🚨🇺🇸 Senator Sanders: "I don’t want to hear any Republicans talk about “freedom” unless they have the guts to call out Trump for the lies that he is telling about Putin and Ukraine."
Minsk II paved the way for Russia’s full-scale invasion — another weak deal today will invite an even bigger war, writes ISW Non-Resident Russia Fellow Nataliya Bugayova in her op-ed. https://t.co/NLDzJeKn68
The Trump Administration has a historic opportunity to break Russia’s cycle of overt war and war through “peace” in Ukraine. To do so, the United States must learn the lessons from the Minsk deal:
1. Russia will seek to transfer the responsibility and cost for its war onto someone else’s balance sheet.
2. Putin will fight as long as he believes he can outlast the West and Ukraine. Ending the war requires stripping Putin of hope that he can destroy Ukraine as a state in his lifetime — militarily or through a “peace deal.”
3. Russia can accept failure.
“Trump might convince himself that he is in charge of events, but with his attention diverted to the Far East, Putin will be able to pick his time to break any agreement on spurious grounds and finally destroy Ukraine’s will and independence.” https://t.co/sGcL528i3n
Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. My latest ISW essay https://t.co/5jaHquqDtG on the lessons from the Minsk II deal that aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but led to the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. The US must learn from the Minsk deal or risk a direct Russia-NATO conflict that puts American lives at risk.
Key points:
-Minsk II was a weak deal. It demanded nothing of the invader— Russia. It strengthened the Kremlin’s aggressive worldview that had driven the conflict to begin with. It masked Russian military weakness. It gave the Kremlin time and space to prepare for a larger invasion. The West could have helped Ukraine reach a stronger deal in 2015.
-Minsk II helped Putin mask his demands for Ukraine’s surrender behind false calls for peace. The West has failed to call out and counter the real Russian demands since 2014. Minsk II reinforced Western delusions that Putin might simply settle if he received some land or if the West metered support to Ukraine or tried harder to negotiate with Putin. The deal also gave an excuse to those who understood the Kremlin’s goals but sought to restore ties with Russia anyway.
- Another weak deal today would validate 2022 invasion and give Putin hope to gain more over time. Hope for Putin means more war. More war means a larger war: An absolved Russia that bears little or no cost for its invasion will want more and will rebuild its capability to do more. A larger war would mean a higher cost for the US, risk to American lives, and risk of a catastrophic escalation.
-The Trump Administration has a historic opportunity to break Russia’s cycle of overt war and war through “peace” in Ukraine. To do so, the US must learn the lessons from the Minsk deal:
1. Russia will seek to transfer the responsibility and cost for its war onto someone else’s balance sheet.
2. Putin’s demands are stand-ins for his goals – controlling Ukraine and making the United States bend to Putin’s demands to create a world order that favors Russia.
3. Putin will fight as long as he believes he can outlast the West and Ukraine. Ending the war requires stripping Putin of hope that he can destroy Ukraine as a state in his lifetime — militarily or through a “peace deal.”
4. Russia can accept failure.
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Please consider making Bucha movie available in more countries.
It is a very important film that everybody should see. There have been a lot of requests to watch it.
Friends, please help share this post to show that the interest in the movie is high.
Thank you for supporting Ukrainian filmmakers in telling important stories to the world, @Netflix!
🗳️🇺🇸 Amazing artist-philanthropist and devoted Christian Lady Gaga urges her hundreds of millions of fans across all music platforms to stop demonic Trump from being re-elected.
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