Most debates about ๐๐ miss this completely.
Everything you need to know about ๐๐ is in this chart.
This is a snapshot from a course I started teaching last week. You can still join this week. Course name: Application of ๐๐๐ ๐ and ๐๐ in ๐ค๐๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ. I will put the sign up link in the comments.
Now let me explain why this chart matters.
There is a gap in ๐๐. A ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ด๐ฎ๐ฝ. Between the ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ you want solved and what the ๐บ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น actually understands.
That gap must be filled with ๐ถ๐ป๐๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐. ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐๐. ๐ช๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ณ๐น๐ผ๐๐. ๐ง๐ผ๐ผ๐น๐. ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ. If you do not fill the gap, you get ๐ต๐ฎ๐น๐น๐๐ฐ๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐. You get ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฟ๐. You get ๐ณ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ณ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ.
Look at the ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฒ๐. ๐ซ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐ is ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐๐. ๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐ is ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ.
As ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐๐ increases, ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ drops. Fast. Almost ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐.
๐ฆ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐ are easy. Compare words. Summarize text. Extract numbers.
๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐ break ๐บ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น๐. ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐บ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด. ๐ก๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐น๐๐. ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ. ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ. ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐.
Now look at ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐๐.
For ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐, ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ is low. For ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐, ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ explodes. More paths. More ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฟ๐. More confident wrong answers. That dark band shows it.
Now look at the ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐. Blue is todayโs ๐๐. Orange is future ๐๐.
๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น๐ improve over time. They shift to the right. But the shift is uneven.
๐ฆ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐ improve fast. ๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐ barely move.
That is why new ๐บ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น๐ feel magical on easy things and disappointing on hard ones.
Now look at the yellow wall.
There may be a hidden ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐น. Tasks models may never reliably cross. Not because of ๐๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ. But because of ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ and ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ.
๐๐๐บ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ท๐๐ฑ๐ด๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐. ๐ง๐ฟ๐๐ฒ ๐ป๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐น๐๐. ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ under ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐๐. Especially in ๐ณ๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ.
Now the important part.
How do we use ๐๐ anyway?
Two approaches.
๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ณ๐น๐ผ๐๐. Humans stay in control. You break a ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ into ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฝ๐. ๐๐ solves each step.
This requires careful ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ป. ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด. ๐ง๐ผ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด. ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฎ ๐ฒ๐ป๐ด๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด.
This is how we at ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ป๐ถ๐๐๐ฎ.๐๐ grade handwritten exams with ๐๐. ๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ. Broken into ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ones.
Then there are ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐๐.
You give a ๐ด๐ผ๐ฎ๐น. The system breaks it down itself. Calls ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐น๐. Acts ๐ฎ๐๐๐ผ๐ป๐ผ๐บ๐ผ๐๐๐น๐.
But ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ still struggle.
The path from ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐ to ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ is not optimized. ๐๐ฐ๐ฐ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ drops. ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ drops. ๐๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ compound.
This is the ๐๐ป๐๐ผ๐น๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ๐บ.
How do you go from right to left from ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐ to ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ones in the best possible way?
Highest ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐. Highest ๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ. Lowest ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐๐.
No one has solved this.
That is what this ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฒ is about.
๐ช๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ณ๐น๐ผ๐๐. ๐๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐๐. ๐ข๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐บ๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป. ๐ ๐ฒ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐. ๐ข๐ป๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ ๐น๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด. ๐ง๐ผ๐ผ๐น ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด. ๐ ๐๐น๐๐ถ๐บ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐๐๐๐ฒ๐บ๐.
And one last thing.
๐๐ at ๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ depends on this curve. If you do not understand it you cannot ๐๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ safely or profitably.
This chart explains most ๐๐ ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ถ๐น๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ I see in practice.
If this resonates, feel free to share. If you want to go deeper, join us. Link in the comments.
Sign up Here: https://t.co/LxnQa9O402
It is a serious heatwave across the UK and Europe right now. Stay cool and look after yourselves out there.
If you do fancy some reading this weekend, here are six papers in quant finance and AI for you. Enjoy.
