ZHUZHOU

[AdaYY▀ ▀ ▀ ²’⁰ ¹ ▀ ▀ ▀ @adaYen72]

👀my read on 2026 H2 and how i'm positioned:

the base case for the second half is stepwise deleveraging from stretched highs, not an ai bubble collapse, but not a continuation of ai euphoria either.

the whole thing rests on one condition: credit stays intact.

HY OAS is still low. the private credit behind the ai buildout is the real landmine, but it hasn't turned into a systemic credit event yet. as long as that holds, ai can grind at the top and bleed leverage on repeat.

what's got me leaning this way:

> leverage is still high. margin debt is at record highs, and SOXL still trades at a premium into selloffs.

> hawkish backdrop. this market already priced in cuts. so no cut IS the bad news. higher for longer welds the valuation ceiling shut.

> the fed got less legible. Warsh scrapped the rate roadmap, so every data print swings harder and the post event vol crush fades.

> geopolitical tail is back. hormuz and oil are re-entering the pricing, with crude bouncing off the lows.

net: an asymmetric tape. good news gets muted and bad news gets amplified.

two paths from here. i lean the FIRST.

1. grind lower in steps — base case

leverage never fully clears. small bounces, lower highs each time.
jul-aug bleeds. late aug, the jackson hole + NVDA window could trigger a short bounce. sep into early nov, seasonality stacks on top of more deleveraging.

post election early nov probably bounces, but the size depends on two things: did leverage actually clear, and did the fed actually pivot.

2. flush then new highs — the optimistic long shot

2024-H2 crypto style.
brutal setup though. both have to happen: a loud capitulation flush in jul-aug that wipes leverage clean, AND macro turning good with the fed going dovish.

line those up with post election seasonality and year-end highs are back on the table. but now the first condition isn't close yet.

the tail:

if private credit, ai data center financing, and HY OAS all start bleeding in one direction, that's not a correction anymore but the bubble unwinding.

how i'm positioned:

equities: 1/3 in spot. selling short-dated puts to leg into the stepdowns, using part of that premium to buy deep OTM puts as tail cover.

crypto: don't fight the tape. short the bounces while it's under the 200ma, but a fed pivot or liquidity turn is my stop.

the wildest sector on earth turning boring at the top, while the real risk hides in the debt nobody's marking daily. that's the whole setup.

[ZHUZHOU @ZHUZHOU13]

好 谢谢 我将彻夜不吃不喝开始研究

[AdaYY▀ ▀ ▀ ²’⁰ ¹ ▀ ▀ ▀ @adaYen72]

好 谢谢 我将彻夜不吃不喝开始研究

[AdaYY▀ ▀ ▀ ²’⁰ ¹ ▀ ▀ ▀ @adaYen72]

AI is killing the noise and serendipity of human life.

it took the beautiful mess of human accidents and compressed it into a slider called "Temperature".
the path to an answer is no longer a winding exploration, it's just a frictionless straight line.
we're losing the complexity, but more importantly, we're losing the "friction" of paying a real price for discovery.🧵👇(1/6)

[AdaYY▀ ▀ ▀ ²’⁰ ¹ ▀ ▀ ▀ @adaYen72]

Meta ruined my life.

The layoffs also laid off my metaverse illusion, along with my 0 valueNFTs.
As an absolute OG, I remember the raw electricity of the onchain metaverse era.
Pure vibes. Real ALPHA.

In 2019, I watched the Dogecoin Center rise in @cryptovoxels,
raising funds to send $DOGE to Mars and attempting to contact @elonmusk ,
long before he ever tweeted about it. (fig 1,2)
The seeds of the DOGE-1 Mission in 2025 were planted right there.

Back then, we built the first onchain gallery for Autoglyphs,
when they were still trading at 1 ETH.
I was the architect behind it.
Years later, those same works sold in bundles at ~500 ETH each. (fig 3)

I also designed one of the largest crypto art galleries in @decentraland, hosting exhibitions to give digital artists real visibility. (fig 4)

We genuinely believed this was the future, a real path to blockchain mass adoption.
Then the pandemic hit, everyone rushed from atoms to pixels.
The niche went mainstream, the suits arrived.
OpenSea was the OpenAI of its time.
And the moment Facebook rebranded to Meta marked the absolute top.

Then came the collapse.
They came for the hype, took the profits,
and left us with the ruins.

Every niche that goes mainstream pays this price.
History doesn’t repeat but it rhymes.
And right now, the echoes are deafening.
So, Zuck, do me a favor:
please give me a heads-up before your next rebrand.
I really need to exit my positions first.

Thanks.

[Lin @Speculator_io]

A List of Data Center Operators:

$ORCL Oracle
$CRWV CoreWeave
$NBIS Nebius
$IREN Iren
$GLXY Galaxy Digital
$APLD Applied Digital
$RIOT Riot Platforms
$CIFR Cipher Mining
$MARA Mara
$GDS GDS
$CORZ Core Scientific
$CLSK CleanSpark
$WULF TeraWulf
$BTBT Bit Digital
$HUT Hut 8
$BTDR Bitdeer
$BITF Bitfarms
$VNET VNET
$HIVE Hive Digital
$WYFI WhiteFiber
$DGXX Digi Power X
$SLNH Soluna
$MIGI Mawson Infrastructure

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

The Government is Telling You To Invest IN:

AI
Data Centers
Compute
Power
Space
Defense
Robotics
Autonomy
Biotech
Rare Earths
Manufacturing
Crypto Infrastructure

They’re telling you exactly where the generational wealth is.

Stop guessing.

