#GOLD#xauusd#FX
Right now, I'm taking a break from trading to enjoy my personal life with my family, but I'll return to trading when needed. 😊 However, if you need advice, feel free to send me a direct message. 😊
#GOLD#xauusd
A nearly vertical surge. It shot up rapidly from around 4325-4330 to nearly 4390, and now it's consolidating around 4385 in a high price range. Both the 5-minute and 15-minute charts show a "steady buying after the news," significantly breaking above the moving averages. This is a typical spike after the CPI. The direction is clear, but it has already extended significantly. The current level of 4385 is in the "digestion zone of the high price range," and chasing it here is the most dangerous.
• Upper: 4390-4395 (recent high, dotted line)
• Current position: around 4385 (near the dotted line)
• Lower reference: around 4370 (short-term MA), below that is 4360, 4350
Short-term forecast:
• Main: Sideways to slight pullback around 4380-4390. If it can't break the high, it may pull back to 4370-4375 before deciding the next move.
• If it continues strongly, it could clearly exceed 4392 and head towards 4410. However, there's no need to chase it right now.
• If it weakens, a break below 4380 could lead to 4370, and if it breaks, a further drop to 4350 is possible.
Since it's right after a surge, it's easier to win by "waiting for a reaction" rather than "jumping in right now."
Dangerous entries (to avoid):
• Chasing long positions at 4388-4394 (catching the top)
• Buying during the spike
• Immediately shorting after just one bearish candle (there are still buy positions)
• Entering at a half-hearted position between 4378-4383
Relatively better scalping:
Long (only on dips):
• Wait: For a stop at 4370-4375 + confirmation of a bullish candle
• Stop loss: Below 4364
• Take profit 1: 4384-4386
• Take profit 2: 4390-4392
• Keep the range small. Don’t be greedy unless it accelerates again.
Short (selling on retracements):
• Wait: For a clear upper wick/bearish candle at 4392-4395, and after breaking below 4382
• Stop loss: Above 4398
• Take profit 1: 4376-4378
• Take profit 2: Around 4370
Right now, "not entering" is likely the correct approach. It's sufficient to wait for confirmation on whether it holds 4380 or breaks above 4392.
#GOLD#xauusd
Dangerous entry points to avoid (based on the current chart)
Right now, we are in a "waiting for a correction after a sharp rise," so the following are particularly risky.
1. Long positions chasing near 4430-4434
There is already a long upper wick in the high price area. Buying here is likely to result in "buying at the top." Avoid jumping in without confirming a breakout.
2. Immediate long positions on the dot line at 4426-4428
This is the line we are currently on. It may provide support, but it has not yet confirmed a "rebound." Jumping in suddenly here can easily get caught up in the moving averages just below.
3. Counter-trend long positions immediately after breaking below 4418-4422
Buying just because it seems "cheaper" the moment it breaks is dangerous. Momentum often continues until it breaks 4416. Wait for a confirmed bullish candle for a rebound.
4. Jumping in for long positions during an upward trend on the 5-minute chart
Buying during a series of bullish candles after 2 PM. It has already extended, so the profit margin is small and the stop-loss is close.
5. Immediate short positions the moment a bearish candle appears at 4434
Selling on just one bearish candle while the short-term moving averages are upward and buying is dominant is premature. Wait until it clearly breaks below 4428, or it is likely to be bought back and hunted.
6. Entry at a halfway point (like between 4428-4431)
A "nothing zone" that is neither support nor resistance. The stop-loss level becomes ambiguous, making it easy to incur unrealized losses.
Relatively better waiting strategies
• For long positions: Wait for a stop at 4422-4424 and confirmation of a bullish candle.
• For short positions: Wait for a clear rejection at 4432-4434 and a break below 4428.
• In both cases, it is safer to wait for "reaction after touching the line" rather than "the moment it touches the line.
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification (Current Chart)
Both the 5-minute and 15-minute charts show a strong upward push from around 4410. The recent high is about 4434, with a long upper wick appearing, and it is currently returning to around 4426 near the dot line.
