#GOLD#xauusd
Next week's (June 29 - July 3) gold (XAUUSD) analysis and forecast
Current price ≈ around 3,982 USD, with a strong downward trend continuing into next week.
Overall outlook
Main scenario (60% probability): Continued downward adjustment
• Downward pressure is likely to persist next week.
• Expected range: 3,930 - 4,080 USD
• The central value is expected to fluctuate around 3,950 - 4,020, with a high likelihood of retesting the low 3,900s.
Key levels
• Strong resistance: 4,059 → 4,088 → 4,100
• Major support: 3,959 → 3,930 → 3,900 (breaking below this level could accelerate the decline)
• Rebound target: If it exceeds 4,000, there is a possibility of testing 4,059.
Strategy suggestion (assuming a bearish outlook)
• Continue short positions: Add on a rebound to 4,000 - 4,020, with a target of 3,930 - 3,900
• Take profit targets: Partially take profit around 3,959 and 3,930
• Caution: There is a risk of a sharp rebound due to FOMC-related events or important indicators. Consider stop-losses below 3,930 or above 4,100.
June 29 (Mon) 3,960–4,030 likely to be volatile during NY hours. Position adjustments at the start of the week.
June 30 (Tue) 3,940–4,020 U.S. economic indicators available. Higher volatility expected.
July 1 (Wed) 3,930–4,050 Significant impact from FOMC-related events (caution advised).
July 2 (Thu) 3,920–4,030 Trend acceleration depending on indicators.
July 3 (Fri) 3,900–4,080 Prone to volatility due to weekend position adjustments.
#GOLD#xauusd
Perfectly as predicted. In the last analysis, I mentioned a target of 3,950 to 3,900 if it broke below 4,000, and it has beautifully reached the TP zone marked on the horizontal line. Well done. Current situation of the latest chart (5-minute and 15-minute timeframes): • Current price: fluctuating around 3,982 to 3,996 USD. • The downtrend continues, but there are signs of a temporary rebound at the support zone of 3,959 to 3,996. • On the 15-minute chart, the blue moving average line is gradually turning upwards, making it easier for a short-term rebound from oversold conditions. • However, there are still strong resistance levels above (4,059 / 4,088 / 4,100). Future predictions: Short-term: • Main scenario: A rebound testing 3,996 to 4,000 → then losing momentum and falling again (if it cannot clearly exceed 4,059). • Alternative scenario: A strong break above 4,059 → potential to retrace to the 4,088 to 4,100 zone (likely to rise temporarily due to profit-taking from short positions). • Caution zone: If it breaks below 3,959, there is a risk of accelerating downward again. Mid-term: The overall downtrend is still in play, so unless it exceeds 4,100, the upside remains heavy. • The previous TP (around 4,000 or near 3,990) has almost been achieved. • From here, it’s prudent to take some profits and let the rest run, or to take all profits and wait for a while. • If entering a new short position, it’s a good timing to enter on a retracement to 4,059 to 4,088.
#GOLD#xauusd
I analyzed the reliability of the 3959 support line.
Based on the current charts (5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, etc.), I will evaluate the reliability of the support around 3959.661.
1. Reliability Assessment: Moderate (60-65/100 points)
• It functioned on the first test (though it broke down, it quickly rebounded).
• However, it gives the impression of acting more as a "temporary bottom" rather than a strong support.
2. Positive Factors (Points that enhance reliability)
• It aligns with recent low price levels (touched multiple times).
• It is a zone where rebounds are likely due to being oversold (low RSI) on the 15-minute and 30-minute charts.
• It is close to a psychological level (the round number of 3,960).
• A rebound occurred during NY hours (buying happened in a high liquidity time frame).
3. Negative Factors (Points that reduce reliability)
• There haven't been clear multiple tests (still mainly the first one).
• On higher time frames (4H, daily), it is within a significant downtrend, so the strength of the support is weak.
• The moving average (especially the blue MA) is still holding it down from above.
• It has already broken below the larger psychological support of 4,000, making 3959 merely a secondary support.
4. Probability of Future Scenarios (at this point)
• Continued rebound (to 4,000-4,059): 35-40%
• Re-test of 3959 → breakdown (to 3,930-3,900): 45-50% (main scenario)
• Range-bound (3,960-4,020): 15-20%
Conclusion
3959 is a "weaker support."
While it bounced once, it cannot yet be said to be a solid bottom.
Especially as long as it cannot clearly exceed 4,000, it is safer to view the downtrend as continuing, with shorts being favored.
Recommended Actions:
• If continuing short: Hold as long as it clearly holds above 3959. Partial profit-taking is recommended.