[ZHUZHOU @ZHUZHOU13]

@hexiecs 牛逼

[ZHUZHOU @ZHUZHOU13]

@feltanimalworld 你也有y染色体的，自信

[ZHUZHOU @ZHUZHOU13]

gm

[SBF @SBF_FTX]

gm

[ZHUZHOU @ZHUZHOU13]

@ChainTrust0103 我是内鬼 加

[ZHUZHOU @ZHUZHOU13]

@yancong11 第一轮是0.015 第二轮0.05

[ZHUZHOU @ZHUZHOU13]

@JasminePaolini @WTA cong jasmine!

[ZHUZHOU @ZHUZHOU13]

@liping007 fartcoin

[Primitive Ventures @primitivecrypto]

https://t.co/z4bIhJwNHG

[ZHUZHOU @ZHUZHOU13]

@ChinaWhaleETH 笑晕

[AdaYY▀ ▀ ▀ ²’⁰ ¹ ▀ ▀ ▀ @adaYen72]

最近深刻理解为什么说未来不会再有牛散 ，看了一个ai trading fund的doc，才明白“推背感”从何而来。
我之前做过trading bot，但后来停掉，因为市场变化后策略失效，也没时间调整。

直到看到被称为未来趋势的llm+rl驱动的新式ai交易系统，它完美解决了我过去做bot时遇到的几个痛点：

1. 传统量化交易仅依赖“结构化数据”（如技术指标，量价和结构化市场数据greed index等）；
llm能够将“非结构化数据”（市场buzz，研报信息等）引入模型，让ai具备市场情境感知能力，拥有全面信息流info flow。

2. 传统 rl交易系统训练成本高，需要大量历史数据训练，回测调参，容易出现过度拟合的问题（我吃过大亏）。
而 llm赋能的rl交易ai系统，能够结合历史交易经验和金融信息进行智能优化，提高训练效率，泛化 策略，而不局限于特定市场。

3. 传统量化策略较为固定，面对市场变化需要人工干预和重新优化（比如我需要调整bot）
新ai交易系统却能自适应市场变化，实时分析市场反馈，不断优化交易策略。

ai革命带来的是各行业的范式转移paradigm shift，裹挟着每一个人或前进或被吞没。所有智力型产业都将重新洗牌，未来不再是二八定律，而是0.2/9.8定律。

[AdaYY▀ ▀ ▀ ²’⁰ ¹ ▀ ▀ ▀ @adaYen72]

以“天”为周期，回测了一下2024/12-2025/3 币安现货新币的表现情况：
1. 持有新币不超过一天的赢率最大。
2.大多数新币持有时间超过一个月后，回本概率几乎为零。
3. 只要买了新币，且持有时间>=1天，亏的可能更大，平均赢率只有45.9%。
4. 持有新币的平均回报是喜获腰斩，-44%。
5. 表现最好的是 #cheems ，#layer ，#bera ，唯三奖励钻石手的代币。尤其cheems，苦撑bn现货排面。

无怪现在亏圈已经演变为pvp的终极形态，即便是在流动性最高的bn spot，市场已经不再奖励钻石手，交易级别越来越小，恶性循环ing。

[ZHUZHOU @ZHUZHOU13]

@0xgerace wen

[Zhu Su @zhusu]

In 2018 there used to be these tg pump groups with hundreds of thousands of ppl in them, and the operators would post a lowcap token that was listed on Bittrex, Poloniex, Binance, etc. The idea was that then everyone in the group would rush to buy the coin. If you had a scraper youd be early, etc. These coins often gained 100-200%. Even after the inevitable dump, these coins would still be higher than before the original pump, as many outsiders unaware of these groups had no idea that’s what caused the price move.

Eventually the music stopped when ppl stopped buying these charts and also when operators accumulated too much supply beforehand to sell into these pumps.

[ZHUZHOU @ZHUZHOU13]

笑晕 推特也太容易被盗了

[Bear Liu @bearliu]

睡梦中的推特骗局：我被冒牌记者套路了

我刚刚才从一次诈骗中脱身。损失不大，但整个过程太离奇了。我必须分享这个经历，让大家有个防范。

我平时很熟悉网络，用社交媒体也很多年了，自以为能认出各种骗局。但这次还是中招了。

事情是从一个推特私信开始的。一个叫 “TorresCampbell8” 的人，自称是 TechCrunch 的记者，说他在做跟 AI 和科技相关的报道，想找我聊聊。听上去没什么问题。我以前也有接受过类似的采访请求，于是去他资料页看了看。他似乎从去年开始发或转一些看似像 TechCrunch 的文章，账号显示是 2012 年创建的。唯一让我稍微迟疑的是那个 “8” 的尾缀，但我没多想。

他发来一个 Calendly 链接让我约时间。我点开链接，流程看起来很正常，还收到了预定成功的确认邮件。只不过上面没有 Zoom 或其它会议连结，我想也许他会稍后再发。然后我就去睡觉了。

第二天早上醒来，发现我推特底下出现奇怪评论，有人骂我是骗子。一开始我以为又是网络喷子。接着我朋友在微信上发截图给我，说我的账号昨晚发了一条推文，推荐一个所谓的加密项目，还附带了合约地址。我的简介都被改了，看起来就像我是什么“创始人”。可等我上推特一看，那条推文已经被删掉。它是在我睡觉时发的，而我还没醒时就被删掉了。

我尝试联系那位 “Torres”，但他已把我拉黑，完全没有回应。于是我进推特的安全设置里翻记录，发现 Calendly 获得了读写我推文的权限。大概就是通过这层授权，对方在我睡着时发了诈骗信息。