• The blue moving average is trending upward, and the price is above it → The short-term structure still favors buying.
• However, there is an upper wick after a sharp rise on the 5-minute chart, so chasing here could easily lead to being stopped out.
• On the 15-minute chart, the rebound from the morning low (around 4390) is solid, but 4430-4434 is the immediate resistance.
The current position is in the "small pause after a rise" zone. If it holds firmly at 4424-4428, it could retest; if it breaks, there is a high possibility of pushing down to the MA cluster at 4416-4420.
Forecast (Short-term Scalping Assumption)
• Main Scenario: Maintain around 4424 and challenge 4432-4434 again. If it cannot break through, look for a selling opportunity on the retracement.
• Alternative: If it breaks below 4424, there will be a temporary adjustment to 4416-4420. If it stops there, aim for long again.
• Today's range estimate (on the chart): Upper 4434-4436, lower around 4412-4416. Unless there is significant news, it is likely to oscillate within this range.
Scalping Plan (Focusing on the 5-minute chart, aiming for small gains)
Long (Buying on Dips)
• Entry: Confirm a stop in decline at 4422-4425 (MA touch + bullish candle confirmation, or rebound near the dotted line at 4424).
• Stop Loss: Below 4416 (or below the recent low).
• Take Profit 1: 4429-4431 (just before).
• Take Profit 2: 4433-4434 (near the previous high, partial exit recommended).
• Target Range: About 5-10 dollars. Don’t be greedy.
Short (Selling on Retracements)
• Entry: Clear upper wick or bearish candle confirmation at 4430-4434, and start breaking below 4428.
• Stop Loss: Above 4437.
• Take Profit 1: 4424-4426.
• Take Profit 2: 4418-4420.
• Keep the range narrow as well. Since the momentum from the sharp rise remains, avoid jumping in without confirmation.
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification (Current Chart)
Both the 5-minute and 15-minute charts show a strong upward push from around 4410. The recent high is about 4434, with a long upper wick appearing, and it is currently returning to around 4426 near the dot line.
• The blue moving average is trending upward, and the price is above it → The short-term structure still favors buying.
• However, there is an upper wick after a sharp rise on the 5-minute chart, so chasing here could easily lead to being stopped out.
• On the 15-minute chart, the rebound from the morning low (around 4390) is solid, but 4430-4434 is the immediate resistance.
The current position is in the "small pause after a rise" zone. If it holds firmly at 4424-4428, it could retest; if it breaks, there is a high possibility of pushing down to the MA cluster at 4416-4420.
Forecast (Short-term Scalping Assumption)
• Main Scenario: Maintain around 4424 and challenge 4432-4434 again. If it cannot break through, look for a selling opportunity on the retracement.
• Alternative: If it breaks below 4424, there will be a temporary adjustment to 4416-4420. If it stops there, aim for long again.
• Today's range estimate (on the chart): Upper 4434-4436, lower around 4412-4416. Unless there is significant news, it is likely to oscillate within this range.
Scalping Plan (Focusing on the 5-minute chart, aiming for small gains)
Long (Buying on Dips)
• Entry: Confirm a stop in decline at 4422-4425 (MA touch + bullish candle confirmation, or rebound near the dotted line at 4424).
• Stop Loss: Below 4416 (or below the recent low).
• Take Profit 1: 4429-4431 (just before).
• Take Profit 2: 4433-4434 (near the previous high, partial exit recommended).
• Target Range: About 5-10 dollars. Don’t be greedy.
Short (Selling on Retracements)
• Entry: Clear upper wick or bearish candle confirmation at 4430-4434, and start breaking below 4428.
• Stop Loss: Above 4437.
• Take Profit 1: 4424-4426.
• Take Profit 2: 4418-4420.
• Keep the range narrow as well. Since the momentum from the sharp rise remains, avoid jumping in without confirmation.
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification Results
Currently around 4634, with a slight pullback from around 4655.
