How Pakistan made the world over 3 trillion dollars richer
On April 7, the world edged toward Trump's 8pm ultimatum that "a whole civilization will die tonight." By mid-afternoon, Polymarket gave less than a 5% chance for a ceasefire. But then in a flurry of last-minute diplomacy led by Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif, ceasefire odds shifted from near-impossibility to 100%, as both U.S. and Iranian leadership publicly acknowledged the important role played by Pakistan.
The sharp shift in probability of ceasefire from near-zero to certainty, allows us to estimate cleanly the market value of Pakistan's successful diplomacy. There was a sharp jump of 2.9% in S&P500 around the ceasefire announcement. The reaction was similar the world over.
Global markets represent about $125T, so a 2.9% jump represents a gain of 3.6 trillion dollars for the world. Pakistan helped create TEN times its own GDP for the world!
For me, the best part is not the trillions of dollar, but seeing Pakistan on the world stage as a peace maker.
I hope Pakistan runs with this new identity by promoting peace not only abroad, but also at home. That means moving away from politics of division and exclusion, and treating every citizen as its own.
Arshad Nadeem, your victory is not just a medal; it is a moment of pride for every Pakistani 🇵🇰
Congratulations on your Gold Medal win at the Asian Athletics Championship 2025.
The nation is proud of you. You inspire millions.
{@ArshadOlympian1}
#ArshadNadeem
Disgusted and sick to my stomach to hear about the horrific attack on Christians in Faisalabad. This brutality has no place in any society. Severely lacking Unity in Diversity.
Pakistan, we must do better. 💔 #StopReligiousViolence#ProtectMinorities#Jaranwala#Faisalabad
@Chainless_Slave You're absolutely right! It's unfortunate that our amazing sisters, who embody Islamic traditional values and fulfill their gender roles beautifully, are often overlooked and not given the recognition they truly deserve
@cjwerleman Ah, the endless horizons of Modi's Saffron terrorism! It's quite amusing how international organizations choose to stay mum on such matters, but are quick to have a lot to say about the Russian crackdown on Ukraine. Priorities, right?"
@ashoswai Indeed, third parties often exploit internal crises of states for their own interests. It's essential to consider the broader implications of such actions. A well-thought response is crucial 🌐
You can now run a sovereign rollup on Bitcoin.
Announcing the first research integration of Bitcoin as a data availability layer for sovereign rollups. 🧵
https://t.co/HpebxIz3fE