Numa

🇦🇷🧉 💻 Web3 Problem solver 📚 Economist, Data Scientist

[Numa @_0numa]

@CarlosMaslaton @aleberco "El incremento de la valuación no es ganancia derivada de la producción del PBI"? Entonces si SpaceX tenía bases en cualquier otro país del mundo y un estado de la tecnología distinto hubiese tenido un delta de crecimiento exactamente igual?

[Numa @_0numa]

Full analysis with methodology, Brier Scores, and interactive dashboard:

- https://t.co/eHNhJiPGVM
- https://t.co/ObZSFn8zIm

All data is on-chain, all queries are public. Verify it yourself.

[Numa @_0numa]

When a prediction market says "60% chance" — does YES actually happen 60% of the time?

I tested this across 113,823 resolved markets on @trylimitless.

The answer blew me away. 🧵

[Numa @_0numa]

This has real implications:

→ If you're using prediction market prices for decision-making, you can trust them as probabilities
→ If you're building on top of prediction markets, the data quality is good

[Numa @_0numa]

Full Medium post with methodology and all findings:
https://t.co/G6VWGAKcD8

Interactive dashboard on @Dune (all queries public):
https://t.co/ObZSFn8zIm

Built with on-chain data from @trylimitless

[Numa @_0numa]

Everyone measures prediction markets by TVL and volume.

Nobody measures whether the predictions are actually good.

I analyzed 113,823 markets on @trylimitless to answer a different question: how good is the demand?

Full analysis ↓

[Numa @_0numa]

What this means for protocol design:
1. Optimize for trades per market, not just number of markets
2. Shorter durations = faster convergence (hourly > weekly)
3. Markets near 50/50 are where the crowd proves its skill

Depth > breadth.

[Numa @_0numa]

@Miguel_Boggiano No era que venían a terminar con eso? Mantengan un discurso, mamarrachos

[Numa @_0numa]

@JMilei @madorni La economía parece que es la ciencia de los que creen saber matemática pero no les da para ser matemáticos. Si los agentes fueran racionales, estos tomarían los argumentos utilizados previamente en acusaciones a otros agentes y se darían cuenta que es un hecho de corrupción.

[Numa @_0numa]

@dieguitodulsan @GeroCostaa @bel_bozzolo @Minnuccisol Vivo a 4, por si necesitan postre

[Numa @_0numa]

@JMilei El pormenor: que era un rug pull 🤦🏻‍♂️