The blue moving average is trending upwards, indicating a continuation of the upward trend.
Scalping Plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Pullback Long (Priority)
• Entry: Confirm a rebound around 4620-4625 (near the blue moving average)
• Take Profit: 4650-4655 (+25-30 pips)
• Stop Loss: Below 4610
② Breakout Long
• Entry: Clearly break above 4650 and confirm momentum
• Take Profit: 4670-4675
• Stop Loss: Below 4635
③ Short-term Short (Counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of upper wicks or a pullback appear around 4660-4665
• Take Profit: 4635-4630
• Stop Loss: Above 4675
#GOLD#xauusd
Another hit! 🎯 The previous breakout chase has extended more than expected, reaching 4523. The momentum continues. Scalping plan (1-2 minutes expected): ① Pullback long (priority) • Entry: Confirm rebound around 4505-4510 • Take profit: 4535-4540 (+25-30 pips) • Stop loss: Below 4495 ② Breakout chase long • Entry: Clearly break above 4530 + confirm momentum • Take profit: 4550-4555 • Stop loss: Below 4510 ③ Short-term short (counter-trend) • Entry: If signs of upper wick or pullback appear at 4545-4550 • Take profit: 4520-4515 • Stop loss: Above 4560 Points • Since it's after a sharp rise, waiting for a pullback to enter is more stable.
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification Results
Currently around 4486, there has been a strong surge from the 4330 level.
The blue moving average has also turned upward, indicating a very strong momentum.
Scalping Plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Pullback Long (Priority)
• Entry: Confirm a rebound around 4465-4470 (near the red line)
• Take Profit: 4495-4500 (+25-30 pips)
• Stop Loss: Below 4455
② Breakout Long
• Entry: Clearly break above 4495 and confirm momentum
• Take Profit: 4515-4520
• Stop Loss: Below 4475
③ Short-term Short (Counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of an upper wick or reversal appear at 4500-4505
• Take Profit: 4475-4470
• Stop Loss: Above 4515
Points
• Since this is after a sharp rise, it is more stable to wait for a pullback rather than chasing.
• The red line at 4470 is likely to serve as short-term support.
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification Results
Currently around 4486, there has been a strong surge from the 4330 level.
The blue moving average has also turned upward, indicating a very strong momentum.
Scalping Plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Pullback Long (Priority)
• Entry: Confirm a rebound around 4465-4470 (near the red line)
• Take Profit: 4495-4500 (+25-30 pips)
• Stop Loss: Below 4455
② Breakout Long
• Entry: Clearly break above 4495 and confirm momentum
• Take Profit: 4515-4520
• Stop Loss: Below 4475
③ Short-term Short (Counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of an upper wick or reversal appear at 4500-4505
• Take Profit: 4475-4470
• Stop Loss: Above 4515
Points
• Since this is after a sharp rise, it is more stable to wait for a pullback rather than chasing.
• The red line at 4470 is likely to serve as short-term support.
Yes, that's exactly today's U.S. Treasury bond fundamentals. The Treasury announced it will double the liquidity support buyback in the long-term zone (10 to 30 years) from a maximum of $2 billion to a minimum of $4 billion, effective from September 9 to November 4. This comes as the 30-year bond yield had surged to its highest level since 2007 (around 5.33%), leading to a sharp rebound in long-term bonds. The 10-year yield dropped by 6 basis points, and the 30-year yield fell by about 9 to 10 basis points, flattening the curve. As a result, there was a straightforward sell-off of the dollar, with USDJPY dropping from the 159 yen range to the low 158s. Gold also jumped significantly. This signals an expansion in the scale of buybacks. Nice!
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification Results
Currently around 4357, it has firmly rebounded from the recent low range.
The blue moving average has also started to tilt slightly upwards, indicating a strong short-term recovery.