• New shorts: Enter on a retracement around 4,000-4,020.
• Stop: Consider cutting losses if it breaks below 3,950 (or 3,930).
#GOLD#xauusd
Current situation regarding the trading hours
Given the strong downtrend, there is a possibility that further downward pressure may accelerate during NY hours.
• If you are holding a short position, it is best to monitor the movements during NY hours.
• If you are aiming for a rebound, it is more reliable to check the movements during NY hours first.
Key points to note
• The period from NY hours to Japan hours typically sees the largest price movements and is more likely to establish trends.
• On days with FOMC meetings or important economic data releases, the probability of significant movements during NY hours is very high.
• The current downtrend you are observing has often accelerated during NY hours.
#GOLD#xauusd
Previous Main Forecasts
• Short-term: Strong downward pressure is dominant. $4,000 is an important support level, and if it breaks, there is a possibility of further decline to $3,950-$3,930.
• Overall Trend: Adjustment phase continues. There is a strong selling bias, and there are still no clear reversal signals.
• Positioning Guidance: Continuing short positions is not a bad idea, but consider taking profits if it falls below $3,900.
Comparison with Current Situation
• Price Movement: As predicted, it has clearly broken below $4,000 and has fallen to the $3,980 range. The anticipated downward pressure is ongoing.
• Decline Range: It has fallen about $20-$30 further from the previous point, which is within the predicted range (rather slightly weaker).
• Technicals:
• Downward channel continues.
• Moving averages are weighing down from above.
• Support at $3,980-$4,000 is functioning temporarily, but it is still weak.
Overall Assessment: The previous forecast was quite accurate. It accurately captured the continuation of the downward trend, and the movement after breaking below $4,000 is as expected. However, it has not resulted in a more rapid crash than anticipated (still within the adjustment range).
#GOLD#xauusd
GOLD Entry - Profit Taking Plan
Current Price: Around 4,155 USD (-1.27%). Short-term is leaning bearish, but the 4,100-4,000 zone is strong support.
1. Basic Stance
• Short-term (a few days to 1 week): Bearish (downside potential). Possible acceleration below 4,100.
• Medium-term (a few weeks to 1 month): Expecting a rebound if 4,000 holds.
• Risk Management: Keep risk to 1-2% of capital per trade. Recommended RR (Risk:Reward) minimum of 1:2.
2. Short (Sell) Scenario ← Current Main
Aggressive plan in line with the current trend
• Entry:
• Sell on a bounce in the 4,155-4,180 zone (near current price).
• Or after confirming resistance at 4,200-4,250.
• Stop Loss (SL): 4,250-4,280 (cut loss immediately if clearly exceeded).
• Take Profit (TP):
• TP1: 4,100 (partial profit taking 40-50%)
• TP2: 4,059-4,000 (remaining profit taking)
• TP3 (if extending): 3,950-3,900
• Expected Value: RR 1:2.5-3. Monitor after reaching 4,100.
Note: Breaking below 4,155 with increased volume can lead to acceleration.
3. Long (Buy) Scenario ← Buy on Dips
Aim for a rebound after defending the 4,000 zone
• Entry:
• Confirm rebound at support of 4,100-4,059 (green candlestick + volume).
• Ideal: Double bottom near 4,000.
• Stop Loss (SL): 50-100 pips below entry (e.g., if entering at 4,000, then 3,950).
• Take Profit (TP):
• TP1: 4,200 (partial 40%)
• TP2: 4,250-4,300
• TP3: 4,470 (Fib recovery level)
• Expected Value: RR above 1:2. Starting point for resuming long-term uptrend.
4. Rules for Trailing & Partial Profit Taking
• After reaching TP1 → Move SL of remaining position to entry price (Breakeven).
• If momentum is strong → Use trailing stop (update to recent lows/highs).
• News Response: Be cautious of sudden volatility from FOMC, U.S. employment data, and geopolitical events. Keep positions small.
#GOLD#xauusd
Outlook
• Short-term (Today to Tomorrow): There is a possibility of a rebound testing between 3,950 and 4,000. If 3,980 can be maintained, a slight recovery is expected; if it breaks below, the next targets are 3,930 to 3,900.
• About a week: Selling pressure is likely to continue. A significant rebound will be difficult unless it exceeds 4,100.
• Caution: There are signs of overselling, so there is a risk of a sharp rebound (short covering).
#SPCX#SpaceX
This is an analysis and forecast of SPCX (SpaceX stock). It is a fresh stock that recently went public (around June 12, starting at $135) and is experiencing high volatility with rapid price surges and drops. The current price is approximately $184.98 to $185.00 (-3.56%), adjusting from a post-IPO high of around $225. Analysts have a bullish target of $235 to $401, but the short-term outlook is speculative.
