I think I've been caught up in the lower timeframes too much recently.
65k has been the level this year. Until we get to say 70k, it's smarter to treat it like a ceiling.
I talked about ranging 60-65 and I think that's ultimately how you have to play this until one breaks.
Most of the shorts at range lows have been washed out so I'm not too worried of a short squeeze or anything, although algo momentum buying can always screw you on these types of trades.
As BTC approaches 65 I'll try a blind short and see what happens.
Likely long OI building up today on the move up (bottom pane).
Spot CVD(yellow line on 2nd to bottom pane) remains depressed, futures CVD(blue line) up, meaning it could just be temp longs for a daytrade up.
I think I've been caught up in the lower timeframes too much recently.
65k has been the level this year. Until we get to say 70k, it's smarter to treat it like a ceiling.
I talked about ranging 60-65 and I think that's ultimately how you have to play this until one breaks.
$MU
Every dip in AI has been a buy so far because AI capex continued to grow and the earnings have been good so the underlying company was doing well.
One worry now is AI capex may slow due to companies possibly overbuying, making future outlook a bit worrying.
I'd been thinking about 62400 as an underside retest short but ultimately didn't end up taking it
It got established as the Feb low, but it's been way too flimsy for me to risk
In hindsight it worked so far, but I think it's better Sharpe if I don't take these kinds of levels
Plan at 60k
If 59.8k breaches and reclaims, then long there
If it goes straight to 59.1k, then long there
Complete invalidation is 57.7k but honestly probably cutting before it hits 58 flat since I'd want a higher low held
Also not a fan of leverage building up here just under the level. A lot of times it can be shorts piling in for a continuation but if there's not much momentum it can explode upwards like it did a couple days ago on MSTR news.
I'd been thinking about 62400 as an underside retest short but ultimately didn't end up taking it
It got established as the Feb low, but it's been way too flimsy for me to risk
In hindsight it worked so far, but I think it's better Sharpe if I don't take these kinds of levels
@allnightynight same same. the move feels really fragile. if we break below 64200 again I might look for an underside retest after some acceptance below. 65 right above doesnt seem that great R:R for longs atm anyway.
@allnightynight yeah I put my SL below the sideways action we had in ETH after the recovery from Saylor news at like 1780. i guess its something.
you looking at any other entries atm? I might sit by for a while and wait for 65 to break or something
I know its OTC so the prices are elevated but with how consistently he's buying top of the range he might as well have bought on books and maybe tried to force price higher lol
62400 broken. Now looking for some continuation/acceptance and a pullback maybe from a little higher before I bid to get a bit more confidence it's not a false breakout.
I only put up an order for ETH instead of BTC to minimize Saylor risk and because ETH was bouncing with way more momentum. Seems to have been the right call so far.