Alex Bogdan

Surveys, research, methodology, Hackney, nature
Works at @IpsosUK. Views = α + β1*genetics + β2*upbringing + β3*education + β4*media +... +βn*mood. Also my own.

[Ipsos Scotland @IpsosScotland]

New @IpsosScotland post-election poll findings, out today, show a third of Scottish voters only made their minds up in the final week of the campaign, with 1 in 10 deciding on polling day itself. For more findings, see https://t.co/GXEWzF93bU

[Ipsos in the UK @Ipsos_in_the_UK]

Andy Burnham is most likely to be seen as having what it takes to be a good PM (28%). 🥇

Farage and Badenoch aren't far behind (both 24%) but Burnham's net rating of 0 is stronger than Farage's -33 and Badenoch's -18.

[Ipsos in the UK @Ipsos_in_the_UK]

Half (51%) of the public see a vote for the Green Party as a wasted vote in a General Election. 🗳️

[Ipsos in the UK @Ipsos_in_the_UK]

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos

📊Reform UK +7 point lead over Labour (+2 since April) halting the steady decline in their vote share since September.

📊The Greens are -3 since last month, whilst Labour are up +1.

[Owen Winter @OwenWntr]

Labour's vote share fell by more than 30pts in the most working class wards compared with around 10pts in the least working class

[Alex Bogdan @_AlexBogdan]

Conservatives saving Whitewebbs would be quite the turn of events for current campaigners, many of them ex Corbyn-era Labour. "the enemies of my enemies" I guess...

[Alex Bogdan @_AlexBogdan]

Am fascinated by idiosyncratic policy changes that come from political upheaval. In Hackney, Labour only really lost power in '68, long enough to save de Beauvoir which every Hackneyite equally admires for its architecture & hates for the absurd house prices. from @HackneySociety

[Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley]

Interesting from @EnfieldDispatch on how Greens plan to work w/ a minority Conservative council to stop Labour house building plans. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

Feel there could be a tension between Green nimby-ism vs housing concerns of younger voters.

[Alex Bogdan @_AlexBogdan]

Angela Rayner is not wrong in saying Labour 'are in danger of becoming a party of the well-off'. In April @Ipsos_in_the_UK had Labour leading among the Comfortably off and Financially stable segments, and 4th!! among those Just coping or Financially vulnerable.

[Angela Rayner @AngelaRayner]

Our party has suffered a historic defeat.

Many good Labour colleagues have lost their seats despite working hard for those they represented. We have lost good Labour administrations and lost the chance for more.

What we are doing isn’t working, and it needs to change. This may be our last chance.

The Labour Party must now live up to our name: we must be the party of working people.

We’ve heard the same on the doorstep as we’ve seen in the polls - the cost of living is the top issue for voters of all parties. People have turned to populists and nationalists because we have not done enough to fix it.

Living standards are barely higher than they were a decade and a half ago. People feel hopeless - that the cost of living crisis will never end, and now they see oil and gas companies use global instability to post record profits.

Once again, ordinary people are paying the price for decisions they didn’t make. It’s no wonder that across the UK, working people feel the system is rigged against them.

Things can be so much better than this. Countries including Spain and Canada have shown that economies can grow and people can thrive when governments stay true to labour and social democratic values and put people first. We need to learn from that.

In London, we lost young people who fear they will never afford a home. In my patch and across the north, we lost working people whose wages are too low and costs too high. In Scotland and Wales, people do not currently see Labour as the answer. 

We are in danger of becoming a party of the well-off, not working people.

The Peter Mandelson scandal showed a toxic culture of cronyism. 

Decisions like cutting winter fuel allowance just weren’t what people expected from a Labour government.

For too long, successive governments have allowed wealth and power to concentrate at the top without a plan to ensure the benefits of economic growth are shared fairly. The result is an economy that does not work for the majority, with wealth concentrated in too few hands. This level of inequality, alongside squeezed living standards, is the outcome of a model built on deregulation, privatisation, and trickle-down economics.

But we have the chance to fix this. 

1/2

[Will Hayward @WillHayCardiff]

Plaid don't have a majority in the Welsh Parliament.

So how will they form a Government?

Let's breakdown where we go from here...

[Ipsos in the UK @Ipsos_in_the_UK]

“If there was a political party called “none of the above” they’d be doing very well today.”

CEO Kelly Beaver MBE on @SkyNews this morning breaking down the political landscape surrounding the local elections.

@SkyNewsPolitics

[Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley]

Timely piece from @Ipsos_in_the_UK whizz kid @Ben_Roff17 on why Andy Burnham’s leadership pitch is increasingly hard for Labour to ignore.

The numbers are the numbers

https://t.co/0DP162bTlA

[Ipsos Scotland @IpsosScotland]

"Reform UK's support actually looks the firmest of any of the parties in Scotland."

Managing Director @EmilyIpsosScot breaks down Holyrood's landscape as the counting begins👇

@BBCScotlandNews @BBCPolitics @BBCNews

[Alex Bogdan @_AlexBogdan]

@MattChorley @scottygb @kateferguson4 @mrstevenallen @bbc5live

[Ipsos Scotland @IpsosScotland]

NEW Holyrood voting intention from @IpsosScotland and @STVNews

🟡The SNP are comfortably ahead on 35%, -4 from 26-31 March

🔴Second place is too close to call: Labour on 20% (+5), Reform UK close behind on 18% (+3) while Conservatives trail on 11% (N/C) tied with Lib Dems (+1)

[Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot]

SNP lead on the regional list with 26%, ahead of Reform UK on 18%, Greens on 17% and Labour on 15%.

This could be the worst ever performance at a Scottish election for both Labour and the Conservatives.

And it could be a breakthrough election for the Scottish Greens.

[Emily Gray @EmilyIpsosScot]

SCOTTISH ELECTION 2026 FINAL POLL from @IpsosScotland @STVNews

SNP out in front on 35% of constituency vote - though down 4 points compared with the first week of the campaign.

Too close to call between Labour and Reform UK for 2nd place on the constituency vote...

[Ipsos in the UK @Ipsos_in_the_UK]

36% think it is clear what Keir Starmer stands for (+1 from Sep ’25) but over half (55%) think is not clear (+2) 👉 https://t.co/oHiQe3DAsy

📊 60% think it is clear what Nigel Farage stands for (-4), 30% not clear (+5)

📊 45% think it is clear what Kemi Badenoch stands for (+12), 43% think it is not clear (-8)

📊 43% think it is clear what Zack Polanski stands for (+8), 41% think it not clear (0)

📊 39% think it is clear what Ed Davey stands for (+6), 45% think it is not clear (-2)

[Ipsos in the UK @Ipsos_in_the_UK]

Nigel Farage is seen as the party leader who most understands the problems facing Britain (38%).

Farage also leads on having the right plans for Britain (28%), followed by Starmer and Badenoch (24%).

Full breakdown👉 https://t.co/iHHYDOuN83

[Alex Wickham @alexwickham]

Labour’s problem in a chart via Ipsos. Burnham the only alternative with any public backing whatsoever and even that is tepid. ‘None of them’ way more popular.

[Ipsos Scotland @IpsosScotland]

The SNP appear most in tune with electorate - 32% of Scots consider their plans for Scotland to be ‘about right’.

Views on Scottish Labour’s plans are more evenly split, whereas Reform UK’s plans are most likely to be considered too radical.