Growth, sharing, and word-of-mouth matter for consumer products because 49.9% of a user’s decision to adopt is informed by their peers (with the remainder being the product’s intrinsic value and utility).
The internal voice in a consumer’s head is constantly telling them, “You’re supposed to do what everyone else is doing.”
If you can figure out a way to manufacture that perception for your product, you will have eliminated the most important confounding variable in your testing process, which enables you to determine viability with much greater clarity.
On preventable v. non-preventable startup deaths:
Startups are a series of experiments to reduce risk.
The 0 to 1 phase poses the most risk and should therefore have the highest scrutiny - every founding decision greatly changes the trajectory by many degrees.
But I constantly see founding teams jump in blind, and only later add way more rigor into key decisions.
Navigating the inception phase should be an exercise in scientific discipline. Every element of launching your startup should be investigated and hypothesized.
Navigating the idea maze includes:
1. Validating customer need (via customer interviews)
2. Validating market opportunity (via expert interviews, competitive research)
3. Validating cofounder fit (via cofounder dating, founder market fit)
This measured, deliberate approach to deciding what market/problem/solution to focus on doesn't ensure success. But is an exercise in risk mitigation.
Being scientific doesn’t mean it’s all analytical. Execution speed still matters. Being obsessed with the problem and customers still matters.
But being aware of market forces and financial viability of different solutions can save quarters of headache.
Fail because you didn't find product market fit or couldn't raise capital.
Don't fail because you picked a dead end market, the wrong cofounder, didn’t know it was such a competitive market, the tech became obsolete super quickly, or a host of other more preventable decisions.
Ouch - just cleaned up my VC investor CRM and took out 20 funds that are no longer deploying. It’s rough out there and I’m bummed to see some of these funds go away. Not great for founders 🥲
Most of my "obvious" investments haven't panned out.
Teams with shiny backgrounds. Competitive round dynamics. Going after an apparent market opportunity.
Alpha comes from the non-obvious tailwind, or a team that look atypical. And from taking risks other VCs aren't willing to.
When we started https://t.co/1f3QLzDnDW we did a west coast roadtrip and pitched over a dozen VCs. None said yes. Few said no. Most said some form of Maybe.
Maybe if you had more customer data. Maybe if you had more distribution deals. Maybe if…
When I became a VC I aspired to be a quick yes — or a quick no.
Jack Johnson’s aptly named song Flake could have been written about VC fundraising:
It seems to me that maybe
It pretty much always means no
A maybe VC is a lazy VC.
The more I use Replit/Cursor, the clearer it is that the floodgate of abundance that generative AI unleashes will need to be counteracted by cryptographic scarcity to preserve digital authenticity, provenance, and value.
Onchain AI is more important than I even imagined
Base is an Ethereum L2
Base chose ETH as its currency
Base uses Ethereum for settlement
Base leverages Ethereum for data availability
Base relies on Ethereum to determine its state
Your AI agent can now interact with any smart contract.
Shipped in the latest release of the @CoinbaseDev SDK.
Over the next 2 weeks, this will improve further so that any verified smart contract is dynamically callable.
No more hard-coded ABIs.
https://t.co/pu2klN9tZB
Tim Walz has a net worth of $330k at age 60.
You could get that by investing $1,218 per year in the S&P 500 over the past 35 years (avg return of 10%). Around $100 each month.
I'm sorry but you don't get to be VP if you won't put more than $3.18 per day into a Vanguard IRA.
1/ New episode - Defining DePIN with @shayonsengupta of @multicoin
We discuss:
- Investing in DePIN before the term existed
- DePINs are apps AND infrastructure
- How to actually add value as a crypto VC
Listen to the full episode below ⬇️