โฝ The Reach of the World Cup Distraction Effect: Evidence from Global Trading Venues
https://t.co/D83nZ31rBD
๐ค The Shift to Agentic AI: Evidence from Codex
https://t.co/nRcAyiza3A
๐ Boundaries of Time Series Momentum
https://t.co/AqVf72quey
๐ข Volatility Disagreement in the Options Market
https://t.co/yCzjyVNhzn
๐๏ธ Government Funding Costs Under Financial Repression
https://t.co/yqJSq7vkbo
๐ Beyond Growth Rates: Macro Trends and Price Cycles
https://t.co/gME7aZkJpf
#QuantFinance #QuantitativeFinance #MachineLearning #ArtificialIntelligence #AgenticAI #FinancialMarkets #Trading #Volatility #OptionsTrading #Momentum #BehavioralFinance #Macroeconomics #FinTech #ResearchPapers๎๎ป๎๎ป๎น๎
I started a monthly digest that cuts out all the noise in #Quant_Finance & #AI/#LLM research. Just the things that actually matter. Friends keep telling me it saves them a ton of time.
Sign up here: https://t.co/TCb9hARa5H
Here are past issues if you want a peek: https://t.co/PWTMaPbnZn
๐ AI Daily Pulse | 26 June 2026
$AAPL Memory crunch forces broad price hikes, stock slips ~6%
$MSFT Italy probes 365 AI pricing as Xbox hikes and capex fears bite
$TSLA Fatal Texas crash sparks federal probes, but Berlin output jumps 20%
$SPCX Starlink mobile push and Russell 1000 add, clouded by post IPO wobble
$META $299 AI glasses land amid privacy and child safety lawsuits
$GOOGL AI and cloud expansion offset by Gemini talent exits and delays
$NVDA Rubin hits full production and AWS wins, even as OpenAI builds its own chip
$AMZN $48B India AWS bet collides with EU gatekeeper scrutiny
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
AI & Mag7 Daily Pulse | 24 June 2026
$AAPL: Siri rebuild and foldable buzz, but a ยฃ3bn UK iCloud case hangs over it
$TSLA: NatPower Megapack win lands as a fatal Texas crash probe heats up
$SPCX: $25bn bond sale crushed it on demand, yet post IPO selloff still stings
$GOOGL: Joins the Dow, though DeepMind talent exits and Waymo recalls bite
$MSFT: New data centre and Azure wins clouded by Copilot backlash
$META: $299 AI glasses launch runs into fresh EU and privacy heat
$NVDA: BioNeMo debuts strong as China export curbs and a chip rout drag
$AMZN: Prime Day plus India quick commerce push, against rising execution risk
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
๐ AI & Bitcoin & Mag7 Daily Pulse :: 23 Jun 2026
$GOOGL Slides 5-7% as Jumper & Shazeer exit for Anthropic and OpenAI
$TSLA Federal fatal-crash probe offsets a 25 GWh NatPower win
$SPCX Third post-IPO slide as a $20B bond sale spooks investors
$AAPL Price hikes, supplier breach and fresh antitrust heat
$BTC Breaks below $63K on relentless ETF outflows
$ANTHROPIC Federal use ban bites, but Micron and Jumper soften it
$MSFT Locks a 20-year Chevron deal for a 2GW Texas AI campus
$META $900M Cred bet meets an escalating EU child-safety probe
$OPENAI Cyber push and Samsung/IBM wins clash with leaked losses
$NVDA Halos robotics launch and 35 new Europe supercomputers
$AMZN Prime Day kicks off as $200B AI capex draws scrutiny
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
๐ MagSeven & BTC Daily Pulse โ June 22, 2026
$AAPL Price hikes loom as memory costs spike, Intel foundry talks could re-shore chips
$BTC Six straight weeks of ETF outflows, though pension money starts nibbling
$META AI momentum cools as a key exec exits and legal bills pile up
$MSFT Oracle deal collapse stings, so it doubles down on in-house AI
$GOOGL Cloud up 63% and Berkshire loading up, but that $85B raise raises eyebrows
$NVDA Now coming for CPUs, eyeing $20B this year
$TSLA Undercutting robotaxi rivals as Belgium greenlights FSD
$AMZN Prime Day buzz and AWS chip ambitions, with the FTC watching
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
June 19, 2026
AI, Bitcoin & Mag7 daily pulse
$BTC slides toward $60k on a hawkish Fed and ETF outflows, even as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton push new products.
$META adds about 1.6GW of AI capacity, but child safety lawsuits and regulators are closing in.
$ANTHROPIC expands in Korea and enterprise, then gets blindsided by sudden US export curbs on its top models.
$AAPL warns of unavoidable price hikes from memory costs, with a possible Intel chip tie up as the sweetener.
$MSFT ships Copilot Cowork and posts strong China demand while facing fresh securities suits and EU antitrust heat.
$SPCX rides its record IPO and investment grade ratings, but a $20bn bond raise and Cursor dilution worry the market.
$TSLA gains in China and Germany, yet Sweden wants the EU to block its FSD rollout.
$NVDA lands a huge Meta Blackwell and Rubin deal as Google and Amazon push their own chips harder.
$OPENAI signs Noam Shazeer and grows ads, but Florida is suing and leaked 2025 losses look heavy.
$GOOGL shows a $460bn cloud backlog and Berkshire support against an $80bn raise that revives dilution fears.
$AMZN builds a $10bn AWS campus and opens up Trainium, though heavy AI spend cut free cash flow to $1.2bn.
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
Zanista Daily Pulse โ 17 Jun 2026
$TSLA: FSD heat rising, but Goldman lifts Q2 deliveries and Dutch regulators back the rollout
$MSFT: AI run-rate hits $37B; Xbox shake-up and $37.5B capex keep bulls and bears split
$BTC: BlackRock's income ETF lands as ~259K BTC gets scooped up, even with demand cooling
$NVDA: $25B bond priced and AI-factory deals stacking up, despite custom-chip rivals circling
$GOOGL: Berkshire piles in ~$21B, but an $80B+ raise stirs dilution worries
$AAPL: Italy opens a DMA probe on iOS cloud rules, low immediate hit but EU overhang grows
$META: Threads crosses 500M users; BofA says Buy while Oppenheimer says sell
$AMZN: $17.5B secured for AI and analysts eye 34% upside, only the Fed clouds the mood
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
๐ง๐๐ผ ๐ฆ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฎ ๐ก๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐พ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฑ $๐ญ.๐ต๐ฏ๐ง ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐น๐ถ๐พ๐๐ถ๐ฑ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ณ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป ๐ต๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ๐
๐๐ฎ๐ง๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ means announcing a large order before you fill it. The textbook worry is other traders moving ahead of you. Davide Barone and Fabrizio Lillo test that on Hyperliquid, a fully on chain order book for crypto perpetual futures (every order and trade is recorded publicly, so anyone can see who did what), where native ๐๐๐๐ orders (Time Weighted Average Price, a parent order auto sliced into equal pieces over a window) are visible from the moment they start. They compare those against hidden orders pieced together from wallet activity.
๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฑ ๐
The sample sets ๐.๐๐ hidden metaorders (one big trade split into many child orders) against ๐๐๐๐ค visible TWAP programs.
Because every action ties to a wallet on chain, they measured execution cost, price impact, and book depth (how much resting liquidity sits in the order book) around each order directly.
๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐๐น๐๐ ๐
Visible TWAPs paid about ๐.๐ต ๐๐ฉ๐ฌ (basis points, hundredths of one percent) less temporary impact, meaning the price moved against them less while they were filling. On a $1M order that gap is roughly $890.
They also left about ๐ ๐๐ฉ๐ฌ less permanent price impact, the part of the move that sticks after the order is done. So the market read announced flow as ๐ฅ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐, not more loaded with information.
The cost did not vanish, it moved. Hidden traders buying while a visible TWAP was also buying (same direction flow) paid more.
