ANNOUNCEMENT: The Data Dump is getting a show.
Join @david_kitchen and @gdula13 every Monday at 11am ET on the Late-Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel for player usage insights, injury rundowns, and more.
It all starts this Monday: https://t.co/UkeJYT8wnb
How much did Week 1 actually tell you in fantasy football?
I pulled every season since 2011 and took the end-of-season top-24 QB/TE and top-48 RB/WR. Then I asked how well a player's PPG through any given week lines up with his season-long PPG.
Week 1 alone (R^2): 0.17 at QB, 0.24 at RB, 0.14 at WR, 0.19 at TE.
And those are technically generous, because season-long PPG includes Week 1. Some of that correlation is Week 1 predicting itself. Take it out (correlate Week 1 to Weeks 2 onward) and you get 0.05 at QB, 0.13 at RB, 0.04 at WR, 0.07 at TE.
Said another way, a top-48 receiver's opener explains about 4% of what he does the rest of the year.
Relax.
@LateRoundQB What's your advice for coping with a week one high pick loss? Emotions being one thing, but what's the process mode? A backup may have contingent upside and a fine temp sub for the starter, but what else do we look for? The same elsewhere to diversify long term value?
@JasonMoore There's an interview somewhere with Madden by GameSpot where he talked about how the game spent years trying to copy the NFL, and then it went the other way and the NFL started copying the game (watch stats view on Prime Video today - for example). He was SO proud.