Aria

Light roast coffee, deep conversations, and a good playlist. Let’s see if you can keep up. ☕️✨

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

The head of “Bitcoin Strategy��� for a publicly traded company recently DM’d me to say that his team have been using this document as a reference.

If you haven’t already, I invite you to go through and read it.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

3 things:

1. $STRC at ~$75 has zero impact on the short-term solvency of $MSTR.

All it means is that Strategy temporarily can't use $STRC to raise capital.

2. There is an extremely high probability that $STRC will eventually move back to par.

When it does, all of the drama on X will be forgotten again.

3. The thesis hasn't changed.

Keep calm and carry on.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

We are now seeing the exact dynamics I warned about last year, as per the quoted post.

The fear around $MSTR stems from a structural shift in its business model.

The old model was centred around converts that weren't due for 4-5 years.

That meant that the real-time price of $BTC and $MSTR had no immediate direct impact to the operational integrity of the company.

The new model is centred around preferreds that carry ongoing dividend obligations that must be fulfilled.

That means that the real-time price of $BTC and $MSTR now do have an immediate direct impact to the operational integrity of the company.

Neither model is flawless. Both models come with trade-offs. And both models influence the psychology of the market differently.

And we’re now seeing the psychological consequences of the new model play out in real time.

Whether justified or not, this perception of immediacy can create reflexive fear that starts to resemble a bank run.

This is exactly why a 4–5 year USD Reserve matters.

You have to overcompensate for market irrationality by building a large enough reserve so that weakness can never be questioned in the first place.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

Salute to all the $MSTR bulls who refuse to get emotional and start pointing fingers and instead take responsibility for their own decisions.

It’s time like these, when sentiment is at its lowest, that reveal people’s true character.

Still long.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

The scenario I laid out for $MSTR in the attached post is unfolding in real-time.

Strategy's top priority right now should be to build the USD Reserve.

As you know, I've been advocating for at least 4-5 years' worth of dividend coverage.

There are many reasons for that, but in short, the entire game of credit is built on confidence.

The moment investors smell weakness, it's over.

So defense is the best form of offense.

With that in mind, Strategy needs to demonstrate that it can meet its dividend obligations for the next 4-5 years *regardless of what happens to Bitcoin or $MSTR.*

A reserve of that size would strengthen investor confidence, secure the company's survival for at least the medium term and give it valuable strategic flexibility.

Until Digital Credit fully matures, selling Bitcoin to fund dividend obligations is not a viable option.

Whether justified or not, the market is conditioned to interpret it as a sign of weakness, which would undermine the confidence that the entire model depends on.

In credit markets, survival often comes down to perception.

You never want to be forced into an action.

You always want to operate from a position of strength with complete control over your decisions.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

Incredible to see how many people have turned a simple multiple-choice question into a mental gymnastics routine.

The $MSTR thesis comes down to one basic question:

Do you believe Bitcoin's ARR will exceed Strategy's Cost of Capital?

A. Yes
B. No

Simple.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

Some constructive suggestions for @saylor, @phongle and @Strategy.

1. Minimise the memes.

They may generate attention but right now they are damaging the company’s reputation and credibility more than building it.

The strategy is strong enough to stand on its own. It doesn't need unnecessary hype to sell it.

2. Minimise the use of language like "risk-free rate" around $STRC.

Let the market come to that conclusion as and when it feels necessary.

3. Minimise marketing $STRC as effectively a money-market equivalent until it actually behaves like one.

Alternatively, create an entirely new category.

You are the Category King of Digital Credit. You make the rules.

4. Minimise the active use of volatility-based metrics and the Sharpe ratio as proof of $STRC’s success.

They are misleading and create unnecessary attack surfaces.

The product is not even a year old. Let the track record mature before declaring victory.

5. Maximise conservatism.

The best way to protect the strategy to build credibility, reduce unnecessary attack surfaces and let the strategy itself do the talking.

Under-promise. Over-deliver.

6. Stay humble. Stack sats.

Strategy was at its best when it was quietly going about its business and executing without drawing unwanted attention.

This is the way.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

I cannot say with certainty that Digital Credit and $STRC are going to succeed.

However, having studied history, what I can say with certainty is that every paradigm shift is met with doubt and dismissal.

And then when it finally becomes understood, the skeptics turn into believers.

John Rockefeller and Standard Oil serve as a perfect example.

It took decades for society to fully understand and appreciate the value of Refined Oil.

During the early 1800’s, everyone thought Rockefeller was a madman and a charlatan.

By the late 1800’s, oil had become one of the most important commodities in the world, Standard Oil had become the largest Oil Refinery in the world and Rockefeller had become the richest man in the world.

Today, everyone thinks Saylor is a madman and a charlatan.

In a few decades, Bitcoin is likely to be one of the most important commodities in the world, Strategy is likely to be the largest Bitcoin Refinery in the world and Saylor is likely to be one of the richest men in the world.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

Guys, this quote cannot be overstated:

“The hardest thing in business is not seeing the future. It is surviving long enough to build it.”

I have zero doubt that Saylor is simultaneously aware of three things:

1. The scale of the opportunity in front of him with Bitcoin and Digital Credit.

2. The real possibility that Strategy could fail before that opportunity is fully realised for reasons within and without the company’s control.

3. The understanding that if he can ensure Strategy survives the transition period to the point where Bitcoin and Digital Credit are fully accepted and mature ecosystems, that Strategy will become one of the defining companies of the 21st Century.

