This is what's inside MacroLens every week.
→ Central bank stance, scored
→ Institutional positioning (COT)
→ Retail sentiment + contrarian setups
Comment MACRO to get your free AI macro report.
https://t.co/bMelo17uHs
5 rate decisions. 3 days.
Fed, BoJ, BoE, RBA, SNB — June 15-18.
The US economy won't slow. Japan hikes into it. Switzerland cuts away from it.
The most loaded week of the quarter.
🧵 Thread below.
#macro#forex#trading
The outliers are where the trade is.
BoJ is set to hike to 1.00%, the highest in 15 years — a hawkish move unwinds carry and squeezes the yen.
SNB is the only G10 bank with room to cut: CESI at -1.1, best in G10.
→ Policy divergence is widening.
#forex
This is what's inside MacroLens every week.
→ NFP, CPI and central bank policy tracked weekly
→ COT positioning, what institutions are building
→ AI macro analysis per currency, every Friday
Comment MACRO to get your free AI macro report.
https://t.co/bMelo17uHs
172,000 jobs added in May. Double the forecast. Markets sold off. Good news crashed your portfolio. Here's the mechanism.
🧵 Thread below.
#macro#forex#USD
It wasn't just NFP.
ISM Manufacturing: 54.0 vs 53.3 expected.
ISM Services: 54.5 vs 53.7 expected.
Hourly wages: +0.3% m/m, still rising.
USD hit 4-week highs. EUR, GBP, JPY all at 4-week lows simultaneously.
→ Rate cuts faded in real time.
#DXY#EURUSD
This is the conflict we track every week on MacroLens:
→ COT positioning across all asset classes
→ Backtested signals with win rates
→ AI macro analysis across G10
→ Economic calendar with next week's catalysts
Comment MACRO to get your free AI macro report. Or pick your currency
→ https://t.co/PjahQ2emxs
S&P, Nasdaq, and Nikkei all broke yearly highs this week.
Institutions responded by building their largest short positions of the year.
Two independent COT signals say the opposite. One side is wrong. NFP June 5 decides.
🧵 Thread below.
#macro#COT#SP500
But the positioning data tells a different story:
- Copper → SPX: when institutions accumulate copper, SPX rises 81.7% of cases within 63 days — avg +3.0% (124 obs). Active 3 consecutive weeks.
- SPX direct: leveraged funds decreasing shorts → SPX rises 72.6% of cases within 42 days — avg +2.5% (96 obs).
Two independent signals. Same direction.
This is what's inside MacroLens every week.
→ Full COT breakdown: leveraged funds, asset managers, retail
→ AI macro analysis per currency with live data context → Backtested COT signals with win rates & historical avg
Comment "MACRO" to get your free AI macro report. https://t.co/PjahQ2dOHU
Institutions just hit maximum dollar long positioning. Retail went +42% net long EUR in the same week. One of them is wrong. The COT data is clear.
→ Thread below.
🧵
#forex#eurusd#DXY
Meanwhile retail EUR bias jumped from +24% to +42%
net long in one week — at 4-week price lows (1.1605).
USD CESI: +4.7 (was -3.6 four weeks ago).
EUR CESI: -4.2. ECB trapped hawkish into contraction.
Fed Chair Warsh: no cuts. CPI 3.8% y/y. PPI +1.4% m/m. → Data momentum, CB credibility, and COT all point the same way.
WTI at ~$102. Hormuz effectively closed since late February. Gold at ~$4,700 — down from the Jan ATH but holding.
Real yields winning short-term. Oil is the macro thermostat right now.
Above $100 → hawkish CB, dollar bid, gold under pressure.
#oil#gold#commodities
Four markets. Four different stories. S&P at record highs. Oil above $100. BTC below $77k. Dollar bid. They're not contradicting each other — they're all pointing to the same thing.
🧵
#macro#trading#markets
Dollar bid across the board. Not because the US is strong — because everyone else is more stuck.
ECB at 2.00%. BoE at 3.75%. BoJ still behind the curve.
DXY above 99. Energy shock → inflation stays high → nobody cuts → dollar wins by default.
#forex#DXY#dollar