OPEN YOUR BOOK

Student of the market | Not an expert - just trying to understand the PSX puzzle 🧩

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

📢 Disclaimer

All stock related content shared here threads, insights, or opinions is for educational purposes only. This is not investment advice.

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

🧵 The Illusion of Liquidity: Float Squeezes, the Math of #LSEVL

You don't need a short squeeze to go parabolic. You just need a "Float Squeeze."

Insiders are quietly locking up a billions-heavy vault on the PSX, and retail is completely missing it.
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[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

@NaqiSaad22681 Glad it helped.

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

As part of their official demerger and listing scheme, LSEVL was legally bound by the SECP and the courts to classify these stakes as Available for Sale. The regulator does not want former regional broker networks maintaining permanent, concentrated control over national market .

[Saad Naqi Khan @NaqiSaad22681]

@_Iam_Pakistani Why lSEVL selling CDC stake If I understood correctly ? Is it because of any conflict ?

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

@MXoreyz58721 Glad it helped.

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

Dear Sir, we are actually on the exact same page!
I think there was a slight misreading of the thread.

The Rs 28B is the total Enterprise Value (EV). At a Rs 70 cap, LSEVL’s stake fetches Rs 2.8B gross.

1/n https://t.co/nPDXT2T77Z

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

@r_radar1 It is literally just one upper lock away from being fully priced!

Meanwhile, the ~Rs 2.5B net cash from the CDC stake alone covers almost #LSEVL's entire market cap. For PSX, the upside is capped. For LSEVL, it's a fundamental repricing event.

2/2

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

🧵 🚨BREAKING: The CDC IPO is Here.

The conversation just turned into reality.
The Central Depository Company (CDC) is officially marching toward an IPO / Offer for Sale (OFS).

📄 Material information attached in the first comment.
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[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

@r_radar1 100% accurate! #PSX is the biggest shareholder. But here is the secret: Asymmetry.

PSX is already a Rs 40 Billion market cap giant. I mapped out the fair value for PSX, and even if you slap a massive premium on it, its ceiling is around Rs 43-44B.
1/2

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

There is a conflict of interest, but it is not what is forcing the CDC sale LSEVL is the legacy holding company of the old LHR Exchange. When the regional exchanges (LHR, KHI,ISB) merged to create the unified PSX, legacy infrastructure assets like CDC and NCCPL were parked inside

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

@NaqiSaad22681 As part of their official demerger and listing scheme, LSEVL was legally bound by the SECP and the courts to classify these stakes as Available for Sale."The regulator does not want former regional broker networks maintaining permanent, concentrated control over national market .

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

At first glance, CDC is being valued at a significantly lower earnings multiple.

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

@NaqiSaad22681 There is a conflict of interest, but it is not what is forcing the CDC sale
LSEVL is the legacy holding company of the old LHR Exchange. When the regional exchanges (LHR, KHI,ISB) merged to create the unified PSX, legacy infrastructure assets like CDC and NCCPL were parked inside

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

Markets ultimately decide valuation.

The OFS only establishes a starting point.

Price discovery begins after listing.

📈

#PSX #CDC #Investing #PakistanStockExchange #IPO #PriceDiscovery #ValueInvesting #Multibagger #HiddenValue

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

At the proposed OFS price of Rs. 70:

📊 CDC Earnings Yield = ~7.9%

📊 PSX Earnings Yield = ~5.0%

Interesting difference.

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

CDC Economics:

💵 Net Profit Margin: ~33%

🏛️ Central securities depository

🔒 Monopoly infrastructure

⚙️ Custody, trustee and settlement ecosystem

Higher profitability.

Lower earnings multiple.

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

If capital-market activity, investor participation, and industry growth have benefited PSX so significantly during FY26...

Then investors should at least ask whether other financial infrastructure businesses have also experienced operating growth over the same period.

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[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

That's what makes the comparison interesting.

🏛️ CDC valuation → based on FY25 earnings

🏛️ PSX valuation → based on FY26 performance + live market expectations

Very different reference points.

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

PSX's latest 9M FY26 results showed:

📈 Revenue Growth: +21.8%

🚀 Operating Profit Growth: +180%

💰 Operating Margin: 29.9%

The market is valuing PSX based on these improved economics.

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

One important point most investors are missing:

The CDC valuation at the OFS is based on FY25 closing numbers.

Meanwhile, the PSX valuation is being compared using latest 9M FY26 financials and live market prices.

That's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

🧵 Pakistan's Two Financial Infrastructure Monopolies: A Simple Comparison 👀

Most investors compare banks with banks.

Very few compare monopolies with monopolies.

Let's look at the numbers.

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[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

🧵 🚨BREAKING: The CDC IPO is Here.

The conversation just turned into reality.
The Central Depository Company (CDC) is officially marching toward an IPO / Offer for Sale (OFS).

📄 Material information attached in the first comment.
👇

[OPEN YOUR BOOK @_Iam_Pakistani]

Since their declared book value is around Rs 800 Million, the capital gain is Rs 2B.
Deduct the 12.5% CGT (~Rs 250M), and we get exactly the ~Rs 2.5 Billion net cash injection I mentioned!

2/n