Kindbird

[Adam Grant @AdamMGrant]

Don’t follow your passion. Follow your talent and find your purpose.

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

CORRECTION: Dale 2048 🇺🇸. I have young children whom I would like to see grow up before I get assassinated.

FWIW, throughout history, people who “red pill” the system tend to get assassinated: the Gracchi brothers, Abraham Lincoln, Mahatma Gandhi, Huey Long, JFK, MLK, etc.

THEY—the billionaires and trillionaires who have purchased controlling stakes in Congress, the White House, the Supreme (and lower) Court(s), AND THE MEDIA—have a deeply vested interest in preventing the following:

1. Campaign finance reform so that every citizen’s vote actually counts as one vote, rather than preserving the current system whereby the top 1% pay top dollar to rig election outcomes, legislation, and regulation on their behalf AT OUR CHILDREN’S EXPENSE.

2. A single flat tax that treats every dollar of realized income the same.

3. No tax loopholes to favor certain activities and interests, or to promote certain behaviors. As far as I’m concerned, the desire for people to procreate with desirable partners and take adequate care of their families—both while alive and posthumously—is genetic. You don’t need to corrupt the tax code to promote these outcomes. Human beings will do these things regardless of whether there are tax “incentives” for them—which we know largely favor the rich.

4. Trust-busting to reduce the power of monopolies, duopolies, and monopsonies over our economy and promote inclusive innovation.

5. Mandating that the Fed target stability in the US dollar vs. a basket of commodities or a neutral reserve asset like gold, OR removing the Fed’s “maximum employment” mandate—the mandate that causes it to consistently justify debasing our currency and perpetuating the historic Cantillon effect that is destroying our society—if returning to a harder currency regime is too painful.

These are the kinds of “radical” (read: common-sense) ideas that can get me killed if I’m not careful—hence waiting until 2048.

“The Lord is my strength and my defense; he has become my salvation.”
—Exodus 15:2

Jesus Christ and I love you and your children. Change your attitude towards our corrupt political system for them before it’s too late.

Reminder: The US has already fought a violent, bloody revolution and a violent, bloody civil war because The People have generally agreed with me and not with The Privileged Few. Unfortunately, history confirms that revolutions and wars are ALWAYS much worse for BOTH sides than everyone realizes at the outset.

I believe God pulled me up from the bottom 0.001% of the K-shaped US society to bring glory to Him by helping prevent this tragic outcome—or by helping our wonderful nation heal after it. I pray every day that I’ll be successful in either mission.

With love,
—Skipper ❤️+🤍+💙=💜

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

My heart is legitimately broken to see that the post below only has a handful of reposts. If my work ethic and work product have blessed you at all since the GFC when my career on global Wall Street began, please share it now. This message must spread throughout our society ASAP.

Banding together as purple Christians and rising above the red Republican vs. blue Democrat tribal nonsense is the ONLY way we will overcome the tyranny of The Privileged Few paying top dollar to rig election outcomes, legislation, and regulation on their behalf at the expense of The People.

The alternative is another American Revolution or Civil War that YOUR sons and daughters will die in. If you disagree, it’s simply because you have not read enough Scripture or studied enough history to arrive at this obvious conclusion. We are not special.

Banding together as Christians—not as manipulated-by-the-media Republicans or manipulated-by-the-media Democrats—for peaceful reform is a far more desirable outcome.

Jesus Christ and I love you,
—Skipper ❤️+🤍+💙=💜

[Kevin Henderson @KHendersonCo]

I’ll never forget one of the best parenting lessons my wife and I received, shortly after moving to San Diego in 2012.

Our oldest had just started first grade and a couple weeks into the school year, as my wife said goodbye to him at the classroom door, he realized he had forgotten an assignment he had to turn in.

My wife, on instinct, said she’d run home and bring it back to drop off at the office so he didn’t receive a 0 on the assignment.

A very smart and well meaning parent, overhearing this, pulled her aside and, somewhat sheepishly - no doubt worried about overstepping - strongly encouraged my wife not to do that.

Her reasoning was simple:

💡Teach him what the consequences of failure feel like when the stakes are ultimately meaningless (it was first grade, after all…). Otherwise you’ll be doing the same thing when they’re a junior in High School.

So she didn’t.

He got a 0 and his first and only “red” card of the year.

He was super upset. Then he got over it.

That’s happened a handful of times with all of our kids. Mostly when they were smaller. Occasionally as teens.

And it’s the one parenting lesson that ALWAYS comes to kind when friends with younger kids ask say “You guys are so lucky to have such responsible teenagers.”

Thanks, Karen, but it’s not luck.

Stop. Saving. Your. Kids. From. Failure. (physical safety excepted…)

Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.

[Brute Lesnar @BuddyNoLove]

For my forever learners.

[Stocktwits @Stocktwits]

🟢 LIVE - WEEKEND RIP JAM SESSION WITH BEN, EMIL & @JAM_CROISSANT: BURNING DOWN THE $VIX https://t.co/TR0psvxDhs

[Ken Nelson @atKenNelson]

Painful un-improving Achilles injury for over 2 years, "healed" broken fingers weak/sore year later. I tried everything, nothing helped much.

@MuscleScience protocols (30 second isometric no pain load levels with 2 minute rest for 10 minutes) has been a game changer for both in a very small amount of time and with little effort.

Recommended.

[darkpool algos 🌟 @brooklynCalls]

## TLDR: Technical Analyst Tom McClellan's Market Outlook

**Main Thesis:** 2025 is expected to be a bear market year, with current strength likely being just a bear market rally.

**Key Technical Indicators:**

1. **Oil-Stock Correlation (10-year lead):** Crude oil's collapse in 2014 suggests stocks should decline dramatically starting 2024-2025, with potential bottom around January 2026.