Scalping Plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Pullback Long (Priority)
• Entry: Confirm rebound around 4345-4350 (near the blue MA)
• Take Profit: 4370-4375 (+20-25 pips)
• Stop Loss: Below 4335
② Breakout Long
• Entry: Clearly break above 4365 + confirm momentum
• Take Profit: 4380-4385
• Stop Loss: Below 4350
③ Short-term Short (Counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of upper wicks or pullbacks appear at 4375-4380
• Take Profit: 4355-4350
• Stop Loss: Above 4390
Points
• Since this is a 1-2 minute scalp, a take profit of around 15-25 pips is sufficient.
• In the short term, the recovery is strong, so focusing on pullback longs is likely to be more stable.
• However, the overall trend is still in adjustment, so please avoid aggressive chasing.
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification Results
Currently around 4344, it has significantly declined from the recent high range.
The blue moving average is also downward, indicating a prevailing downward momentum.
Scalping Plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Short on Retracement (Priority)
• Entry: Confirm a pullback around 4350-4355 (near the blue MA)
• Take Profit: 4330-4325 (+20-25 pips)
• Stop Loss: Above 4365
② Short on Break Below
• Entry: Clearly break below 4330 + confirm momentum
• Take Profit: 4310-4305
• Stop Loss: Above 4345
③ Short-term Long (Counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of a lower wick or rebound appear around 4310-4305
• Take Profit: 4330-4335
• Stop Loss: Below 4295
Points
• Since it's a 1-2 minute scalp, a take profit of around 15-25 pips is sufficient.
• Given the downward phase, focusing on shorting on retracements tends to be more stable.
• The area around 4300 is a significant horizontal line, so if there is a rebound there, option ③ can also be considered.
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification Results
Currently around 4344, it has significantly declined from the recent high range.
The blue moving average is also downward, indicating a prevailing downward momentum.
Scalping Plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Short on Retracement (Priority)
• Entry: Confirm a pullback around 4350-4355 (near the blue MA)
• Take Profit: 4330-4325 (+20-25 pips)
• Stop Loss: Above 4365
② Short on Break Below
• Entry: Clearly break below 4330 + confirm momentum
• Take Profit: 4310-4305
• Stop Loss: Above 4345
③ Short-term Long (Counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of a lower wick or rebound appear around 4310-4305
• Take Profit: 4330-4335
• Stop Loss: Below 4295
Points
• Since it's a 1-2 minute scalp, a take profit of around 15-25 pips is sufficient.
• Given the downward phase, focusing on shorting on retracements tends to be more stable.
• The area around 4300 is a significant horizontal line, so if there is a rebound there, option ③ can also be considered.
#GOLD#xauusd
Once again, spot on! 🎯 Both the long position on the dip and the short position for the short term moved just as predicted. Scalping plan (1-2 minutes expected): 1. Long position on the dip (priority) • Entry: Confirm rebound around 4425-4430 • Take profit: 4445-4450 (+15-20 pips) • Stop loss: Below 4415 2. Long position after breaking above • Entry: Clearly break above 4450 and confirm momentum • Take profit: 4460-4465 • Stop loss: Below 4435 3. Short position for the short term (counter-trend) • Entry: If signs of upper wick or pullback appear at 4460-4465 • Take profit: 4445-4440 • Stop loss: Above 4470 Points • Since it's a 1-2 minute scalp, taking profit at 15-20 pips is sufficient. • If using a regular take profit style, focusing on 1 is more stable.
#GOLD#xauusd
Once again, spot on! 🎯 Just as we suggested last time with the "breakout long," it clearly broke above 4425 and reached over 4435. It really gained momentum.
Scalping plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Pullback long (priority)
• Entry: Confirm rebound around 4420-4425
• Take profit: 4440-4445 (+15-20 pips)
• Stop loss: Below 4410
② Breakout long
• Entry: After clearly breaking above 4440 and confirming momentum
• Take profit: 4450-4455
• Stop loss: Below 4425
③ Short-term short (counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of upper wicks or pullbacks appear at 4450-4455
• Take profit: 4435-4430
• Stop loss: Above 4460
Points
• Since it's a 1-2 minute scalp, taking profit at 15-20 pips is sufficient.