๐๐ถ๐บ๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐
Traders choose to use TWAP, so this compares two trader populations, not one trader flipping a switch. And on a public chain, hidden is never truly anonymous, since same wallet flow can be inferred as it happens.
๐๐ถ๐ด๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ง
The point is not that disclosure was free. It is that disclosure changed who supplies ๐ฅ๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ and who carries information risk. Announcing intent can read as a credible signal that you are uninformed, which pulls in depth rather than competition. How much of this survives on venues without a native, low friction announcement tool?
Authors: Davide Barone and Fabrizio Lillo, Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa.
Link to the paper: https://t.co/isJ8wVSusd
I started a monthly digest that cuts out all the noise in #Quant_Finance & #AI/#LLM research. Just the things that actually matter. Friends keep telling me it saves them a ton of time.
Sign up here: https://t.co/TCb9hARa5H
Here are past issues if you want a peek: https://t.co/PWTMaPbnZn
๐ June 16, 2026 | AI, BTC & Mag7 Daily Pulse
$NVDA $25B bond sale ran roughly 3x oversubscribed, though China access and GPU supply stay the overhang.
$AMZN Missouri data center adds momentum, but about $200B of 2026 capex keeps pressuring cash flow.
$SPCX up over 50% in three sessions after IPO, now bumping against a stretched valuation.
$GOOGL $1.5B Alabama buildout running into growing dilution worries.
$BTC back above $66k as Iran tensions ease, ETF outflows still capping the move.
$META Facebook AI Mode goes live and walks straight into fresh legal heat.
$TSLA deliveries improving while Europe digs into its FSD safety data.
$AAPL smarter Siri lands at WWDC just as Italy opens an antitrust probe.
$MSFT enterprise AI wins offset by a shareholder suit over Azure spend and Xbox cuts.
$OPENAI confidential IPO filing meets a multistate probe and heavy 2025 losses.
$ANTHROPIC US export controls pull Fable 5 and Mythos 5 offline globally.
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
๐ธ ๐๐๐ฑ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ฉ๐ก๐
๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ป๐ด (๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ, ๐๐ผ๐น๐๐บ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ฎ) ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ญ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฟ๐ป๐ ๐๐ต๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ. ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐น๐ฎ๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฎ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฑ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐น๐ผ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐๐ป ๐ฒ๐พ๐๐ถ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ต.
Most long run equity numbers everyone quotes are pretax, meaning before tax is paid. This paper rebuilds the one taxable investors actually kept, holding the whole US market from ๐ญ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ and paying tax under whatever code was in force each year.
๐ ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฑ
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ณ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ผ. It holds the market cap weighted CRSP portfolio (CRSP is the standard academic database of all US common stocks) and runs the real annual tax return every year: dividend rules, holding periods, loss limits, carryforwards, and the step up at inheritance (heirs reset the cost basis, which erases the built up gain).
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ. Baseline is a top ๐ญ% household starting with $๐ญ๐ taxable, taxed year by year across ๐ญ๐ญ capital gains regimes and ๐ญ๐ฐ dividend regimes (the rules changed that many times).
๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐๐น๐๐
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ๐ผ๐. From ๐ญ๐ต๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ, $๐ญ๐ became $๐ฑ.๐ญ๐ฐ๐ after tax, not $๐ด.๐ฌ๐ต๐ . That is $๐ฎ.๐ต๐ฑ๐ before state tax, fees, or inflation.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐. Across eight overlapping ๐ฏ๐ฌ year windows, average drag is ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ฝ๐ a year (tax drag is the yearly gap between the pretax return and what the investor keeps, and a basis point is ๐ฌ.๐ฌ๐ญ%). Toughest window, ๐ญ๐ต๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐ญ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฑ, reached ๐ฑ๐ฏ๐ด ๐ฏ๐ฝ๐.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฑ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ. ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐, not trading. Tax them at capital gains rates and average drag falls from ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ณ ๐๐ผ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฝ๐.
๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐
Federal income tax only. State and local taxes would push the drag higher. No estate tax, no active loss harvesting, no wash sales.
๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ
Here is the part the wealth industry rarely highlights. For a passive market portfolio, the upper bound on tax loss harvesting (selling losing positions to offset gains and lower the bill) is about ๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐ฏ๐ฝ๐, and switching lot selection from FIFO to HIFO (which lots you sell first) buys roughly ๐ญ๐ฐ ๐ฏ๐ฝ๐. The tax regime itself moves drag by hundreds of basis points. So the high value work is tax policy and account location (which type of account holds the assets, taxable versus retirement), not lot optimization. With US fiscal pressure rising, today's mild ๐ญ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฝ๐ looks more like a floor than a norm. Are advisors selling the ๐ฏ๐ฌ and ignoring the ๐ฏ๐ฌ๐ฌ?
Link to the paper: https://t.co/mOTP5M3LNG
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AI, BTC & Mag7 Daily Pulse | June 15, 2026
Regulation squeezed Big AI today while Bitcoin caught a bid.
$ANTHROPIC: US export controls pull Fable 5 and Mythos 5 offline, burying the enterprise wins.
$TSLA: Europe questions the FSD safety claims just as autonomy progress shows up.
$META: A UK child-access crackdown lands on an already costly AI build.
$MSFT: EY's $1B deal and the NHS Copilot rollout outweigh the Xbox drag.
$OPENAI: A confidential IPO filing runs straight into a 42-state safety probe.
$AAPL: The new Siri arrives to lukewarm reviews and EU launch friction.
$BTC: Back above $65K as Iran tensions cool and ETF inflows return.
$GOOGL: Cheaper Gemini widens the AI push while regulators keep circling.
$NVDA: Global AI infrastructure keeps expanding even as China risk sharpens.
$SPCX: Post-IPO rally runs hot and the valuation debate gets louder.
$AMZN: No.1 on the Fortune 500, leaning harder into Prime and freight.
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
๐ June 14, 2026 | MagSeven & BTC daily pulse ๐
$MSFT Copilot lawsuit and Xbox restructure talk, but $3.65B in fresh GPU financing keeps Azure AI moving
$BTC back above $63K on returning ETF inflows and a rare 10% mining difficulty drop
$META hit by a global outage and a forced $2B China AI unwind, yet analysts still flag Buy
$AAPL new Siri AI leans on Google and Nvidia cloud, beta underwhelms and skips EU/China
$TSLA robotaxis pushing into Arizona and Nevada as Semi adoption grows
$AMZN tapping a record C$14B bond to fund a $200B AI buildout
$NVDA piloting a recurring revenue data center model in Australia
$GOOGL raises $80B for AI but faces a Munich liability ruling
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
June 13, 2026 |
$AMZN: AI capex keeps rising, but debt and data-center pushback are the pressure points.
$BTC-USD: U.S. perpetual futures approval boosts liquidity, while ETF outflows keep caution alive.
$TSLA: SpaceX IPO buzz lifts volatility, but FSD, robotaxi, and valuation debates drive the real story.
$MSFT: AI growth is strong, yet Xbox spinoff chatter and gaming layoffs cloud sentiment.
$META: Instagram Plus and AI capacity are bullish, but capex, outages, and downgrades weigh.
$AAPL: Limited WWDC AI rollout disappointed, while services strength and upgrade demand support the bull case.
$GOOGL: Massive AI infrastructure funding accelerates growth, but dilution and capex concerns linger.
$NVDA: China CPU strategy and Australia AI deal expand the runway, with geopolitics still the key risk.
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
SpaceX priced its record IPO at $135 a share, raising about $75 billion at a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation ahead of Nasdaq trading. Demand was reportedly more than four times oversubscribed with strong BlackRock interest, though credible outlets question the valuation given ongoing losses, heavy spending and governance concerns.