Chart Analysis:
- 1H/4H: After a recent sharp decline, there has been a slight rebound. The red (downward) trend is dominant, but green (upward) candles are appearing near the support level (around $180). Volume is relatively high.
- 1D: From a broader perspective, the stock has peaked after an upward trend post-IPO and is now in a corrective wave. It has slightly rebounded from a low of $172, but clear reversal signals are still weak.
- 5m (with MA): Short-term fluctuations are evident. The blue moving average line indicates a downward trend. There has been a slight rebound from the recent sharp decline, but momentum is weak. Overall, it is a short-term adjustment phase. The lock-up expiration post-IPO, profit-taking, and overall market sentiment seem to be influencing the stock.
High volume (hundreds of millions of shares) indicates liquidity, but the stock has a strong speculative nature.
Short-term forecast (for a few days to a week):
- Support: $172 to $180 zone (recent lows and psychological level). If this level is broken, the $160s may come into play.
- Resistance: $190 to $200 (recent highs and MA resistance).
- Scenarios:
- Bullish: Bouncing back from the $180 support → recovery to $195 to $210 (quick movements possible due to high volatility). News from SpaceX (successful launches, Starlink contracts, etc.) could trigger a jump.
- Bearish: Continuing decline below $172 → further adjustment (potentially into the $150s).
- Probabilistically, a range-bound movement or slight rebound is the main expectation. It is still difficult to determine the direction immediately after the IPO.
#GOLD#xauusd
📉Scalping
Short (Sell) Entry - Take Profit (Main Strategy)
1. Price retraces in the 4,170-4,180 zone (9EMA crosses below 21EMA or death cross).
2. RSI > 50-55 (confirming bearish pullback).
3. Confirm recent high resistance or pin bar/bearish engulfing.
• Stop Loss (SL): 20-40 pips above entry (dependent on ATR, e.g., if entering at 4,180, then 4,210-4,220).
• Take Profit (TP):
• TP1: +30-50 pips (partial take profit 50%) → quick profit capture.
• TP2: +70-100 pips (remaining) → towards 4,100-4,130.
• Expected RR: 1:1.5 to 2.5. One trade lasts 10-30 seconds to a few minutes.
Example (current vicinity): Short at 4,165-4,175 → SL 4,205, TP1 4,130, TP2 4,100.
📈Scalping
Long (Buy) Entry - Take Profit (Rebound Target)
Only when oversold.
• Entry Conditions:
1. Rebound at support 4,130-4,145 (9EMA crosses above or golden cross).
2. RSI recovers from < 30-35.
3. Green candle + increased volume.
• SL: 20-40 pips below entry.
• TP:
• TP1: +30-50 pips (towards 4,170-4,200).
• TP2: +80-120 pips (towards 4,200-4,250).
#GOLD#xauusd
This is an analysis of gold's verification and forecast. Currently, the price is 4,155.405 USD (-1.27%), showing strong downward pressure across multiple time frames. I will summarize based on market data from the 5-minute chart to the 1-month chart. The current situation indicates a recent decline: a significant correction from the peak (around 5,000 to nearly 5,600). In the last week to month, there has been a drop of over 10%. Technical signals show a strong sell bias on daily and weekly charts (moving averages are bearish, and MACD is also weak). There are signs of a rebound in short-term time frames (5m to 1H), but the momentum is weak. Contributing factors include a strong US dollar, expectations of delayed Fed rate cuts, and a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets due to easing geopolitical risks (related to the US-Iran ceasefire).
#GOLD#xauusd
GOLD Entry - Profit Taking Plan
Current Price: Around 4,155 USD (-1.27%). Short-term is leaning bearish, but the 4,100-4,000 zone is strong support.
1. Basic Stance
• Short-term (a few days to 1 week): Bearish (downside potential). Possible acceleration below 4,100.
• Medium-term (a few weeks to 1 month): Expecting a rebound if 4,000 holds.
• Risk Management: Keep risk to 1-2% of capital per trade. Recommended RR (Risk:Reward) minimum of 1:2.
2. Short (Sell) Scenario ← Current Main
Aggressive plan in line with the current trend
• Entry:
• Sell on a bounce in the 4,155-4,180 zone (near current price).
• Or after confirming resistance at 4,200-4,250.
• Stop Loss (SL): 4,250-4,280 (cut loss immediately if clearly exceeded).