The next 5-10 years will define the next 50-100 years for $MSTR.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

Since Strategy made preferred shares (Digital Credit) its primary capital-raising tool, many people still debate whether they are truly better than convertible bonds.

The truth is that both have trade-offs.

However, on net, preferred shares are the stronger instrument because they offer more attractive properties than convertibles for the following reasons:

1. Duration Risk

Perpetual preferred shares never mature, so the company avoids the repayment deadlines that come with convertible bonds.

2. Maturity Risk

Perpetual preferred shares carry no maturity risk, since there’s no point in time where the capital must be returned, unlike convertible bonds.

3. Refinancing Risk

Perpetual preferred shares eliminate refinancing risk since they don’t expire, unlike convertible bonds which force the company to refinance or repay the debt.

4. Flexibility

Perpetual preferred shares offer more flexibility since dividends payments can be paused during stressful periods, unlike convertible bonds where interest is mandatory.

5. Publicly Traded

Perpetual preferred shares are publicly traded, giving the company access to a wider investor base and better liquidity, unlike typical convertible bonds.

6. Qualify As ROC

Perpetual preferred shares qualify as ROC, enabling better capital efficiency, unlike convertible bonds that do not.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

In 2018, Tesla was the most hated stock on Wall Street. Everyone thought it was going to go bankrupt and that Elon Musk was a fraud. $TSLA is now a +$1T company.

In 2026, Strategy is one of the most hated stocks on Wall Street. Everyone thinks it’s going to get liquidated and that Michael Saylor is a fraud. $MSTR will become a +$1T company.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

Imagine you’re a 70-year-old retiree that wants exposure to Bitcoin.

Owning spot Bitcoin is probably a BAD idea because of the volatility.

Owning a product that strips away the volatility that pays you an 11.25% yield is probably a GOOD idea.

That’s what $STRC is.

And that’s why you need an operating company like Strategy that engineers and distributes it.

Strategy attracts capital that otherwise wouldn’t flow into Bitcoin.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

Over the next 5-10+ years, I’m betting on:

1. $BTC becoming a $20T-$200T network.

2. $MSTR becoming a $1T-$10T company.

3. $PATH becoming a $100B-$1T company.

4. $DUO becoming a $100B-$1T company.

5. $WMTX becoming a $20B-$200B network.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

Someone recently asked me at what point does the thesis change on $MSTR that would compel me to either reevaluate or acknowledge I am wrong.

This is a good and fair question and one every investor should be prepared to answer about any investment.

And the answer is simple: If I don’t continue seeing a meaningful increase in Bitcoin Per Share over the next 5+ years which for me would be at minimum >50%.

As most of you will know by now, I am completely unattached from my investments and have no problem pivoting when necessary.

I would sell $MSTR tomorrow if I felt it was necessary.

But nothing has changed and when you have a long-term time horizon you don’t get lost in short-term noise.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

Apparently AI is going to kill Duolingo, yet $DUOL has more than TRIPLED its DAUs since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

https://t.co/WoRShPluzj

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

Introducing Saylor Derangement Syndrome (SDS).

Saylor Derangement Syndrome (SDS) is a term used to describe negative reactions to the founder and Chairman of Strategy ($MSTR), Michael Saylor, that are characterised as irrational and completely disconnected from reality.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

A summary of my thoughts on Thursday’s $MSTR 2025 Q4 earnings call:

1. This call had a totally different energy and tone to previous calls. Much more relaxed. No bells and whistles.

It didn’t feel like Saylor and co were attempting to manufacture hype like certain past quarters.

The focus was on just clear information, straight answers and directly addressing investor confusion and concerns. How it should be.

2. Saylor explicitly stated that he doesn’t intend on continuing to tap the common ATM when trading at a low mNAV.

Recent issuance was framed as improving creditworthiness. Good news.

3. $STRC is the killer app and primary focus. Strategy will use it to scale capital raises and increase Bitcoin Per Share.

4. Bitcoin price needs to fall to $8,000 for Strategy's Bitcoin reserves to equal their net debt.

I give that scenario <1% probability. Black Swan event.

Unless you think that's a possibility then the company is in an extremely strong position balance sheet wise.

5. The USD Reserve can be used flexibly to fund dividends, fulfil debt obligations (including converts) or for any other corporate purposes.

6. Multiple paths to deal with any converts that don’t convert. Strategy can either pay them off, refinance or restructure.

7. I found it interesting that there was less emphasis on BTC $ Gain and "earnings" multiples and more emphasis on Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in this call compared to past calls. This is good.

As many of you will know, I don’t like Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. Bitcoin Yield is far more cleaner, honest and appropriate.

7. Phong Le deserves more credit. He communicates exceptionally well and is clearly competent.

All in all, the call was just what the doctor ordered considering current market conditions.

Ignore the FUD. Focus on being productive with your time and energy.

Strategy is a $10T+ company. 100-200x potential.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

I have given my Ultimate Investment Thesis Guide For World Mobile ($WMTX) a complete overhaul over the last few weeks.

If you’re looking for a single source that contains everything you need to know about the World Mobile thesis, this is it. Includes:

✅ 1-Pager Summary
🧠 Mind Map
📖 Full Investment Thesis
➕ And More

View and download it for FREE here: https://t.co/nmfeqlNnDg

Tip: For the best viewing experience, use a desktop.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

The huge irony about the Strategy business model is that it’s so simple that it becomes easy to completely miss it.

To illustrate just how simple it is, I put together a video explaining it in less than 2 minutes — 94 seconds to be precise — with an animated graphic.

YouTube: https://t.co/ZTvTd453V4