• If you prefer a regular take profit style, focusing on option ① tends to be more stable.
#GOLD#xauusd
Once again, spot on! 🎯 Just as we suggested last time with the "breakout long," it clearly broke above 4425 and reached over 4435. It really gained momentum.
Scalping plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Pullback long (priority)
• Entry: Confirm rebound around 4420-4425
• Take profit: 4440-4445 (+15-20 pips)
• Stop loss: Below 4410
② Breakout long
• Entry: After clearly breaking above 4440 and confirming momentum
• Take profit: 4450-4455
• Stop loss: Below 4425
③ Short-term short (counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of upper wicks or pullbacks appear at 4450-4455
• Take profit: 4435-4430
• Stop loss: Above 4460
Points
• Since it's a 1-2 minute scalp, taking profit at 15-20 pips is sufficient.
• If you prefer a regular take profit style, focusing on option ① tends to be more stable.
#GOLD#xauusd
Spot on! 🎯 Just as predicted last time, it rebounded strongly around 4395-4400 and reached 4415. It moved just as we forecasted. Scalping plan (1-2 minutes expected): ① Dip buy (priority) • Entry: Confirm rebound around 4405-4410 • Take profit: 4425-4430 (+15-20 pips) • Stop loss: Below 4395 ② Breakout buy • Entry: Clearly break above 4425 and confirm momentum • Take profit: 4435-4440 • Stop loss: Below 4410 ③ Short-term short (counter-trend) • Entry: If signs of upper wicks or pullbacks appear at 4435-4440 • Take profit: 4420-4415 • Stop loss: Above 4445 Points • Since it's a 1-2 minute scalp, taking profit of 15-20 pips is sufficient. • If using a regular take profit style, focusing on ① tends to be more stable.
#GOLD#xauusd
Spot on! 🎯 Just as predicted last time, it rebounded strongly around 4395-4400 and reached 4415. It moved just as we forecasted. Scalping plan (1-2 minutes expected): ① Dip buy (priority) • Entry: Confirm rebound around 4405-4410 • Take profit: 4425-4430 (+15-20 pips) • Stop loss: Below 4395 ② Breakout buy • Entry: Clearly break above 4425 and confirm momentum • Take profit: 4435-4440 • Stop loss: Below 4410 ③ Short-term short (counter-trend) • Entry: If signs of upper wicks or pullbacks appear at 4435-4440 • Take profit: 4420-4415 • Stop loss: Above 4445 Points • Since it's a 1-2 minute scalp, taking profit of 15-20 pips is sufficient. • If using a regular take profit style, focusing on ① tends to be more stable.
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification Results
Currently around 4408, slightly pulled back from the recent high and trending sideways.
The blue moving average is also becoming flatter.
Scalping Plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Pullback Long (Priority)
• Entry: Confirm rebound around 4395-4400
• Take Profit: 4415-4420 (+15-20 pips)
• Stop Loss: Below 4385
② Breakout Long
• Entry: Clearly break above 4415 and confirm momentum
• Take Profit: 4425-4430
• Stop Loss: Below 4400
③ Short-term Short (Counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of upper wicks or pullbacks appear around 4420-4425
• Take Profit: 4405-4400
• Stop Loss: Above 4435
Points
• Since this is a 1-2 minute scalp, a take profit of 15-20 pips is sufficient.
• As this is a correction phase, waiting for pullbacks rather than forcing trades tends to be more stable.
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification Results
Currently around 4408, slightly pulled back from the recent high and trending sideways.
The blue moving average is also becoming flatter.
Scalping Plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Pullback Long (Priority)
• Entry: Confirm rebound around 4395-4400
• Take Profit: 4415-4420 (+15-20 pips)
• Stop Loss: Below 4385
② Breakout Long
• Entry: Clearly break above 4415 and confirm momentum
• Take Profit: 4425-4430
• Stop Loss: Below 4400
③ Short-term Short (Counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of upper wicks or pullbacks appear around 4420-4425
• Take Profit: 4405-4400
• Stop Loss: Above 4435
Points
• Since this is a 1-2 minute scalp, a take profit of 15-20 pips is sufficient.
