2026 I will share my trading journey publicly.
I’ll share:
* Trades I take (wins & losses)
* Mistakes I make
* Psychology & discipline lessons
* Market thoughts on NQ / FX / BTC
No fake PnL. No signals.
Follow if you want real trading.
Couldn't make it to 80k. Scaled some spot out above first target 73/74, and the rest all out once we rejected on the daily back into range. 80k is a question of if not when but sub 61k is a question of when not if. So for me as a spot buyer, selling 70's and rebuying sub 61 nets me 20%+ more BTC. No-brainer for me
My trading when it comes to NQ is pretty discretionary. This yields me better net gain, smoother equity curve, better WR and lower DD periods compared to a mechanical approach.
I attribute this purely to time and experience in the markets as well as refinement of psychology over time. That is truly one of the hardest journeys.
As time goes on and I develop as a trader, I realise more and more that all I need is conviction in a clear draw on price - where it's heading.
I then need to see intent and momentum towards that draw. I'm not interesting in engaging in chop.
After that, I'm not TOO fussed and nitpicky as to how and where I get on board as long as it makes sense from a risk management perspective.
I'm also not looking for much after that high probability draw has been hit.
So breaking it down:
1 - Clear Draw on Price for directional bias
2 - Show of intention to get there
3 - SL placement for at least 1:1.3 ish RR.
March has been a BE month for me over in FX. Negative month so far over in futures. That's the reality of trading no one talks about. But a negative month doesn't mean a red quarter and a red quarter doesn't mean a red year. A red year doesn't mean you're forever doomed and unprofitable. IF you zoom out and lengthen your time horizon, the only thing between you and failure is quitting. As long as you keep going.. tactically reviewing what went wrong in a bad month and what went well during a good one.. Refining yourself and your trading bit by bit. Progress may seem untangible and invisible but when it comes it will come fast and you will think to yourself just a few months ago you were barely profitable, now you've had your first 5 figure month... And the same will happen when you have your first 6 figure month.
Couldn't make it to 80k. Scaled some spot out above first target 73/74, and the rest all out once we rejected on the daily back into range. 80k is a question of if not when but sub 61k is a question of when not if. So for me as a spot buyer, selling 70's and rebuying sub 61 nets me 20%+ more BTC. No-brainer for me
BTC Expectation over the coming few days/weeks. Seasonality suggests we get the rally going into March. I'm expecting downside from above blue levels to new lows going into Summer.
BTC Expectation over the coming few days/weeks. Seasonality suggests we get the rally going into March. I'm expecting downside from above blue levels to new lows going into Summer.
In bull markets we always go higher than everyone thought we would at the cycle lows.
In bear markets we always go lower than everyone thought we would at the cycle highs.
That's just how it works unfortunately. At 120k, many thought we'd never see below 100k again. Others thought 60-70k would be the lowest we see in a bear. Some thought 50% drop + a wick lower from ATH max = 55-60k because this time BTC has higher market cap. Barely anyone thought 40k or so was at all realistic. I believe we will bottom around their - BTC balanced price.
As price goes lower you see people adjust their bottom targets thats just emotion, they'll keep adjusting lower and all get front ran because they're too scared to buy when we're then anyway.
Whether you're in the "4-year cycle is still a thing" club or not, here's how you can capitalise regardless:
Don't buy based off of time alone or price alone but rather buy based off both.
Every time price trades below 65k, you switch on daily DCA. Buys are based off of price. This is in case the bottom comes in sooner than q4 2026 as per 4 year cycle theory
If we're still down in the dumps, you buy a big chunk in oct-nov 2026 because if we are still following the 4 year cycle then the bottom will be around then.