Zeitgeist

Geopolitical News and Consulting tiktok@zeitgeistadvisory

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

#Trump getting #shot is the last nail in the coffin for the democratic candidate. Now, public opinion will shift even more in Trump's favor.

Prediction: Trump will become president again in 2024.

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

@MercuriusFilius 191

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

@BoringBiz_ The Crypto thesis is fundamentally wrong. Cryptos are risk-on assets, they always have been. High beta exposure. They never were safe-haven assets. If markets experience animal spirits, they will rally. That's why the current tech rally is healthier than it seems on the surface.

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

@paulcerro how does your thesis on $WW incorporate the fact that $TDOC or $OMDA are essentially offering the same holistic weight Management System that $WW offers? How can $WW differentiate themselves? Why would employer plans chose it over the other two?

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

@vtchakarova https://t.co/vdaaJHNYKg

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

@adityajakki @stevehou Or do you mean because of the remaining votes, that are now shown here, which add up to 100% ?

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

@adityajakki @stevehou I get that. But the still, the threshold is 5%. So at a maximum, 8.6% (FDP + BSW) will have to be proportionally assigned?

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

@adityajakki @stevehou The threshold is 5% ?

How do you get to 14.6% ?

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

@adityajakki @stevehou That is correct.

It will be extremely close, though.

The FDP will likely not make the cut, with regards to BSW, I wouldn't count on it tbh.

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

@stevehou 2/2

There are no real options for a 3rd coalition partner

The Greens (rather far left) which have governed now, would put the Conservatives, who will win this election, in a weak position bc it would be in a coalition with 2 left-wing parties

All others are even more leftist

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

@stevehou 1/2
In the short-term, no

But only bc of the "Brandmauer", a term referring to keeping the AfD out of government, supported by all major parties (It has never governed on the federal level, only very recently on the state level)

The real problem is the 3rd coalition partner...

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

@vtchakarova If the situation on the ground is indeed so dire at the moment, why would Putin even negotiate?

Couldn't he take over the country at the rate things are going?

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

However, there will be a settlement over Ukraine under the Trump administration, eventually. It will just not happen as fast as it might seem at the moment.

The most likely outcome will be, that Ukraine has to cede territory to Russia. The only question is, how much?

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

‼️ big #Ukraine thread ‼️

#Trump's comments recently may have resulted in an outcry or a sign of relief, depending on which part of the political spectrum one falls on

It is important however, to distinguish facts from rethoric

Here is an analysis about the future of Ukraine:

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

The problem is, that for Ukraine, this is absolutely unacceptable. However, the Trump administration doesn't really care about that. Crucially, the other European allies do, though! They will step up and try to make up for the lack of US military assistance

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

What can be expected now is, that there won't be a settlement in the near-future, even though it might seem like that at the moment. We are currently in a very crucial chokepoint where Ukraine has to just survive on the battlefield until the Europeans start to deliver their part

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

The only solution acceptable for Putin is to at least integrate the territories of Donbass and Crimea into Russian territory. This is the absolute minimum. Otherwise Putin can not save face amongst the russian leadership. Very likely, he will demand more.

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

What this means now is, that Russia also is in a desperate need for a settlement with Ukraine. Time will otherwise only further eat away at its already depleted financial resources. Hence, it either wants to win the war ASAP, or find a solution.

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

2. It can increase taxes, this is also not an option, largely for the same reasons already laid out with regard to government spending. Essentially, this would lead to Russians actually FEELING the impact of the war, something Putin wants to avoid at all costs.

[Zeitgeist @ZeitgeistAdvice]

Hence, Russia's state budget is desperately depleted. And since it can not go to the international financial markets anymore to raise government debts, it really only has 2 options if it doesn't want to go bankrupt: