overperforms in SC (~8%, bodes well for him in NC), underperforms in GA (~1.5%).