The 2027 race is shaping up to be Kalonzo versus Ruto.
Rigathi has very little room to manoeuvre. No matter the noise, the political reality is that Mt Kenya is likely to vote for Kalonzo if the opposition remains united. That alone puts Ruto in a very difficult position.
There is also the possibility of a last-minute national wave against Ruto. Kenyan elections can shift very fast when pain, anger and fatigue mature at the same time. If that wave comes, it will not remain confined to one region.
Interestingly, Kalonzo could even raid Luo Nyanza if the opposition handles the politics properly. He may not need to win it outright, but getting a serious percentage there, even 50 percent or more in some areas, would completely change the arithmetic.
That is why Ruto’s position is tougher than many people imagine. His path depends on opposition disunity, regional confusion and voter apathy.
If the opposition stays united, avoids childish ego wars and presents Kalonzo as the calm transition candidate after a hard season, Ruto cant win even if he rigs.