๐ AI&BTC&Mag7 Daily Pulse | 12 June 2026
$SPCX prices record IPO at $135, ~$1.77T valuation, 4x oversubscribed
$AMZN hidden Anthropic upside in focus as capex and FCF worries grow
$NVDA joins KKR's $10B Helix venture, lands S&P AA upgrade
$AAPL WWDC Siri rebuild lands, but no launch date and antitrust heat
$GOOGL AI cloud wins clash with dilution and capex fears
$TSLA wins FSD approval in Belgium and Denmark, robotaxi scrutiny bites
$MSFT Xbox layoff reports and a second Copilot outage weigh
ANTHROPIC files confidentially for IPO amid Fable 5 backlash
OPENAI IPO push collides with new wrongful death lawsuit
$META signs Reliance-backed 168MW India AI data centre deal
$BTC rebounds on easing Iran tensions, ETF outflows still heavy
Not financial advice.
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The SpaceX IPO prices tomorrow and it's pulling the whole market into its orbit.
Demand has reportedly topped $250 billion, more than four times oversubscribed, with sovereign funds and retail piling in. A Google AI compute deal and expected investment grade ratings add fuel. But Elizabeth Warren wants the SEC to delay it, and critics call the $1.75 trillion valuation overstretched. Either way, the rotation is already visible. Money is moving out of Bitcoin and Tesla to make room.
Here's what happened across the rest of the portfolio today, in one line each, the sentiment score showing the count of positive versus negative news stories:
$SPCX Over $250B in demand for tomorrow's $135 IPO, but regulators and valuation critics are circling
$BTC Hovering near $61,000 as ETF outflows, Iran driven risk aversion and IPO rotation drain demand
$TSLA Belgium approved FSD and China sales jumped 22.5%, yet robotaxi doubts and SpaceX rotation weigh
$MSFT Major Xbox layoffs reported alongside a record 200 plus vulnerability Patch Tuesday
$ANTHROPIC Fable 5 launched with strong benchmarks, but Microsoft restricted internal use over data retention
$AAPL Siri AI debuted at WWDC, analysts raised targets while shares fell on a measured rollout
$META First India AI data center deal with Reliance, while courts and EU regulators tighten the screws
$OPENAI Visa, Samsung and Oracle deals expand reach as reports point to steep token price cuts against Anthropic
$NVDA Blackwell supply is tighter than expected and Google wants 110,000 GPUs, despite the sector selloff
$GOOGL Gemini is everywhere and BMO ranks Google first in full stack AI, but the $85B raise sparks dilution worries
$AMZN Freight went nationwide and Graviton5 launched, while a $17.5B loan raises cash flow questions
Watch where the SpaceX money comes from tomorrow. That tells you more about positioning than any single headline.
This is a snapshot from our NewsWitch daily pulse, built from close to a million articles processed every day. Not financial advice.
Want a custom daily pulse for your own portfolio? Reach out at [email protected]
#SpaceXIPO #AI #Markets #Fintech #NewsWitch
AI&BTC&Mag7 Daily Pulse | 10 June 2026
$ANTHROPIC Fable 5 launches with $35bn Google-backed compute financing
$SPCX IPO 4x oversubscribed, India Starlink delay and governance questions linger
$OPENAI Confidential IPO filing plus a huge Ohio data centre, risks mounting too
$BTC Holding above $60k but ETF outflows and macro nerves keep bears in charge
$TSLA Robotaxi expansion and Denmark FSD approval, offset by Cybertruck recall pain
$MSFT Copilot lands big enterprise wins while a record Patch Tuesday tests trust
$AAPL New Siri finally arrives at WWDC, investors shrug and shares slide
$META First India AI data centre with Reliance, EU forces WhatsApp open
$AMZN BofA reiterates Buy at $310 as Kuiper nears commercial service
$NVDA Backing OpenAI's 10GW Ohio buildout, supply stays tight
$GOOGL Reported $80bn+ equity raise sparks dilution debate despite Gemini at 900m users
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
MagSeven & BTC Daily Pulse | June 9, 2026
$BTC: Back above $63K as MicroStrategy resumes buying, though ETF outflows keep things shaky.
$TSLA: JPMorgan upgrade and China sales up 22% offset the FSD safety probe and recalls.
$META: AI agents and new subscriptions expand, but $125B+ capex talk stirs dilution fears.
