"AI is like oil." Chamath's latest take on All-In is the simplest explanation of why AI pricing is about to collapse.
He said think of one million AI tokens as one barrel of intelligence.
Anthropic sells that barrel for $56. OpenAI sells it for $26. Elon sells it for $1. Zuck sells it for $1.50. Google sells it for $1. The Chinese sell it for 50 cents.
Same barrel. Wildly different prices.
His point: "If you've made a bet around one of these folks selling extremely expensive barrels of intelligence, you may run into some downstream
difficulty."
The capability gap between the expensive models and the cheap ones is shrinking every month. The pricing gap hasn't caught up yet. When it does, someone's margins collapse.
This is the AI pricing reckoning nobody wants to talk about.
“At some point you reach a point of no return where re-opening of Strait is too late to avoid shifting inflation/interest rate expectations. That is now probably a matter of weeks away. This realization could provide the pretext for stocks to retest lows.” - Connor Broadley
*FOX: TRUMP SAYS MULLING TAKING OVER OIL IF NO IRAN DEAL
*TRUMP SAYS HE COULD GET DEAL W/ IRAN BY TOMORROW: FOX NEWS
*TRUMP SAYS NEGOTIATORS FOR IRAN GRANTED AMNESTY FOR NOW: FOX
*TRUMP MULLS 'BLOWING EVERYTHING UP' IF NO IRAN DEAL 'FAST': FOX
⚡️Ken Griffin is surfacing what insiders have already internalized: the dollar cannot be stabilized through fiscal discipline, monetary policy, or structural reform.
The deficit path is unfixable through normal means. The only remaining lever is productivity escape velocity.
The AI bet is not optional. It’s the last viable mechanism to outrun the collapse of sovereign credibility. The logic is simple:
•Debt levels are irredeemable.
•Rates can’t rise without detonating the treasury.
•Real growth is structurally constrained.
•Inflation targeting has failed to re-anchor long-term expectations.
•Political consensus is shattered.
So the regime pivots to a new pillar: generalized intelligence as sovereign subsidy. AI as a tool to compress costs, accelerate tax base expansion, and defer collapse. Not by paying down the debt. By re-denominating trust.
If AI generates a new surplus curve before the credibility window closes, the system survives in a new form. If it fails, the sovereign structure disintegrates under its own promises.
They aren’t betting on AI because it’s flashy.
They’re betting on it because nothing else is left.
Rick Rieder is now the odds-on favorite to become the next Fed Chairman.
The two clips below show he is:
- Motivated to cut rates much lower
- Fully aware of fiscal dominance
- Eager to use the Fed’s balance sheet in “innovative ways”
TLDR: You don’t own enough hard assets.
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