Deep dive into $DOT
Weekly chart
@Polkadot continues to fall without any reaction during the entire bear market by constantly making lower lows and lower highs. Does this mean that dot is a bad project? Some projects survive bear markets hard, and investing in these projects for the long term really requires either insider knowledge or big balls. There are many altcoins in the market and some of them seem stronger than dot, like dydx, which I shared in the previous update. Why is dydx moving sideways while dot un is constantly declining? because it attracts much more attention from investors and shows that it is a strong project. I don't know much about dot because before I can invest in a project, the charts must look nice. It seems like it will drop to the Polkadot listing price, which is currently in ATL. Even in the 2023 echo bubble rise, he couldn't make x2. I do not have a long-term investment plan for Dot, but I will use long setups that I will capture on the daily chart here because when the bull market starts, the whole market does not move at the same pace at the same time, everyone has their time. (money flows from one altcoin to another unless new money enters the market). That's why I will use dot to accumulate more coins in my long-term bag, but maybe dot will show that it is a really good project in the next 1-year horizontal market process, we do not know, but I can comment on what I see now.
Daily chart
Even though dot constantly makes lower lows and lower highs, this structure will eventually break down and experience a relief rally, but if someone tells you at what price this will happen, they are lying. If the current price is the bottom, there are big difficulties ahead. First of all, it fell below 2 equal low and has not been reclaimed yet, but there is an increase on the open interest side, and spot cvd is rising. This may indicate that dot accepts these prices as the bottom, but to be sure of this as htf, the $4.8 level must be passed and both ema50 and $4.2 levels must be maintained. If such a move comes, of course I will be happy to go dot long and my target will be high. But if the dot cannot make such a move and continues to fall by staying below EMA50, the only place that will attract my attention will be $3 and below. Being patient is your biggest weapon in this game.
Deep dive into #Bitcoin
Monthly chart
We are in a period where we have left the price capitulation phase behind but are still in the time capitulation phase. The drop from 48k to 15k was very painful and took many large funds and investors with it. Currently, we are the only ones left in the market. I thought that the decline to 15k would continue to 10k after the upward yearly fakeout movement in 2023, but with the price breaking 25k, i am sure it won't happen because of time and there is now a bottom on the bitcoin side and time capitulation will continue for the next 6-12 months for altcoins. I couldn't catch the 2023 rise, but I could predict that this fakeout would hurt a lot. I waited patiently and now most altcoins are even lower than bitcoin's 15k price. If you want to make a long-term investment, you cannot buy anything without a weekly chart range or bullish structure. Many of you may ask why you didn't buy at 15k-20k, but at that time there was nothing on the weekly chart that interested me and I can ask you this question as to why you didn't buy at 40k or 30k. The important thing is to catch the big bull movement, but of course, if you can benefit from such rises, it is very nice. When I look at the chart with a clean and clear mind right now, we can say that the 2023 echo bubble rise is over with last month's candle closing. ( i will explain why in weekly chart) With this rise, the price tested the important 30k level, and since this was the first test, it made 30k resistance even weaker and it received a nice reaction decline. Don't forget when price test a big level or breakout, it always gives a reaction and every test makes that level weaker and weaker. I think the next time or two we test 30k, the price will not stop and I think the rise will continue until 40k, but when will it test 30k again? I think the market's risk appetite is low right now and I'm pretty sure the 2023 rally is over. But when we look at the monthly chart, I can say that we are now at time capitulation phase and if the price reaches around 20k, your long-term plans should definitely be ready. Bitcoin has seen a bottom and now the smart thing is to find out which projects will lead the bull, but it is necessary to buy these projects at good prices, so we should analyze btc and eth.
Weekly chart
I keep my analysis fairly simple and straightforward so that I can understand what's in front of me. if you make multiple edges and try to implement them all at the same time you will fail because over time you want all your edges to support you but such a market can only happen when you are the market maker. so I suggest you analyze using 2-3 edge no matter how simple or complex it is that works and saves you money. Currently, the price will close its 4th weekly below ema21 and this is one of the first negatives for me in the long term. See how the price has consistently stayed below in the 2021-2022 decline and how it reacted from zones 1 and 2 with the start of the 2023 echo bubble. These regions were both range mid and range high regions, but you can also determine these deck levels using only ema21. Currently, the price is below ema21 and I do not think we will see 40k until the price goes above ema21. In addition, the price is testing the 25k-17k range high, which we have been in for 270 days, for the 2nd time. And why is this a bad sign? Just as testing the same 30k many times weakens that resistance zone, testing 25k a second time, even when there is so much bullish ETF and grayscale news, weakens the 25k support, and being below 21 weekly will increase sell pressure. When you look at 2019, you can see the same movements taking place. Even though the price is quite bearish at the moment, I can say that it is still at support, so it is very wrong to look at a short position at these prices, but if the price closes weekly under 25k and makes a bearish retest of this breakout, then I will look at the short position, but right now my only thought is which coins to accumulate for the long term. I think the time to be bearish in the market is over. Yes, I am still short period, but when it reaches the prices I want, I will make my purchases and move on to the waiting phase. I think when looking at the weekly chart, I can say that the target regions are 21.5k (mid range) and 18-19k (range low, untested inefficiency, and demand regions). I will divide my purchases into pieces and wait for these 2 levels to come.
Daily chart
When we apply our monthly and weekly thoughts to the daily chart, I think the future price movements of bitcoin will somehow be like this. I don't think there will be a rapid drop to 20k unless there is any big event, but I think the new bottom movement that will occur after 15k will be either around 21k or 19k. If the price makes a bullish structure at 21k and passes the daily ema50-21 and rises above the weekly ema21, I think the bottom has come, but this will most likely not happen and I think we will see 20k gold in bitcoin. Although short-term bearish, I do not think that these long-term prices will be seen again.
Analyst: The Lack Of Changes In The Policy Statement Was A Surprise, And While There Was A Slight Increase In The Hawkish Tone Regarding Economic Growth, The Overall Message Is That The Fed Is Neither Dismissing Nor Confirming The Possibility Of Another Rate Hike.
#PriceAction
The Standard Setup
Simple setup that you can easily use in any market. Takes the emphasis of using Ranges, Supply/Demand alongside what a three tap is
Small write up to cover:
- How to format ranges
- Demand/Supply
- Three tap importance
Lets get into it