Trader

Active Trader #NewYork #Riyadh #dubai

[Trader @_MBG1]

3/3
Has this scenario happened before?
Yes, partially:
• 2024: Sudden rate hike by BOJ → Major Yen Carry Trade unwind and global market volatility
• 2025-2026: Continued rate hikes + Japanese interventions involving sales of US Treasuries
• 2008: Global financial crisis linked to Carry Trade unwinding
The scenario has repeated… but it hasn’t yet turned into a full-blown crisis.
#Yen #USDebt #GlobalEconomy #Japan #Fed

[Trader @_MBG1]

🧵 1/3
This is very interesting:
• Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury debt
• To combat yen depreciation, the Bank of Japan must raise interest rates
• But raising rates means Japan will sell US Treasuries to buy yen
• This year: $10 trillion of US debt is maturing and needs refinancing

[Trader @_MBG1]

2/3
If Japan sells large amounts of Treasuries:
→ Yields (interest rates) on new US debt will rise
→ A big problem for the United States
That’s why the Federal Reserve (Powell previously) tends to support Japan to avoid this scenario.
This is a dangerous Feedback Loop.

[Trader @_MBG1]

One strait closed. Two worlds emerged. The old factory model ran on cheap Asian labour + stable Gulf energy. The new one runs on domestic energy + political alignment with the dollar. The Americas have both. The divergence isn't starting. It's already in the data. /end 🧵

[Trader @_MBG1]

The world has one Strait. 33km wide. 20% of global oil passes through it. When Iran closed it on Feb 28, it didn't just spike oil prices. It split the global economy into two worlds. 🧵 One Strait. Two Worlds. (a thread)

[Trader @_MBG1]

Thesis scorecard (honest version): ✅ Mechanism (energy asymmetry): 9/10 — confirmed ✅ Post-Feb 28 divergence: 8/10 — real data ⚠️ Return numbers cited: 5/10 — inflated 🔴 Risk disclosure: 2/10 — tariff risk missing Use as directional framing. Not a precision brief.

[Trader @_MBG1]

😏

[Trader @_MBG1]

$SEI breaking out above resistance 🚀 institutional money flowing in, this could run 📈. #QQQ

[Trader @_MBG1]

$SATS just broke above resistance

Weeks of accumulation → now expansion.
If follow-through comes, this could start a strong trend.

Anyone else watching this breakout?
#QQQ

[Trader @_MBG1]

$LASR breaking out above resistance — volume surging, momentum is real 🚀📈
Let’s see what happened #QQQ

[Trader @_MBG1]

📈 GET READY FOR THE CRAZIEST WEEK OF Q4!
Oct 27 – 31 will be massive for markets:
💥 Fed rate decision + Powell press conference
💥 GDP, PCE, Jobless Claims
💥 Earnings from the trillion-dollar club:
$AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $XOM $V $UNH $LLY
Volatility is coming. Buckle up! 🚀
#StockMarket #Earnings #FOMC #GDP #PCE #Investing