• As this is a correction phase, waiting for pullbacks rather than forcing trades tends to be more stable.
#GOLD#xauusd
As predicted last time, it has risen steadily from the dip, surpassing 4414. The forecast was accurate again. Scalping plan (assuming 1-2 minutes):
1. Long on the dip (priority)
• Entry: Confirm rebound around 4400-4405 (near the blue MA)
• Take profit: 4420-4425 (+15-20 pips)
• Stop loss: Below 4390
2. Long on breakout
• Entry: Clearly break above 4420 and confirm momentum
• Take profit: 4430-4435
• Stop loss: Below 4405
3. Short-term short (counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of upper wick or pullback appear at 4425-4430
• Take profit: 4410-4405
• Stop loss: Above 4435
Points
• Since it's a 1-2 minute scalp, taking profit at 15-20 pips is sufficient.
• If using a regular take profit style, focusing on option 1 tends to be more stable.
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification Results
Currently around 4404, it has recently risen to about 4416 before making a slight adjustment. The blue moving average is still trending upwards.
Scalping Plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Pullback Long (Priority)
• Entry: Confirm rebound around 4390-4395 (near the blue MA)
• Take Profit: 4410-4415 (+15-20 pips)
• Stop Loss: Below 4380
② Breakout Long
• Entry: Clearly break above 4410 and confirm momentum
• Take Profit: 4420-4425
• Stop Loss: Below 4395
③ Short-term Short (Counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of upper wicks or reversal appear around 4415-4420
• Take Profit: 4400-4395
• Stop Loss: Above 4425
Points
• Since this is a 1-2 minute scalp, a take profit of 15-20 pips is sufficient.
• If you prefer a regular cutting style, focusing on ① tends to be more stable.
#GOLD#xauusd
Verification Results
Currently around 4404, it has recently risen to about 4416 before making a slight adjustment. The blue moving average is still trending upwards.
Scalping Plan (1-2 minutes expected)
① Pullback Long (Priority)
• Entry: Confirm rebound around 4390-4395 (near the blue MA)
• Take Profit: 4410-4415 (+15-20 pips)
• Stop Loss: Below 4380
② Breakout Long
• Entry: Clearly break above 4410 and confirm momentum
• Take Profit: 4420-4425
• Stop Loss: Below 4395
③ Short-term Short (Counter-trend)
• Entry: If signs of upper wicks or reversal appear around 4415-4420
• Take Profit: 4400-4395
• Stop Loss: Above 4425
Points
• Since this is a 1-2 minute scalp, a take profit of 15-20 pips is sufficient.
• If you prefer a regular cutting style, focusing on ① tends to be more stable.
#GOLD#xauusd
Day trading plan (currently around 4400)
Since a strong upward trend continues, I will focus on buying on dips. This plan is intended for holding positions for a few hours to a day, unlike 1-2 minute scalping.
Main scenario: Buy on dips
• Entry zone: Around 4380-4395 (confirming a rebound near the blue moving average and horizontal support)
• Take profit 1: 4430-4440 (+40-50 pips)
• Take profit 2: 4460-4480
• Stop loss: Below 4365
Secondary scenario: Follow-up long on breakout
• Entry: Clearly break above 4420 and confirm continuation of momentum
• Take profit: 4450-4470
• Stop loss: Below 4400
Counter-trend short (secondary)
• Entry: If clear upper wicks or signs of reversal appear at 4450-4460
• Take profit: 4420-4400
• Stop loss: Above 4475
Points
• Since this is day trading, aim for partial take profits of around 40-80 pips while letting the rest run.
• Recommend lighter position sizes (especially during adjustment phases after sharp rises).
• The horizontal support levels in the 4300s tend to function as strong support.
For now, I think prioritizing buy on dips is fine.