Martin Kelly

Middle East / Global Maritime. Head of Advisory at EOS Risk Group

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

Iran claimed to have attacked another MSC vessel as part of the ongoing response to US strikes at Qeshm and US Hellfire strike to disable a tanker heading to Kharg.

Iran's response has so far included drone and missile attacks against Kuwait and Bahrain, with unconfirmed reports of attacks in the UAE (although no sirens).

MSC PANAYA is at port Khalifa Bin Salman, Bahrain.

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Trump and Iran trying to reach a deal

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

CENTCOM says U.S. forces disabled the Botswana flagged tanker M/T Lexie after it ignored repeated warnings while heading toward Iran’s Kharg Island.

A Hellfire missile struck the vessel’s engine room, preventing it from reaching port.

Since the blockade began on April 13, the U.S. says it has disabled 6 vessels and redirected 122 others.

The last time the US disabled a vessel with Hellfire, Iran struck an MSC off Iraq.

Simultaneously, explosions reported at Qeshm and sirens ringing across Kuwait following Iranian missile and drone attack.

This pattern is becoming common. The US is offering 'Assistance' to ships transiting the SoH via persistent air cover using fast jets, A-10 & Apache. The US is pre-emptively striking Iranian launch sites, whilst commercial ships are convoying through SoH at night.

In response, Iran has attacked a US airbase in kuwait at least 3 times.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

@MenchOsint This location is 6 days old. I think it was inside the Gulf.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

@anmut @lookner No. It's double hull. Vessel breaches the hull then explodes

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

@mhmiranusa Unclear?

MSC has huge Israel affiliation - hence the number of MSC ships hit by Iran and the Houthis.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

MSC SARISKY V was struck with what is likely a USV in Iraqi territorial waters after it had completed unloading its cargo at the port of Umm Qasr in southern Iraq.

MSC remains a target for Iran owing to Israeli affiliation.

Earlier in the year, SAFESEA VISHNU was struck in the same region also by USV.

#iran #gulf #maritime #maritimesecurity

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

@MenchOsint Seems so - at the waterline. Iran has previous of using USVs in this part of the Gulf.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

@MOSSADil No it's not. The US made clear that unless it's a US ship that is attacked, then it is not considered a breach of the ceasefire.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

@DogeBonkBonker @calvinfroedge That isn't the case.

Insurance rates are elevated, but not the highest seen during the conflict. At thee peak, War Risk was 10% of hull.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

@OMAN_MSC Please provide an accurate location.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

⚠️ Possible Mine Sighting

Oman MRCC:

Suspected naval mine spotted floating west of the Inshore Traffic Zone in the Strait of Hormuz — inside Omani territorial waters.

#Straitofhormuz #Iran #maritime #maritimesecurity

[Dow @mark_dow]

Trump has won this war 7 times.

He’s negotiated a peace settlement 12 times.

And he’s opened the Strait of Hormuz at least 4 times.

What more do you want from him?

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

Despite the imminence of an imminently imminent ceasefire/MoU/[peace deal last weekend, there is still no deal - and won't be a deal because Iran won't give up its Uranium, or control of the Strait of Hormuz.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

Overnight, the US struck Iranian targets on Bandar Abbas after Iran launched 4 drones towards a US tanker that attempted to transit outbound via SoH with AIS switched off. In response, Iran launched multiple drones and ballistic missiles towards Kuwait.

Iran also turned around at least 4 ships over the last 24hrs.

Despite the imminence of an imminently imminent ceasefire/MoU/[peace deal/insert random unlikely term to represent progress here], the situation between the US and Iran is worsening, and the risk to shipping has not changed (with caveats).

Broadly speaking, since the last last last ceasefire agreement on 8 April, the US has attacked Iranian targets at Bandar Abbas, Sirik & Jasm on 2 or 3 different occasions. Iran has attacked US Warships on at least 2 occasions. Iran has attacked UAE, KSA & Kuwait multiple times, and has continued to attack commercial shipping.

The 'sub-threshold' benchmark for what constitutes a breach of the ceasefire is moving further from what would be expected. A non-breach of the ceasefire already constitutes attacks against commercial shipping and Gulf States.

The key takeaway is that Iran still controls the SoH, Iran is unlikely to concede control of the SoH, and so there is little room for progress.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

@TradeLinesEF Not really. Limpet mines can be applied whilst the ship is at Fujairah.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

UKMTO has received a report of an incident 60NM east of Muscat, Oman.

The Master of a Tanker reports of an external explosion, Port side aft close to the waterline.
The crew and vessel are safe, although the Master reports some bunker fuel has discharged into the sea.

From the initial report and reported location of the blast; it would appear this attack was conducted using a USV or Limpet mine.