• Take Profit (TP):
• TP1: 4,100 (partial profit taking 40-50%)
• TP2: 4,059-4,000 (remaining profit taking)
• TP3 (if extending): 3,950-3,900
• Expected Value: RR 1:2.5-3. Monitor after reaching 4,100.
Note: Breaking below 4,155 with increased volume can lead to acceleration.
3. Long (Buy) Scenario ← Buy on Dips
Aim for a rebound after defending the 4,000 zone
• Entry:
• Confirm rebound at support of 4,100-4,059 (green candlestick + volume).
• Ideal: Double bottom near 4,000.
• Stop Loss (SL): 50-100 pips below entry (e.g., if entering at 4,000, then 3,950).
• Take Profit (TP):
• TP1: 4,200 (partial 40%)
• TP2: 4,250-4,300
• TP3: 4,470 (Fib recovery level)
• Expected Value: RR above 1:2. Starting point for resuming long-term uptrend.
4. Rules for Trailing & Partial Profit Taking
• After reaching TP1 → Move SL of remaining position to entry price (Breakeven).
• If momentum is strong → Use trailing stop (update to recent lows/highs).
• News Response: Be cautious of sudden volatility from FOMC, U.S. employment data, and geopolitical events. Keep positions small.
#conartist#Fraud
The true nature of the "Fibo proprietary indicator" is simply a method that combines standard Fibonacci retracement levels (mainly 38.2%, 61.8%, 161.8%, etc.) with FVG (Fair Value Gap). It is not a special "proprietary developed indicator."
Detailed breakdown:
• Fibonacci part: Standard tools available for free to anyone on TradingView or MT4/5 (like Auto Fib Retracement). Commonly used terms include "Fibo buy zone," "retracement Fibo," and "261.8%," which are regular Fibonacci levels, not unique custom code.
• FVG part: Fair Value Gap. This is a concept from recent popular methods like ICT (Inner Circle Trader) and SMC (Smart Money Concept), targeting gaps in candlestick patterns (areas where prices suddenly jumped, leaving a blank zone). It is a widely understood concept that many people explain and share for free.
• Combination: Entry is based on finding "confluence" where Fibonacci levels overlap with FVG zones. This is also a standard pattern among SMC traders, making it a template method rather than a unique one.
Some posts claim to have created a proprietary indicator using Fibonacci, but in reality, they are just labeling and combining these standard tools in their own way. A true proprietary indicator (a custom one created from scratch in Pine Script) would have code published and detailed explanations, but that is not the case here.
Why call it "proprietary"?
• To enhance credibility and attract followers → Ultimately leading to paid communities, copy trading, products, or prop firms through DMs or links (https://t.co/Qfqy2kD55a), which is a typical tactic.
• Flashy claims of 15,000% or similar results are unverifiable self-reports. Achieving such numbers consistently in real FX trading is nearly impossible.
#BTC#BTCUSD
It's been a while since I analyzed and predicted BTC.
Current price is around $64,450 (up about 1.5%). Based on the 1D to 5m charts and the latest market conditions, I will summarize specific zones for short positions.
Entry zone (recommended for selling on a bounce):
If you're looking to add to your short or enter a new position, target the high price area where upward pressure is weakening.
• Entry zone: 64,700 to 65,200 (recent high + 4H resistance + psychological level. Ideally, confirm a bearish candle after exceeding 65,000)
• Second entry zone: 64,500 to 64,800 (partial addition on a bounce near the current price)
• Deeper entry: 65,500 to 66,000 (major resistance, profit-taking zone for bullish forces)
Entry conditions:
• Failure to update the high on the 1H/4H or appearance of a bearish candle
• Confirmation of RSI overheating (above 70)
• Decrease in volume + heavy upper price
Profit-taking zone (take profit):
Let's reduce risk by taking profits in stages (for shorts, profit from the decline).
Partial profit-taking ① 64,200 to 64,000
Partial profit-taking ② 63,500 to 63,000
Final profit-taking 62,800 to 62,000
#GOLD#xauusd
It is a typical range-bound market. Currently, it is fluctuating between approximately $4,189 and $4,191, with small movements observed around $4,200, indicating a consolidation phase. The momentum of the downtrend is weakening, but there is no clear upward movement.
Review:
• Short-term (5 minutes/15 minutes): It is fluctuating up and down, but lacks direction.
• Overall: A range is forming in the zone of $4,180 to $4,200. Movement above $4,200 or below $4,170 could trigger the next move.
#GOLD#xauusd
The prediction has been spot on! ☺️ Currently at about $4,200.22, it has firmly rebounded from the 4,180 zone and recovered to 4,200. In the short term, it seems to be showing signs of having hit the bottom.