$AAPL: Gemini-powered Siri and Apple Intelligence debut at WWDC, with EU rollout lagging.
$GOOGL: Blowout Q1 and 63% Cloud growth, yet the $80B raise fuels dilution worry.
$MSFT: Lands a landmark ยฃ120M NHS Copilot deal covering 505K staff.
$AMZN: AWS posts its fastest growth in 15 quarters plus a $4B Pinterest AI deal.
$NVDA: Inks Korea AI factory deals, and Apple confirms its top AI model runs on Nvidia GPUs.
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
๐ MagSeven & BTC Daily Pulse | June 8, 2026
$BTC: Slips below $60K as 13 straight days of ETF outflows ($4.4B) and MicroStrategy's first sale since 2022 push capital toward AI IPOs.
$TSLA: Austin robotaxi push and SpaceX's ~$700M Megapack order run up against a 220,000 vehicle recall.
$META: Weighing a multibillion stock raise for AI capex, sparking dilution fears and a 5 to 7% slide.
$GOOGL: Record $84.75B raise (Berkshire in for $10B) to fund 2026 capex near $185B. Cloud up 63%.
$MSFT: NHS England rolling out 365 Copilot to 505,000 staff. Enterprise AI demand looks real.
$NVDA: Lands South Korea AI factory and SK hynix HBM deals even as shares dipped below a $5T cap.
$AAPL: WWDC set to reveal a Gemini powered Siri and a possible paid tier.
$AMZN: Reported $11.6B Globalstar satellite deal while AWS keeps growing 28%.
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
June 7, 2026 - Mag 7 + Crypto Daily Pulse
$BTC: Jobs data, ETF outflows, and liquidations pushed Bitcoin below $60K despite ongoing institutional adoption.
$TSLA: FSD safety scrutiny grows, but autonomy progress and regulatory milestones keep the long-term story alive.
$MSFT: AI revenue run-rate hits $37B as Azure growth and analyst upgrades reinforce momentum.
$META: Massive AI spending raises concerns, but subscription-based AI monetization is gaining traction.
$AAPL: Record quarter and Siri AI overhaul plans strengthen the bull case despite legal and execution risks.
$NVDA: Regulatory pressure increases, yet expanding AI partnerships and infrastructure demand remain powerful tailwinds.
$GOOGL: AI investment ramps up with major funding, cloud growth, and strategic partnerships driving optimism.
$AMZN: Anthropic exposure and AWS commitments support growth, though AI capex remains a key watchpoint.
Not financial advice.
If you want a daily version of this on your own book, DM me or [email protected]
๐ง Weekend deep dive into Quant Finance ร AI.
๐ One model reads the economy and daily prices together, and beats the rest
๐ Past returns alone, fed to a Transformer, predict the market
๐งฎ A new factor framework keeps return and risk assumptions in sync
โ๏ธ AI doubles code written, but shipping barely moves
๐ Trading strategies saved as "regime memories" adapt without retraining
โฟ Bitcoin signals only pay off once you stop overtrading
#QuantFinance #AI #LLM #Trading #AssetManagement #MachineLearning #FinTech #PortfolioManagement #AlgorithmicTrading #Bitcoin #AgenticAI
Link to the paper:
Macro-aware time series forecasting via hierarchical mixed-frequency attention models
https://t.co/E5bvRkezB9
Daily Market Return Prediction with Transformer
https://t.co/ucmk8S7pYP
Capital Market Assumptions And Strategic Asset Allocation Using Multi Asset Tradable Factors
https://t.co/X8ug7pXhhO
Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools
https://t.co/BNcJiWpGYM
Regime-Adaptive Continual Learning for Portfolio Management
https://t.co/Svp4EZk6ai
Machine Learning-Based Bitcoin Trading Under Transaction Costs: Evidence From Walk-Forward Forecasting
https://t.co/T6eYaItOXw
I started a monthly digest that cuts out all the noise in #Quant_Finance & #AI/#LLM research. Just the things that actually matter. Friends keep telling me it saves them a ton of time.
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Here are past issues if you want a peek: https://t.co/PWTMaPbnZn