2. **Breadth Divergence:** Despite getting a bullish "Zwag Breadth Thrust" signal (historically reliable since 1950), this strength is coming at the "wrong time" - similar patterns in 2015 and 2022 led to lower lows after initial rallies.

3. **Money Supply (M2/GDP):** One-year lag effect suggests payback period for money supply contraction should hit around July-October 2025.

4. **Bond Yields Rising:** Gold prices lead bond yields by 20.5 months - with gold above $3,000, expect significantly higher yields through at least 2026. June may offer temporary relief.

5. **Reverse Repos:** Daily 5-day leading indicator shows recent liquidity drainage, suggesting near-term market weakness.

**Investment Recommendations:**
- **Avoid:** Long-duration bonds (except for June trading opportunity)
- **Consider:** Grains, fertilizer stocks, agricultural equipment (John Deere) - gold leads grain prices by 12 months
- **Strategy:** "T-bill and chill" for most investors until 2026
- **Timing:** June might be good for refinancing; expect better buying opportunities later in 2025

**Bottom Line:** Despite recent market strength and positive breadth signals, McClellan expects this to prove a bear market rally in what should be a challenging 2025, with much better opportunities emerging in 2026-2028.

[Michael McNair @michaeljmcnair]

I think the administration has waited to unveil the return of the foreign withholding tax for for several reasons.

First, reinstating the withholding tax requires congressional approval (they can tear up the tax treaties unilaterally and can possibly use IEEPA in some cases). Unlike tariffs, which the administration could impose immediately, removing the foreign tax exemption/reinstating the foreign withholding tax requires a legislative process. My view has always been that they’d wait to unveil this measure as close as possible to introducing their tax bill (the “big beautiful bill”), minimizing the window for investor panic and lobbying efforts. If they tipped their hand early, they’d risk prolonged market anxiety and intense opposition from affected investors and foreign governments before they can actually get resolution on the bill.

Second, the administration is negotiating with foreign govts and potentially offering targeted carve outs. So the outcome of these negotiations is crucial bc it directly affects the revenue potential from reinstating the tax. They need clarity on how much revenue will actually come in before finalizing the details of the broader tax bill.

A critical side note: Bessent has explicitly committed to shrinking the budget deficit by 1% of GDP/yr. Given the tax cuts they’ve already outlined, they need a substantial revenue item to offset deficit expansion. I estimated that this withholding tax could generate approximately $360 billion annually in tax revenue, or $3.6 trillion over the ten-year window used by the CBO. Though this is if it is done universally. So carve outs would change the math some. Either way it’s a substantial revenue item and I think it’s critical to the administrations tax bill plans.

[Kindbird @_Kindbird]

@icebergy Time

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

One of the ways to best ways to improve portfolio diversification is to allocate to alpha strategies that can shift long & short depending on the macro environment rather than trying to do it yourself.

https://t.co/d7dTGXVkgx

[Michael Ashton @inflation_guy]

Announcing USDi...Inflation-Linked Cash https://t.co/dfGxl4LzJL

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

The last 2 weeks, #ES_F relief bounced 260 points. For it to continue, ES had to hold 5720 Friday: Support of a 2 week bear flag & 4 month megaphone. It failed & we sold

Plan next week: Recovery of 5620 sees rally to 5711, 5720. Unless 5720 clears, 5565 then 5515 are up next

[Kindbird @_Kindbird]

@fejau_inc https://t.co/5mcZD8xHEn

[Adam Grant @AdamMGrant]

The best way to improve your writing is not always to write more. It's often to read more.

Instead of just enjoying the content, study the form. Pay attention to how they set up ideas, structure paragraphs, signpost transitions, and shape sentences.

Role models elevate art.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

If you didn’t already understand the current White House’s approach from their budget, Bessent is telling you 🔊 loud & clear, if you care to listen👂.

This is what he is saying in plain English:

- They want to slow demand in the real economy & hence slow inflation, by distributing less 💰 to people, via slowing wage growth and less social services to American’s in the median income on down?

How?

A/ Cut Government Employment
B/ Cut Medicare
C/ Cut Snap Food assistance and School Lunches
D/ Cut Low income Housing Assistance

Then, as these cuts take hold in the next 3-6 months…

- Meanwhile, they plan to in Equal amounts Increase supply side stimulus to get ‘private Industry moving,’ this will send money to the top 0.1% of the top wage earners. Not increasing inflation, while stimulating economic growth.

How?

A/ Massive Corporate Tax Cuts
B/ Gut the IRS and corporate financial oversight to reduce taxes further.
C/ Deregulate to allow corporations to operate untethered to increase profitability.
D/ Drill baby Drill

The demand side policies take effect quicker than the supply side, So… as cyclical deflation takes hold in 6 months or so… they plan to respond quickly with:

Loose Monetary Policy switching back from QT-> QE

[Schwab Network @SchwabNetwork]

Is further downside ahead for markets? 😬

🥐 𝗟𝗜𝗩𝗘 ➡️ With stocks $SPX moving lower post-Nvidia $NVDA earnings, @jam_croissant joins @OJRenick to talk volatility $VIX and detail what he sees as potential risks to the market: https://t.co/Cb9lVT3FgQ

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

This month's Pro to Pro interview with our friend @jam_croissant is now live.

We discussed the likelihood of additional populism, the likelihood of a fiscal crisis in this Fourth Turning, and more.

You can watch the replay here:

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

On Jan 11, I wrote #ES_F built a 2 month megaphone with 5810 support, 6280 resistance. I was looking for support to hold & push to res. +350 points so far

Plan Next Week: 6115, 6066 are lowest bulls want to see on dip. This keeps 6184, 6228, 6280 live. 6066 fails, we sell deeper