We are seeing the contraction in liquidity flowing through into risk markets. Naturally it first showed up in BTC and market internals within equities, and now is finally hitting the broader indices. Speculative retail trades such as quantum, nuclear, drones, and alt energy have been getting destroyed, with a quality rotation towards Mag7 or momentum names that are supported by earnings (AI capex beneficiaries).
Monetary liquidity is drawing down as the TGA has become overfilled beyond the Treasury Dept’s $850bn cap, due to mechanical factors around higher issuance, timing of specific payments, and the government shutdown. There is a broader lack of bank reserves which continues to fall below the key $3trn threshold. All of this will precipitate actions to calm market plumbing but it will take time.
The fiscal deficit has been contracting given tariff collections, and then the gov shutdown further reducing the deficit by $0.5bn/day or more.
The DXY has been rallying and is now approaching a key level at 101, which would be a logical point for it to top. I continue to believe the Trump administration wants a lower dollar.
Thus I view all of this as transient, but this environment can persist for a bit longer. The government reopening provides a clear catalyst to mark the bottom in liquidity conditions. Then, we get QT unwinding Dec 1 and then potentially more Fed actions (such as hints on bills repurchases) on Dec 10. The fiscal deficit will expand significantly starting Jan 1 as the OBBBA will fully kick in.
All in all, BTC has held in well despite tremendous OG selling, the aftermath of 10/10, and the factors above. I have been trading around it to reduce PnL hits but generally believe this is broadly a zone of value ahead of what will be a strong period heading into next year. I currently have a sizable cash position and plan to aggressively add equities (especially the memory trade) and BTC once the government reopening looks imminent.
If you missed the $ARB airdrop, then zkSync is your next big airdrop opportunity.
🧵: This thread contains EVERYTHING you need to know about @zksync, including:
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Biggest Airdrops Guide
Some people earned up to 6 figs with the past Airdrop. This thread covers the 4 biggest upcoming airdrops:
LayerZero
zkSync
Lens
Sei Network
Quick guide to get have the highest chance at getting $ZRO, $ZKS, $LENS, $SEI
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🥂 Suiswap Permanent Testnet
We are excited to announce that Suiswap has officially launched on the permanent @SuiNetwork Testnet, marking an important step towards our journey to the mainnet.
#Sui